Horníček
GKPLukás Hornícek · Newcastle · £5.0m · 0.7% owned · 1 pts
📈 Fixtures Improving⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.6
xPts 3
4.8
xPts 5
8.2
Rating
27
SELLMEDConfidence: LOWSHORT-TERM BUY
Why we rank Horníček here
- ▸Away vs TOT: we project NEW for 1.38 goals (our difficulty 2.9/5)
- ▸41% start probability, 38 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.00 xG90, 0.01 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 9%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.05 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 51/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸8.2 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.0m (1.64 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at TOT
| Appearance points | 0.85 |
| Goal points | 0.02 |
| Assist points | 0.01 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.36 |
| Save points | 0.46 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.05 |
| Goals conceded | -0.05 |
| Cards / other | -0.13 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.6 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | TOT (A) | 37.9 | 0% | 9% | 1.6 |
| 3 | BOU (H) | 37.9 | 0% | 12% | 1.6 |
| 4 | LEE (A) | 37.9 | 0% | 11% | 1.6 |
| 5 | HUL (H) | 37.9 | 0% | 15% | 1.7 |
| 6 | COV (A) | 37.9 | 0% | 13% | 1.7 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
3
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)89%
Chance of 5+ points5%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.00
xA90
0.01
xGI90
0.01
BPS90
16.9
DefCon90
0.0
Saves90
3.19
xGC90
2.98
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LIV (H) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers