Aina
DEFOla Aina · Nott'm Forest · £4.5m · 3.5% owned · 5 pts
🔥 Hot Form📈 Fixtures Improving⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
0.9
xPts 3
3.5
xPts 5
6.4
Rating
21
SELLMEDConfidence: LOWSELL AFTER GW4
Why we rank Aina here
- ▸Away vs LIV: we project NFO for 0.75 goals (our difficulty 4.8/5)
- ▸51% start probability, 39 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.04 xG90, 0.08 xA90 (shrunk to 73 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 3%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.05 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 45/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸6.4 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £4.5m (1.42 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at LIV
| Appearance points | 0.89 |
| Goal points | 0.05 |
| Assist points | 0.05 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.12 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.05 |
| Goals conceded | -0.09 |
| Cards / other | -0.14 |
| Predicted FPL points | 0.9 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | LIV (A) | 38.5 | 1% | 3% | 0.9 |
| 3 | TOT (H) | 38.5 | 1% | 10% | 1.4 |
| 4 | AVL (A) | 38.5 | 1% | 8% | 1.2 |
| 5 | COV (H) | 38.5 | 2% | 14% | 1.6 |
| 6 | CRY (A) | 38.5 | 1% | 8% | 1.2 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)93%
Chance of 5+ points3%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.04
xA90
0.08
xGI90
0.11
BPS90
17.4
DefCon90
6.7
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.42
Minutes
73
Starts
1
Form
5.0
PPM
5.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.2
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LEE (H) | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | 5 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers