Calafiori
DEFRiccardo Calafiori · Arsenal · £5.5m · 41.4% owned · 9 pts
🔥 Hot Form
xPts GW
2.8
xPts 3
8.5
xPts 5
14.4
Rating
53
HOLDMEDConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Calafiori here
- ▸Away vs AVL: we project ARS for 1.97 goals (our difficulty 1.5/5)
- ▸59% start probability, 48 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.12 xG90, 0.06 xA90 (shrunk to 80 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 23%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.20 expected bonus points
- ▸14.4 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.5m (2.62 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at AVL
| Appearance points | 1.19 |
| Goal points | 0.55 |
| Assist points | 0.14 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.91 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.20 |
| Goals conceded | -0.05 |
| Cards / other | -0.10 |
| Predicted FPL points | 2.8 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AVL (A) | 48.3 | 9% | 23% | 2.8 |
| 3 | CHE (H) | 48.3 | 9% | 19% | 2.6 |
| 4 | SUN (A) | 48.3 | 10% | 25% | 3.0 |
| 5 | BHA (A) | 48.3 | 8% | 19% | 2.5 |
| 6 | LEE (H) | 48.3 | 11% | 29% | 3.3 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
6
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)62%
Chance of 5+ points26%
Chance of 10+ points3%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.12
xA90
0.06
xGI90
0.18
BPS90
22.1
DefCon90
6.0
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.07
Minutes
80
Starts
1
Form
9.0
PPM
9.0
G+A vs xGI
+0.9
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | COV (H) | 80 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 9 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers