Watkins
FWDOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · £8.0m · 8.7% owned · 0 pts
⚽ Goal Threat
xPts GW
2.0
xPts 3
7.2
xPts 5
11.9
Rating
38
WATCHMEDConfidence: LOWFIXTURES TURN
Why we rank Watkins here
- ▸Home vs ARS: we project AVL for 0.88 goals (our difficulty 4.1/5)
- ▸60% start probability, 48 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.51 xG90, 0.08 xA90 (shrunk to 0 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.14 expected bonus points
- ▸11.9 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £8.0m (1.49 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs ARS
| Appearance points | 1.21 |
| Goal points | 0.68 |
| Assist points | 0.08 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.00 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.14 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.07 |
| Predicted FPL points | 2.0 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | ARS (H) | 48.1 | 16% | 8% | 2.0 |
| 3 | HUL (A) | 48.1 | 23% | 16% | 2.5 |
| 4 | NFO (H) | 48.1 | 24% | 19% | 2.6 |
| 5 | TOT (A) | 48.1 | 20% | 12% | 2.3 |
| 6 | BRE (H) | 48.1 | 22% | 15% | 2.5 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
5
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)77%
Chance of 5+ points13%
Chance of 10+ points1%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.51
xA90
0.08
xGI90
0.59
BPS90
20.1
DefCon90
3.4
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.00
Minutes
0
Starts
0
Form
0.0
PPM
0.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BHA (A) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers