Tomiyasu
DEFTakehiro Tomiyasu · Crystal Palace · £4.5m · 0.4% owned · 1 pts
⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.1
xPts 3
3.8
xPts 5
6.3
Rating
12
AVOIDHIGHConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Tomiyasu here
- ▸Home vs MCI: we project CRY for 0.94 goals (our difficulty 4.0/5)
- ▸15% start probability, 24 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.05 xG90, 0.06 xA90 (shrunk to 18 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 3%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.04 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 67/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸6.3 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £4.5m (1.41 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs MCI
| Appearance points | 0.96 |
| Goal points | 0.05 |
| Assist points | 0.03 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.11 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.04 |
| Goals conceded | -0.02 |
| Cards / other | -0.04 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.1 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | MCI (H) | 24.2 | 1% | 3% | 1.1 |
| 3 | FUL (A) | 24.2 | 1% | 4% | 1.2 |
| 4 | IPS (H) | 24.2 | 2% | 7% | 1.4 |
| 5 | LEE (A) | 24.2 | 1% | 5% | 1.2 |
| 6 | NFO (H) | 24.2 | 1% | 6% | 1.3 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)94%
Chance of 5+ points3%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.05
xA90
0.06
xGI90
0.11
BPS90
16.0
DefCon90
7.4
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.70
Minutes
18
Starts
0
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EVE (A) | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers