Bergvall
MIDLucas Bergvall · Spurs · £5.5m · 0.2% owned · 1 pts
⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.1
xPts 3
3.1
xPts 5
5.2
Rating
15
SELLMEDConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Bergvall here
- ▸Home vs NEW: we project TOT for 1.44 goals (our difficulty 2.8/5)
- ▸44% start probability, 21 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.11 xG90, 0.08 xA90 (shrunk to 45 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.03 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 49/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸5.2 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.5m (0.94 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs NEW
| Appearance points | 0.79 |
| Goal points | 0.13 |
| Assist points | 0.06 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.07 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.03 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.04 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.1 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NEW (H) | 21.3 | 3% | 7% | 1.1 |
| 3 | NFO (A) | 21.3 | 2% | 8% | 1.0 |
| 4 | EVE (H) | 21.3 | 3% | 8% | 1.1 |
| 5 | AVL (H) | 21.3 | 3% | 9% | 1.1 |
| 6 | MUN (A) | 21.3 | 2% | 5% | 1.0 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)93%
Chance of 5+ points3%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.11
xA90
0.08
xGI90
0.19
BPS90
14.1
DefCon90
8.7
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
3.40
Minutes
45
Starts
1
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BRE (A) | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers