Ballard
DEFDaniel Ballard · Sunderland · £5.0m · 5.2% owned · 0 pts
xPts GW
2.0
xPts 3
5.0
xPts 5
8.1
Rating
27
SELLMEDConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Ballard here
- ▸Home vs FUL: we project SUN for 1.54 goals (our difficulty 2.7/5)
- ▸62% start probability, 57 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.07 xG90, 0.03 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 13%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.09 expected bonus points
- ▸8.1 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.0m (1.62 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs FUL
| Appearance points | 1.24 |
| Goal points | 0.31 |
| Assist points | 0.07 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.53 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.13 |
| Bonus points | 0.09 |
| Goals conceded | -0.14 |
| Cards / other | -0.20 |
| Predicted FPL points | 2.0 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FUL (H) | 56.9 | 5% | 13% | 2.0 |
| 3 | BRE (A) | 56.9 | 3% | 8% | 1.6 |
| 4 | ARS (H) | 56.9 | 3% | 6% | 1.4 |
| 5 | MCI (A) | 56.9 | 2% | 4% | 1.2 |
| 6 | BHA (H) | 56.9 | 4% | 11% | 1.8 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
6
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)74%
Chance of 5+ points16%
Chance of 10+ points1%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.07
xA90
0.03
xGI90
0.11
BPS90
13.1
DefCon90
9.8
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.80
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
0.0
PPM
0.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IPS (A) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers