Mazraoui
DEFNoussair Mazraoui · Man Utd · £4.5m · 0.7% owned · 1 pts
⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.8
xPts 3
4.5
xPts 5
7.7
Rating
25
SELLMEDConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Mazraoui here
- ▸Home vs IPS: we project MUN for 2.14 goals (our difficulty 1.3/5)
- ▸41% start probability, 34 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.07 xG90, 0.05 xA90 (shrunk to 79 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 17%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.07 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 51/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸7.7 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £4.5m (1.70 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs IPS
| Appearance points | 0.87 |
| Goal points | 0.23 |
| Assist points | 0.08 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.67 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.07 |
| Goals conceded | -0.02 |
| Cards / other | -0.07 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.8 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | IPS (H) | 33.9 | 4% | 17% | 1.8 |
| 3 | EVE (A) | 33.9 | 2% | 10% | 1.4 |
| 4 | MCI (H) | 33.9 | 2% | 8% | 1.3 |
| 5 | FUL (A) | 33.9 | 3% | 10% | 1.5 |
| 6 | TOT (H) | 33.9 | 3% | 14% | 1.7 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
6
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)76%
Chance of 5+ points13%
Chance of 10+ points1%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.07
xA90
0.05
xGI90
0.12
BPS90
17.3
DefCon90
7.7
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.15
Minutes
79
Starts
1
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.3
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HUL (A) | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers