Shaw
DEFLuke Shaw · Man Utd · £4.5m · 19.9% owned · 1 pts
xPts GW
3.6
xPts 3
8.5
xPts 5
14.4
Rating
60
BUYLOWConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Shaw here
- ▸Home vs IPS: we project MUN for 2.14 goals (our difficulty 1.3/5)
- ▸86% start probability, 78 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.02 xG90, 0.09 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 35%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.22 expected bonus points
- ▸14.4 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £4.5m (3.20 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs IPS
| Appearance points | 1.67 |
| Goal points | 0.17 |
| Assist points | 0.37 |
| Clean sheet points | 1.38 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.08 |
| Bonus points | 0.22 |
| Goals conceded | -0.14 |
| Cards / other | -0.16 |
| Predicted FPL points | 3.6 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | IPS (H) | 78 | 3% | 35% | 3.6 |
| 3 | EVE (A) | 78 | 2% | 21% | 2.6 |
| 4 | MCI (H) | 78 | 2% | 16% | 2.3 |
| 5 | FUL (A) | 78 | 2% | 21% | 2.7 |
| 6 | TOT (H) | 78 | 2% | 30% | 3.2 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
1
Median
3
Ceiling (90th)
7
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)48%
Chance of 5+ points40%
Chance of 10+ points2%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.02
xA90
0.09
xGI90
0.11
BPS90
13.3
DefCon90
6.1
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.01
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.3
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HUL (A) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers