Morato
DEFFelipe Rodrigues da Silva · Nott'm Forest · £5.0m · 0.0% owned · 0 pts
📈 Fixtures Improving⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
0.7
xPts 3
2.5
xPts 5
4.4
Rating
7
SELLHIGHConfidence: LOWSELL AFTER GW4
Why we rank Morato here
- ▸Away vs LIV: we project NFO for 0.75 goals (our difficulty 4.8/5)
- ▸25% start probability, 21 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.08 xG90, 0.03 xA90 (shrunk to 0 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 2%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.03 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 61/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸4.4 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.0m (0.89 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at LIV
| Appearance points | 0.57 |
| Goal points | 0.06 |
| Assist points | 0.01 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.09 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.03 |
| Goals conceded | -0.03 |
| Cards / other | -0.06 |
| Predicted FPL points | 0.7 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | LIV (A) | 20.9 | 1% | 2% | 0.7 |
| 3 | TOT (H) | 20.9 | 2% | 7% | 0.9 |
| 4 | AVL (A) | 20.9 | 1% | 6% | 0.8 |
| 5 | COV (H) | 20.9 | 2% | 10% | 1.1 |
| 6 | CRY (A) | 20.9 | 1% | 6% | 0.9 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
0
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)96%
Chance of 5+ points2%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.08
xA90
0.03
xGI90
0.11
BPS90
14.4
DefCon90
8.8
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.00
Minutes
0
Starts
0
Form
0.0
PPM
0.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LEE (H) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers