Igor Jesus
FWDIgor Jesus Maciel da Cruz · Nott'm Forest · £6.0m · 3.9% owned · 2 pts
📈 Fixtures Improving
xPts GW
1.9
xPts 3
6.4
xPts 5
11.3
Rating
41
WATCHMEDConfidence: LOWSELL AFTER GW4
Why we rank Igor Jesus here
- ▸Away vs LIV: we project NFO for 0.75 goals (our difficulty 4.8/5)
- ▸70% start probability, 64 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.27 xG90, 0.07 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.11 expected bonus points
- ▸11.3 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £6.0m (1.89 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at LIV
| Appearance points | 1.39 |
| Goal points | 0.41 |
| Assist points | 0.08 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.00 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.11 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.06 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.9 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | LIV (A) | 64.1 | 10% | 6% | 1.9 |
| 3 | TOT (H) | 64.1 | 17% | 21% | 2.3 |
| 4 | AVL (A) | 64.1 | 14% | 15% | 2.1 |
| 5 | COV (H) | 64.1 | 22% | 28% | 2.7 |
| 6 | CRY (A) | 64.1 | 14% | 16% | 2.2 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
4
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)83%
Chance of 5+ points10%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.27
xA90
0.07
xGI90
0.34
BPS90
14.8
DefCon90
4.4
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.47
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
2.0
PPM
2.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.2
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LEE (H) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.22 | 2 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers