Elvedi
DEFNico Elvedi · Leeds · £4.5m · 0.0% owned · 0 pts
⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
0.6
xPts 3
1.8
xPts 5
2.9
Rating
0
AVOIDHIGHConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Elvedi here
- ▸Home vs BRE: we project LEE for 1.18 goals (our difficulty 2.9/5)
- ▸15% start probability, 14 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.05 xG90, 0.06 xA90 (shrunk to 0 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 4%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.03 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 67/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸2.9 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £4.5m (0.65 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs BRE
| Appearance points | 0.40 |
| Goal points | 0.04 |
| Assist points | 0.02 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.17 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.03 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.02 |
| Predicted FPL points | 0.6 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BRE (H) | 13.7 | 1% | 4% | 0.6 |
| 3 | BHA (A) | 13.7 | 1% | 3% | 0.6 |
| 4 | NEW (H) | 13.7 | 1% | 4% | 0.6 |
| 5 | CRY (H) | 13.7 | 1% | 5% | 0.7 |
| 6 | ARS (A) | 13.7 | 0% | 1% | 0.5 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
0
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)94%
Chance of 5+ points2%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.05
xA90
0.06
xGI90
0.11
BPS90
16.0
DefCon90
7.5
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.00
Minutes
0
Starts
0
Form
0.0
PPM
0.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NFO (A) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers