N.Williams
DEFNeco Williams · Nott'm Forest · £5.0m · 9.3% owned · 2 pts
📈 Fixtures Improving🚩 Set Pieces
xPts GW
1.7
xPts 3
7.3
xPts 5
13.6
Rating
53
HOLDLOWConfidence: LOWSELL AFTER GW4
Why we rank N.Williams here
- ▸Away vs LIV: we project NFO for 0.75 goals (our difficulty 4.8/5)
- ▸84% start probability, 76 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.05 xG90, 0.09 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 7%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.12 expected bonus points
- ▸13.6 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.0m (2.73 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at LIV
| Appearance points | 1.63 |
| Goal points | 0.12 |
| Assist points | 0.12 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.29 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.12 |
| Bonus points | 0.12 |
| Goals conceded | -0.58 |
| Cards / other | -0.11 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.7 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | LIV (A) | 75.8 | 2% | 7% | 1.7 |
| 3 | TOT (H) | 75.8 | 4% | 25% | 3.0 |
| 4 | AVL (A) | 75.8 | 3% | 18% | 2.6 |
| 5 | COV (H) | 75.8 | 5% | 33% | 3.7 |
| 6 | CRY (A) | 75.8 | 3% | 19% | 2.6 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
-1
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
4
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)82%
Chance of 5+ points8%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.05
xA90
0.09
xGI90
0.13
BPS90
14.9
DefCon90
6.9
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.47
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
2.0
PPM
2.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LEE (H) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers