Barkley
MIDRoss Barkley · Aston Villa · £5.0m · 0.2% owned · 2 pts
⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.0
xPts 3
3.2
xPts 5
5.4
Rating
14
SELLMEDConfidence: LOWFIXTURES TURN
Why we rank Barkley here
- ▸Home vs ARS: we project AVL for 0.88 goals (our difficulty 4.1/5)
- ▸39% start probability, 30 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.14 xG90, 0.11 xA90 (shrunk to 73 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.05 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 52/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸5.4 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.0m (1.08 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs ARS
| Appearance points | 0.70 |
| Goal points | 0.14 |
| Assist points | 0.07 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.03 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.05 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.04 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.0 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | ARS (H) | 29.6 | 3% | 3% | 1.0 |
| 3 | HUL (A) | 29.6 | 4% | 7% | 1.1 |
| 4 | NFO (H) | 29.6 | 5% | 9% | 1.1 |
| 5 | TOT (A) | 29.6 | 4% | 5% | 1.1 |
| 6 | BRE (H) | 29.6 | 4% | 7% | 1.1 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)93%
Chance of 5+ points3%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.14
xA90
0.11
xGI90
0.25
BPS90
18.0
DefCon90
7.2
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
4.38
Minutes
73
Starts
1
Form
2.0
PPM
2.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.1
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BHA (A) | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | 2 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers