Botman
DEFSven Botman · Newcastle · £5.0m · 0.5% owned · 3 pts
📈 Fixtures Improving⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.9
xPts 3
6.2
xPts 5
11.0
Rating
41
WATCHMEDConfidence: LOWSHORT-TERM BUY
Why we rank Botman here
- ▸Away vs TOT: we project NEW for 1.38 goals (our difficulty 2.9/5)
- ▸57% start probability, 52 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.06 xG90, 0.04 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 13%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.08 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 41/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸11.0 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.0m (2.20 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at TOT
| Appearance points | 1.15 |
| Goal points | 0.21 |
| Assist points | 0.07 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.50 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.07 |
| Bonus points | 0.08 |
| Goals conceded | -0.11 |
| Cards / other | -0.06 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.9 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | TOT (A) | 52.4 | 4% | 13% | 1.9 |
| 3 | BOU (H) | 52.4 | 5% | 16% | 2.2 |
| 4 | LEE (A) | 52.4 | 4% | 15% | 2.0 |
| 5 | HUL (H) | 52.4 | 5% | 21% | 2.5 |
| 6 | COV (A) | 52.4 | 5% | 19% | 2.3 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
6
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)78%
Chance of 5+ points13%
Chance of 10+ points1%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.06
xA90
0.04
xGI90
0.11
BPS90
14.3
DefCon90
9.7
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
2.98
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
3.0
PPM
3.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LIV (H) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers