Rayan
MIDRayan Vitor Simplício Rocha · Bournemouth · £6.5m · 2.8% owned · 2 pts
📉 Fixtures Worsening⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.8
xPts 3
5.2
xPts 5
8.4
Rating
24
SELLMEDConfidence: LOWFIXTURES TURN
Why we rank Rayan here
- ▸Home vs EVE: we project BOU for 1.43 goals (our difficulty 2.6/5)
- ▸50% start probability, 45 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.17 xG90, 0.13 xA90 (shrunk to 88 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.09 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 46/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸8.4 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £6.5m (1.29 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs EVE
| Appearance points | 1.02 |
| Goal points | 0.42 |
| Assist points | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.13 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.09 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.05 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.8 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | EVE (H) | 44.8 | 8% | 13% | 1.8 |
| 3 | NEW (A) | 44.8 | 7% | 8% | 1.6 |
| 4 | BRE (H) | 44.8 | 8% | 13% | 1.8 |
| 5 | LIV (H) | 44.8 | 6% | 7% | 1.6 |
| 6 | CHE (A) | 44.8 | 6% | 5% | 1.5 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
5
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)78%
Chance of 5+ points11%
Chance of 10+ points1%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.17
xA90
0.13
xGI90
0.30
BPS90
16.6
DefCon90
6.4
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
2.11
Minutes
88
Starts
1
Form
2.0
PPM
2.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.1
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MCI (A) | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | 2 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers