Maguire
DEFHarry Maguire · Man Utd · £5.0m · 17.3% owned · 1 pts
⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
2.5
xPts 3
6.1
xPts 5
10.3
Rating
37
WATCHMEDConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Maguire here
- ▸Home vs IPS: we project MUN for 2.14 goals (our difficulty 1.3/5)
- ▸54% start probability, 50 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.06 xG90, 0.10 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 22%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.13 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 43/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸10.3 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.0m (2.07 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs IPS
| Appearance points | 1.09 |
| Goal points | 0.28 |
| Assist points | 0.26 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.87 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.01 |
| Bonus points | 0.13 |
| Goals conceded | -0.04 |
| Cards / other | -0.07 |
| Predicted FPL points | 2.5 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | IPS (H) | 49.5 | 5% | 22% | 2.5 |
| 3 | EVE (A) | 49.5 | 3% | 13% | 1.9 |
| 4 | MCI (H) | 49.5 | 3% | 10% | 1.7 |
| 5 | FUL (A) | 49.5 | 3% | 13% | 2.0 |
| 6 | TOT (H) | 49.5 | 4% | 19% | 2.3 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
6
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)65%
Chance of 5+ points22%
Chance of 10+ points2%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.06
xA90
0.10
xGI90
0.16
BPS90
16.7
DefCon90
7.3
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.01
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.4
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HUL (A) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers