Tóth.A
MIDAlex Tóth · Bournemouth · £5.0m · 0.0% owned · 1 pts
📉 Fixtures Worsening⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.1
xPts 3
3.4
xPts 5
5.5
Rating
8
AVOIDHIGHConfidence: LOWFIXTURES TURN
Why we rank Tóth.A here
- ▸Home vs EVE: we project BOU for 1.43 goals (our difficulty 2.6/5)
- ▸16% start probability, 23 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.11 xG90, 0.13 xA90 (shrunk to 15 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.04 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 66/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸5.5 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.0m (1.09 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs EVE
| Appearance points | 0.87 |
| Goal points | 0.14 |
| Assist points | 0.10 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.06 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.04 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.05 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.1 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | EVE (H) | 23.1 | 3% | 6% | 1.1 |
| 3 | NEW (A) | 23.1 | 2% | 3% | 1.1 |
| 4 | BRE (H) | 23.1 | 3% | 5% | 1.1 |
| 5 | LIV (H) | 23.1 | 2% | 3% | 1.1 |
| 6 | CHE (A) | 23.1 | 2% | 2% | 1.0 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)92%
Chance of 5+ points4%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.11
xA90
0.13
xGI90
0.23
BPS90
15.7
DefCon90
9.0
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.86
Minutes
15
Starts
0
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MCI (A) | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers