Barnes
MIDHarvey Barnes · Newcastle · £6.0m · 1.1% owned · 2 pts
📈 Fixtures Improving⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
2.2
xPts 3
6.9
xPts 5
12.2
Rating
43
WATCHMEDConfidence: LOWSHORT-TERM BUY
Why we rank Barnes here
- ▸Away vs TOT: we project NEW for 1.38 goals (our difficulty 2.9/5)
- ▸57% start probability, 52 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.23 xG90, 0.11 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.11 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 41/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸12.2 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £6.0m (2.03 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at TOT
| Appearance points | 1.14 |
| Goal points | 0.65 |
| Assist points | 0.19 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.12 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.11 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.04 |
| Predicted FPL points | 2.2 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | TOT (A) | 52 | 12% | 13% | 2.2 |
| 3 | BOU (H) | 52 | 15% | 16% | 2.5 |
| 4 | LEE (A) | 52 | 12% | 15% | 2.2 |
| 5 | HUL (H) | 52 | 18% | 21% | 2.7 |
| 6 | COV (A) | 52 | 17% | 18% | 2.6 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
5
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)74%
Chance of 5+ points16%
Chance of 10+ points1%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.23
xA90
0.11
xGI90
0.34
BPS90
15.3
DefCon90
6.2
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
2.98
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
2.0
PPM
2.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.1
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LIV (H) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.07 | 2 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers