Willock
MIDJoe Willock · Newcastle · £5.0m · 0.2% owned · 6 pts
🔥 Hot Form📈 Fixtures Improving⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.6
xPts 3
5.0
xPts 5
8.7
Rating
23
SELLHIGHConfidence: LOWSHORT-TERM BUY
Why we rank Willock here
- ▸Away vs TOT: we project NEW for 1.38 goals (our difficulty 2.9/5)
- ▸19% start probability, 31 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.13 xG90, 0.13 xA90 (shrunk to 34 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.06 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 64/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸8.7 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.0m (1.74 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at TOT
| Appearance points | 1.24 |
| Goal points | 0.22 |
| Assist points | 0.14 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.06 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.06 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.07 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.6 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | TOT (A) | 31.3 | 4% | 6% | 1.6 |
| 3 | BOU (H) | 31.3 | 5% | 8% | 1.8 |
| 4 | LEE (A) | 31.3 | 4% | 7% | 1.6 |
| 5 | HUL (H) | 31.3 | 6% | 10% | 1.9 |
| 6 | COV (A) | 31.3 | 6% | 9% | 1.8 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
1
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
3
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)88%
Chance of 5+ points6%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.13
xA90
0.13
xGI90
0.26
BPS90
19.3
DefCon90
8.3
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
3.97
Minutes
34
Starts
0
Form
6.0
PPM
6.0
G+A vs xGI
+0.7
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LIV (H) | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 6 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers