Smith
DEFAdam Smith · Bournemouth · £4.5m · 0.1% owned · 1 pts
📉 Fixtures Worsening⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.4
xPts 3
4.0
xPts 5
6.2
Rating
18
SELLMEDConfidence: LOWFIXTURES TURN
Why we rank Smith here
- ▸Home vs EVE: we project BOU for 1.43 goals (our difficulty 2.6/5)
- ▸45% start probability, 42 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.02 xG90, 0.03 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 12%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.06 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 49/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸6.2 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £4.5m (1.37 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs EVE
| Appearance points | 0.93 |
| Goal points | 0.05 |
| Assist points | 0.04 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.48 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.06 |
| Goals conceded | -0.05 |
| Cards / other | -0.08 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.4 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | EVE (H) | 41.5 | 1% | 12% | 1.4 |
| 3 | NEW (A) | 41.5 | 1% | 7% | 1.2 |
| 4 | BRE (H) | 41.5 | 1% | 12% | 1.4 |
| 5 | LIV (H) | 41.5 | 1% | 6% | 1.1 |
| 6 | CHE (A) | 41.5 | 1% | 4% | 1.0 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
4
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)84%
Chance of 5+ points8%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.02
xA90
0.03
xGI90
0.05
BPS90
13.7
DefCon90
6.3
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
2.25
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MCI (A) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers