Ruggeri
DEFMatteo Ruggeri · Aston Villa · £4.5m · 0.1% owned · 1 pts
⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
0.7
xPts 3
2.5
xPts 5
4.1
Rating
4
AVOIDHIGHConfidence: LOWFIXTURES TURN
Why we rank Ruggeri here
- ▸Home vs ARS: we project AVL for 0.88 goals (our difficulty 4.1/5)
- ▸15% start probability, 17 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.05 xG90, 0.06 xA90 (shrunk to 8 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 2%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.03 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 67/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸4.1 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £4.5m (0.92 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs ARS
| Appearance points | 0.59 |
| Goal points | 0.04 |
| Assist points | 0.02 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.09 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.03 |
| Goals conceded | -0.01 |
| Cards / other | -0.03 |
| Predicted FPL points | 0.7 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | ARS (H) | 17.2 | 1% | 2% | 0.7 |
| 3 | HUL (A) | 17.2 | 1% | 5% | 0.9 |
| 4 | NFO (H) | 17.2 | 1% | 6% | 0.9 |
| 5 | TOT (A) | 17.2 | 1% | 4% | 0.8 |
| 6 | BRE (H) | 17.2 | 1% | 4% | 0.8 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
0
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)96%
Chance of 5+ points2%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.05
xA90
0.06
xGI90
0.11
BPS90
16.3
DefCon90
7.8
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.58
Minutes
8
Starts
0
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BHA (A) | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers