Rodríguez
FWDÁlvaro Rodríguez · Bournemouth · £6.0m · 0.1% owned · 0 pts
📉 Fixtures Worsening⚠️ Rotation Risk⚽ Goal Threat
xPts GW
1.0
xPts 3
3.0
xPts 5
4.8
Rating
7
SELLHIGHConfidence: LOWFIXTURES TURN
Why we rank Rodríguez here
- ▸Home vs EVE: we project BOU for 1.43 goals (our difficulty 2.6/5)
- ▸25% start probability, 21 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.36 xG90, 0.15 xA90 (shrunk to 0 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.05 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 61/100 — Flagged: 100% chance of playing
- ▸4.8 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £6.0m (0.80 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs EVE
| Appearance points | 0.57 |
| Goal points | 0.34 |
| Assist points | 0.10 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.00 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.05 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.04 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.0 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | EVE (H) | 21.2 | 8% | 7% | 1.0 |
| 3 | NEW (A) | 21.2 | 7% | 4% | 0.9 |
| 4 | BRE (H) | 21.2 | 8% | 7% | 1.0 |
| 5 | LIV (H) | 21.2 | 7% | 4% | 0.9 |
| 6 | CHE (A) | 21.2 | 6% | 2% | 0.9 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
0
Ceiling (90th)
3
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)88%
Chance of 5+ points4%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.36
xA90
0.15
xGI90
0.50
BPS90
16.8
DefCon90
4.5
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.00
Minutes
0
Starts
0
Form
0.0
PPM
0.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MCI (A) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers