Matches
Arsenal v Chelsea Prediction & Match Markets
Sun 6 Sept, 15:30 · Gameweek 3 · Arsenal (home)
Predicted score
2–0
11% likely
Expected goals
2.19 – 0.85
Total 3.04
ARS win
67%
Draw 19%
CHE win
13%
BTTS 50%
Lineup confidence
77%
20,000 simulations
Minimum odds 1.50
Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.
On
Three best fixed-odds bets
Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated
#1 · Game
43Over 2.5 Goals
Total match goals
Model 58% vs market 55%
Price 5/6EV +5.6%Conf 76%
#2 · Game
34Under 8.5 Corners
Total match corners
Model 45% vs market 42%
Price 7/5EV +6.9%Conf 76%
Three best spread bets
One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently
#1 · Game
32BUY Total match goals at 2.85
Total match goals
Model 3.04 (range 1.00–5.00)
Edge 0.19Conf 76%
#2 · Game
28SELL Total match corners at 9.6
Total match corners
Model 9.2 (range 5.0–14.0)
Edge 0.40Conf 76%
Predicted line-ups
Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model
Arsenal
4-5-1 · High confidence
- 1RayaGKP
- 2GabrielDEF
- 3CalafioriDEF
- 4WhiteDEF
- 5MosqueraDEF
- 6RiceMID
- 7Lewis-SkellyMID
- 8SakaMID
- 9TzolisMID
- 10ZubimendiMID
- 11HavertzFWD
Bench: Konsa, Ødegaard, Gyökeres, Eze
Doubts: Bruno G.
Out: Saliba, J.Timber
Full Arsenal predicted XI →Chelsea
5-4-1 · High confidence
- 1PendersGKP
- 2LacroixDEF
- 3JamesDEF
- 4GustoDEF
- 5FofanaDEF
- 6HatoDEF
- 7RogersMID
- 8PalmerMID
- 9EnzoMID
- 10NetoMID
- 11João PedroFWD
Bench: Colwill, Sánchez, Welbeck, Caicedo
Doubts: Caicedo
Out: Palestra, Henderson
Full Chelsea predicted XI →Match spread markets
Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line
| Market | Sell | Buy | Model | Most likely | Floor → ceiling | Edge | Prob | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match goals | 2.65 | 2.85 | 3.04 | 3.00 | 1.0 5.0 | 0.19 | 58% | 76% | 32 | BUY |
| Total match corners | 9.6 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 5.0 14.0 | 0.4 | 56% | 76% | 28 | SELL |
| Total booking points | 38.00 | 42.00 | 40.49 | 31.80 | 10.6 74.2 | 0.00 | 52% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| Total match shots | — | — | 20.1 | 18.0 | 13.0 28.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots on target | — | — | 7.9 | 7.0 | 4.0 12.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match fouls | — | — | 20.5 | 19.0 | 13.0 29.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Goal supremacy (home) | — | — | 1.34 | 1.00 | -1.0 4.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Shot supremacy (home) | — | — | 5.9 | 5.0 | 0.0 12.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| SOT supremacy (home) | — | — | 2.9 | 2.0 | -1.0 7.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Corner supremacy (home) | — | — | 3.2 | 3.0 | -1.0 7.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card supremacy (home) | — | — | -1.64 | -1.00 | -4.0 1.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Match fixed-odds markets
Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only
| Market | Selection | Price | Implied | Model | Fair odds | EV | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match corners | Under 10.5 Corners | 8/151.53 | 65% | 66% | 1.51 | +1.8% | 76% | 48 | NO BET |
| Total match goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 5/61.83 | 55% | 58% | 1.74 | +5.6% | 76% | 43 | LEAN |
| Total match corners | Under 9.5 Corners | 5/61.83 | 55% | 56% | 1.79 | +2.5% | 76% | 38 | NO BET |
| Total match corners | Under 8.5 Corners | 7/52.40 | 42% | 45% | 2.25 | +6.9% | 76% | 34 | LEAN |
| Total match goals | Over 3.5 Goals | 2/13.00 | 33% | 36% | 2.78 | +8.1% | 76% | 32 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 7.5 Corners | 11/53.20 | 31% | 33% | 3.05 | +4.8% | 76% | 28 | LEAN |
| Total match goals | Over 4.5 Goals | 9/25.50 | 18% | 20% | 5.02 | +9.5% | 76% | 27 | LEAN |
| Total match corners | Under 6.5 Corners | 15/44.75 | 21% | 22% | 4.51 | +5.4% | 76% | 26 | LEAN |
| Total match corners | Over 8.5 Corners | 1/21.50 | 67% | 55% | 1.80 | -16.8% | 76% | 24 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 7.5 Goals | 66/167.00 | 1% | 2% | 50.38 | +33.0% | 76% | 21 | LEAN |
| Total match goals | Over 5.5 Goals | 9/110.00 | 10% | 10% | 10.24 | -2.3% | 76% | 21 | NO BET |
| Total match goals | Over 6.5 Goals | 22/123.00 | 4% | 4% | 22.57 | +1.9% | 76% | 20 | NO BET |
| Total match corners | Under 5.5 Corners | 6/17.00 | 14% | 14% | 7.34 | -4.6% | 76% | 20 | NO BET |
| Total match corners | Over 9.5 Corners | 5/61.83 | 55% | 44% | 2.27 | -19.2% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Under 2.5 Goals | 5/61.83 | 55% | 42% | 2.36 | -22.3% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 4.5 Corners | 10/111.00 | 9% | 7% | 14.21 | -22.6% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 10.5 Corners | 13/102.30 | 43% | 34% | 2.98 | -22.7% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Under 1.5 Goals | 13/53.60 | 28% | 21% | 4.72 | -23.8% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 3.5 Corners | 22/123.00 | 4% | 3% | 31.10 | -26.1% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 11.5 Corners | 2/13.00 | 33% | 24% | 4.14 | -27.6% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 12.5 Corners | 3/14.00 | 25% | 17% | 5.90 | -32.2% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 13.5 Corners | 9/25.50 | 18% | 11% | 8.86 | -37.9% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 14.5 Corners | 13/27.50 | 13% | 7% | 13.49 | -44.4% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Under 0.5 Goals | 8/19.00 | 11% | 6% | 17.20 | -47.7% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 15.5 Corners | 9/110.00 | 10% | 5% | 21.10 | -52.6% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 16.5 Corners | 14/115.00 | 7% | 3% | 36.23 | -58.6% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 17.5 Corners | 22/123.00 | 4% | 2% | 62.11 | -63.0% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 18.5 Corners | 40/141.00 | 2% | 1% | 116.28 | -64.7% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS win | — | — | 67% | 1.48 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Draw | — | — | 19% | 5.20 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | CHE win | — | — | 13% | 7.46 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score | — | — | 50% | 2.01 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS -1 goal handicap | — | — | 43% | 2.31 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | CHE +1 goal handicap | — | — | 57% | 1.76 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS draw no bet | — | — | 83% | 1.20 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS double chance | — | — | 87% | 1.15 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | CHE double chance | — | — | 33% | 3.06 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Player fixed-odds markets
Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only
No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.
Player spread markets
Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines
| Player | Market | Sell | Buy | Model | Floor → ceiling | Edge | Prob | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HincapieARS | Player Performance | — | — | 12.1 | 6.2 18.9 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| ZubimendiARS | Player Performance | — | — | 15.4 | 8.6 23.3 | — | 0% | 68% | 0 | NO BET |
| CalafioriARS | Player Performance | — | — | 12.5 | 6.2 20.1 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| GabrielARS | Player Performance | — | — | 14.4 | 8.7 21.1 | — | 0% | 71% | 0 | NO BET |
| Lewis-SkellyARS | Player Performance | — | — | 15.1 | 9.5 21.8 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| SakaARS | Player Performance | — | — | 12.4 | 4.9 22.5 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| ØdegaardARS | Player Performance | — | — | 12.8 | 6.5 21.7 | — | 0% | 58% | 0 | NO BET |
| GyökeresARS | Player Performance | — | — | 6.8 | 0.8 15.5 | — | 0% | 63% | 0 | NO BET |
| RayaARS | Player Performance | — | — | 5.4 | 3.1 7.7 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| MaduekeARS | Player Performance | — | — | 11.3 | 5.0 19.0 | — | 0% | 58% | 0 | NO BET |
| HavertzARS | Player Performance | — | — | 12.4 | 4.8 22.8 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| RiceARS | Player Performance | — | — | 13.3 | 7.4 20.7 | — | 0% | 68% | 0 | NO BET |
| WhiteARS | Player Performance | — | — | 15.8 | 9.5 23.4 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| MosqueraARS | Player Performance | — | — | 14.5 | 8.3 21.5 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| EzeARS | Player Performance | — | — | 13.5 | 6.3 22.3 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| MerinoARS | Player Performance | — | — | 14.0 | 6.1 24.0 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| MartinelliARS | Player Performance | — | — | 9.5 | 3.2 17.6 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| KonsaARS | Player Performance | — | — | 13.1 | 7.7 19.2 | — | 0% | 73% | 0 | NO BET |
| Bruno G.ARS | Player Performance | — | — | 16.8 | 9.0 26.1 | — | 0% | 53% | 0 | NO BET |
| JamesCHE | Player Performance | — | — | 17.5 | 10.8 25.4 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| FofanaCHE | Player Performance | — | — | 14.9 | 8.5 21.9 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| TosinCHE | Player Performance | — | — | 17.9 | 11.1 25.1 | — | 0% | 58% | 0 | NO BET |
| EnzoCHE | Player Performance | — | — | 16.0 | 8.9 24.2 | — | 0% | 68% | 0 | NO BET |
| ChavarriaCHE | Player Performance | — | — | 13.0 | 7.1 19.9 | — | 0% | 50% | 0 | NO BET |
| CaicedoCHE | Player Performance | — | — | 18.9 | 10.9 27.8 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| RogersCHE | Player Performance | — | — | 13.2 | 5.5 23.6 | — | 0% | 79% | 0 | NO BET |
| NetoCHE | Player Performance | — | — | 9.8 | 4.5 17.0 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| EstêvãoCHE | Player Performance | — | — | 11.1 | 4.9 18.8 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| HendersonCHE | Player Performance | — | — | 12.6 | 6.9 19.3 | — | 0% | 70% | 0 | NO BET |
| WelbeckCHE | Player Performance | — | — | 8.2 | 1.9 17.0 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| PalmerCHE | Player Performance | — | — | 17.1 | 9.0 27.6 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| GustoCHE | Player Performance | — | — | 10.5 | 5.3 16.7 | — | 0% | 65% | 0 | NO BET |
| AcheampongCHE | Player Performance | — | — | 17.8 | 11.7 24.9 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| SánchezCHE | Player Performance | — | — | 7.1 | 4.5 9.7 | — | 0% | 73% | 0 | NO BET |
| HatoCHE | Player Performance | — | — | 11.4 | 5.9 17.7 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| LaviaCHE | Player Performance | — | — | 11.3 | 5.4 18.6 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| João PedroCHE | Player Performance | — | — | 12.9 | 4.7 23.9 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| LacroixCHE | Player Performance | — | — | 15.0 | 8.7 22.5 | — | 0% | 74% | 0 | NO BET |
| HincapieARS | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.2 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| GabrielARS | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 71% | 0 | NO BET |
| Lewis-SkellyARS | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| SakaARS | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.4 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| ØdegaardARS | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.1 | — | 0% | 58% | 0 | NO BET |
| GyökeresARS | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.4 | — | 0% | 63% | 0 | NO BET |
| RayaARS | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| MaduekeARS | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.3 | — | 0% | 58% | 0 | NO BET |
| ZubimendiARS | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.8 | — | 0% | 68% | 0 | NO BET |
| HavertzARS | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.3 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| RiceARS | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 68% | 0 | NO BET |
| CalafioriARS | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.0 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| WhiteARS | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| MosqueraARS | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| EzeARS | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.5 | 0.0 1.6 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| MerinoARS | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.3 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| MartinelliARS | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.5 | 0.0 1.6 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| KonsaARS | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.1 | — | 0% | 73% | 0 | NO BET |
| Bruno G.ARS | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.4 | — | 0% | 53% | 0 | NO BET |
| JamesCHE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.9 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| FofanaCHE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.1 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| TosinCHE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.1 | — | 0% | 58% | 0 | NO BET |
| EnzoCHE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.3 | — | 0% | 68% | 0 | NO BET |
| ChavarriaCHE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 50% | 0 | NO BET |
| CaicedoCHE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| AcheampongCHE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| RogersCHE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.3 | — | 0% | 79% | 0 | NO BET |
| NetoCHE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.0 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| HendersonCHE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.1 | — | 0% | 70% | 0 | NO BET |
| WelbeckCHE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.4 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| PalmerCHE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.5 | 0.0 1.6 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| GustoCHE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 65% | 0 | NO BET |
| EstêvãoCHE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| SánchezCHE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 73% | 0 | NO BET |
| HatoCHE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.1 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| LaviaCHE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| João PedroCHE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.4 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| LacroixCHE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 74% | 0 | NO BET |
Most likely scorelines
- 2–011.1%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.5%
Team news & model notes
Arsenal
J.Timber (i), Saliba (i), Nelson (u)
Chelsea
M.Sarr (u), Jörgensen (u), Chalobah (u), B.Badiashile (u)
Model updated 30/08/2026, 02:26:22 · prices 29/08/2026, 14:31:21