Alderete
DEFOmar Alderete · Sunderland · £5.0m · 0.5% owned · 1 pts
⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
2.2
xPts 3
5.7
xPts 5
9.2
Rating
28
SELLMEDConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Alderete here
- ▸Home vs FUL: we project SUN for 1.54 goals (our difficulty 2.7/5)
- ▸54% start probability, 51 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.05 xG90, 0.04 xA90 (shrunk to 23 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 12%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.07 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 43/100 — Flagged: 100% chance of playing
- ▸9.2 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.0m (1.84 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs FUL
| Appearance points | 1.50 |
| Goal points | 0.19 |
| Assist points | 0.07 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.49 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.06 |
| Bonus points | 0.07 |
| Goals conceded | -0.11 |
| Cards / other | -0.10 |
| Predicted FPL points | 2.2 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FUL (H) | 50.8 | 3% | 12% | 2.2 |
| 3 | BRE (A) | 50.8 | 2% | 8% | 1.8 |
| 4 | ARS (H) | 50.8 | 2% | 5% | 1.7 |
| 5 | MCI (A) | 50.8 | 1% | 3% | 1.5 |
| 6 | BHA (H) | 50.8 | 2% | 10% | 2.0 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
1
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
6
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)77%
Chance of 5+ points16%
Chance of 10+ points1%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.05
xA90
0.04
xGI90
0.09
BPS90
13.5
DefCon90
8.9
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.39
Minutes
23
Starts
0
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IPS (A) | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers