Ajer
DEFKristoffer Ajer · Brentford · £4.5m · 3.9% owned · 8 pts
🔥 Hot Form📉 Fixtures Worsening⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.9
xPts 3
5.9
xPts 5
9.4
Rating
34
WATCHMEDConfidence: LOWFIXTURES TURN
Why we rank Ajer here
- ▸Away vs LEE: we project BRE for 1.25 goals (our difficulty 2.8/5)
- ▸55% start probability, 50 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.05 xG90, 0.04 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 16%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.08 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 43/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸9.4 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £4.5m (2.09 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at LEE
| Appearance points | 1.11 |
| Goal points | 0.16 |
| Assist points | 0.06 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.62 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.04 |
| Bonus points | 0.08 |
| Goals conceded | -0.07 |
| Cards / other | -0.08 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.9 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | LEE (A) | 50.2 | 3% | 16% | 1.9 |
| 3 | SUN (H) | 50.2 | 4% | 20% | 2.2 |
| 4 | BOU (A) | 50.2 | 3% | 13% | 1.8 |
| 5 | CHE (H) | 50.2 | 3% | 10% | 1.7 |
| 6 | AVL (A) | 50.2 | 3% | 14% | 1.8 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
6
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)77%
Chance of 5+ points13%
Chance of 10+ points1%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.05
xA90
0.04
xGI90
0.09
BPS90
15.3
DefCon90
9.1
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.57
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
8.0
PPM
8.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.1
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TOT (H) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.11 | 8 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers