Hincapie
DEFPiero Hincapié · Arsenal · £5.5m · 1.6% owned · 1 pts
⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.7
xPts 3
5.1
xPts 5
8.6
Rating
28
SELLMEDConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Hincapie here
- ▸Away vs AVL: we project ARS for 1.97 goals (our difficulty 1.5/5)
- ▸34% start probability, 32 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.03 xG90, 0.08 xA90 (shrunk to 9 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 14%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.06 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 55/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸8.6 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.5m (1.56 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at AVL
| Appearance points | 0.92 |
| Goal points | 0.10 |
| Assist points | 0.12 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.56 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.06 |
| Goals conceded | -0.01 |
| Cards / other | -0.04 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.7 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AVL (A) | 31.7 | 2% | 14% | 1.7 |
| 3 | CHE (H) | 31.7 | 2% | 12% | 1.6 |
| 4 | SUN (A) | 31.7 | 2% | 15% | 1.8 |
| 5 | BHA (A) | 31.7 | 1% | 12% | 1.6 |
| 6 | LEE (H) | 31.7 | 2% | 18% | 1.9 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
5
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)80%
Chance of 5+ points11%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.03
xA90
0.08
xGI90
0.11
BPS90
17.4
DefCon90
8.1
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.50
Minutes
9
Starts
0
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | COV (H) | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers