Hill
DEFJames Hill · Bournemouth · £5.5m · 0.9% owned · 1 pts
📉 Fixtures Worsening
xPts GW
2.1
xPts 3
5.7
xPts 5
8.7
Rating
29
SELLMEDConfidence: LOWFIXTURES TURN
Why we rank Hill here
- ▸Home vs EVE: we project BOU for 1.43 goals (our difficulty 2.6/5)
- ▸60% start probability, 55 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.04 xG90, 0.05 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 16%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.09 expected bonus points
- ▸8.7 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.5m (1.58 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs EVE
| Appearance points | 1.21 |
| Goal points | 0.14 |
| Assist points | 0.09 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.65 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.09 |
| Bonus points | 0.09 |
| Goals conceded | -0.10 |
| Cards / other | -0.10 |
| Predicted FPL points | 2.1 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | EVE (H) | 55.1 | 2% | 16% | 2.1 |
| 3 | NEW (A) | 55.1 | 2% | 9% | 1.6 |
| 4 | BRE (H) | 55.1 | 2% | 16% | 2.0 |
| 5 | LIV (H) | 55.1 | 2% | 8% | 1.6 |
| 6 | CHE (A) | 55.1 | 2% | 6% | 1.4 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
6
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)74%
Chance of 5+ points15%
Chance of 10+ points1%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.04
xA90
0.05
xGI90
0.08
BPS90
13.9
DefCon90
9.3
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
2.25
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MCI (A) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers