Jebbison
FWDDaniel Jebbison · Bournemouth · £5.0m · 0.0% owned · 1 pts
📉 Fixtures Worsening⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.3
xPts 3
3.9
xPts 5
6.3
Rating
11
SELLHIGHConfidence: LOWFIXTURES TURN
Why we rank Jebbison here
- ▸Home vs EVE: we project BOU for 1.43 goals (our difficulty 2.6/5)
- ▸18% start probability, 24 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.30 xG90, 0.11 xA90 (shrunk to 15 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.05 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 65/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸6.3 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.0m (1.26 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs EVE
| Appearance points | 0.89 |
| Goal points | 0.33 |
| Assist points | 0.09 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.00 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.05 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.04 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.3 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | EVE (H) | 24.3 | 8% | 6% | 1.3 |
| 3 | NEW (A) | 24.3 | 7% | 4% | 1.2 |
| 4 | BRE (H) | 24.3 | 8% | 6% | 1.3 |
| 5 | LIV (H) | 24.3 | 6% | 3% | 1.2 |
| 6 | CHE (A) | 24.3 | 6% | 2% | 1.2 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
4
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)88%
Chance of 5+ points6%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.30
xA90
0.11
xGI90
0.41
BPS90
16.0
DefCon90
4.5
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.86
Minutes
15
Starts
0
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.1
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MCI (A) | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers