Herrington
DEFLucas Herrington · Hull City · £4.0m · 0.7% owned · 1 pts
⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.5
xPts 3
4.2
xPts 5
6.9
Rating
12
AVOIDHIGHConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Herrington here
- ▸Away vs COV: we project HUL for 1.30 goals (our difficulty 2.8/5)
- ▸12% start probability, 27 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.04 xG90, 0.05 xA90 (shrunk to 26 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 5%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.04 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 69/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸6.9 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £4.0m (1.73 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at COV
| Appearance points | 1.18 |
| Goal points | 0.07 |
| Assist points | 0.04 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.20 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.04 |
| Goals conceded | -0.01 |
| Cards / other | -0.04 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.5 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | COV (A) | 26.8 | 1% | 5% | 1.5 |
| 3 | AVL (H) | 26.8 | 1% | 5% | 1.4 |
| 4 | CHE (A) | 26.8 | 1% | 1% | 1.3 |
| 5 | NEW (A) | 26.8 | 1% | 2% | 1.3 |
| 6 | EVE (H) | 26.8 | 1% | 4% | 1.4 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
1
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)91%
Chance of 5+ points6%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.04
xA90
0.05
xGI90
0.09
BPS90
15.2
DefCon90
7.9
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
3.32
Minutes
26
Starts
0
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MUN (H) | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers