Tzolis
MIDChristos Tzolis · Arsenal · £6.5m · 25.8% owned · 6 pts
🔥 Hot Form⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
2.1
xPts 3
6.4
xPts 5
10.7
Rating
38
WATCHMEDConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Tzolis here
- ▸Away vs AVL: we project ARS for 1.97 goals (our difficulty 1.5/5)
- ▸50% start probability, 39 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.17 xG90, 0.16 xA90 (shrunk to 75 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.10 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 45/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸10.6 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £6.5m (1.64 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at AVL
| Appearance points | 1.03 |
| Goal points | 0.52 |
| Assist points | 0.30 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.19 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.10 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.06 |
| Predicted FPL points | 2.1 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AVL (A) | 38.9 | 10% | 19% | 2.1 |
| 3 | CHE (H) | 38.9 | 10% | 16% | 2.0 |
| 4 | SUN (A) | 38.9 | 11% | 21% | 2.3 |
| 5 | BHA (A) | 38.9 | 8% | 16% | 1.9 |
| 6 | LEE (H) | 38.9 | 12% | 25% | 2.3 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
5
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)71%
Chance of 5+ points15%
Chance of 10+ points1%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.17
xA90
0.16
xGI90
0.34
BPS90
19.6
DefCon90
8.3
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.07
Minutes
75
Starts
1
Form
6.0
PPM
6.0
G+A vs xGI
+0.7
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | COV (H) | 75 | 0 | 1 | 0.19 | 6 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers