Araujo
DEFRonald Araujo · Liverpool · £5.5m · 2.7% owned · 1 pts
📉 Fixtures Worsening⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.9
xPts 3
5.7
xPts 5
8.9
Rating
26
SELLHIGHConfidence: LOWBUY BEFORE GW5
Why we rank Araujo here
- ▸Home vs NFO: we project LIV for 2.38 goals (our difficulty 1.0/5)
- ▸22% start probability, 30 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.06 xG90, 0.08 xA90 (shrunk to 20 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 12%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.06 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 63/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸8.9 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.5m (1.63 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs NFO
| Appearance points | 1.11 |
| Goal points | 0.20 |
| Assist points | 0.13 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.47 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.06 |
| Goals conceded | -0.01 |
| Cards / other | -0.05 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.9 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NFO (H) | 29.6 | 3% | 12% | 1.9 |
| 3 | IPS (A) | 29.6 | 3% | 10% | 1.8 |
| 4 | FUL (H) | 29.6 | 4% | 10% | 1.9 |
| 5 | BOU (A) | 29.6 | 3% | 8% | 1.7 |
| 6 | MCI (H) | 29.6 | 2% | 7% | 1.6 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
5
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)80%
Chance of 5+ points14%
Chance of 10+ points1%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.06
xA90
0.08
xGI90
0.14
BPS90
17.6
DefCon90
8.0
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
2.43
Minutes
20
Starts
0
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NEW (A) | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers