L.Miley
MIDLewis Miley · Newcastle · £5.5m · 0.1% owned · 3 pts
📈 Fixtures Improving⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.4
xPts 3
4.4
xPts 5
7.7
Rating
27
SELLMEDConfidence: LOWSHORT-TERM BUY
Why we rank L.Miley here
- ▸Away vs TOT: we project NEW for 1.38 goals (our difficulty 2.9/5)
- ▸50% start probability, 38 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.09 xG90, 0.11 xA90 (shrunk to 75 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.06 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 46/100 — Flagged: 100% chance of playing
- ▸7.7 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.5m (1.41 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at TOT
| Appearance points | 1.02 |
| Goal points | 0.20 |
| Assist points | 0.14 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.11 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.06 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.10 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.4 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | TOT (A) | 38.3 | 4% | 11% | 1.4 |
| 3 | BOU (H) | 38.3 | 5% | 14% | 1.6 |
| 4 | LEE (A) | 38.3 | 4% | 13% | 1.4 |
| 5 | HUL (H) | 38.3 | 6% | 18% | 1.7 |
| 6 | COV (A) | 38.3 | 5% | 16% | 1.6 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
3
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)85%
Chance of 5+ points6%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.09
xA90
0.11
xGI90
0.20
BPS90
17.8
DefCon90
10.0
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
2.33
Minutes
75
Starts
1
Form
3.0
PPM
3.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.1
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LIV (H) | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | 3 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers