What is a fixed odds value bet?

A value bet is a selection where our model's probability of the outcome is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's price once the margin is removed. Over a large sample, backing value bets is what produces a positive return.

Which fixed odds markets do you cover?

Player markets such as shots, shots on target, tackles, fouls and passes, plus team and match markets for goals, corners and cards, and season-long Bet365 player markets.

How often are the fixed odds updated?

Prices are captured live and refreshed through the day, and every board shows when it was last updated. Fixtures drop out of the models once they kick off.

Fixed odds

Fixed odds betting models

Every fixed odds market we price sits in this section. Prices are captured live, de-margined to a fair probability, then compared with our Premier League projection engine so you can see where the value is before kick-off.

Player fixed odds

Shots, shots on target, tackles, fouls and passes priced against live bookmaker odds, with expected value, fair odds and Kelly stakes.

Team fixed odds

Team and match totals for goals, corners and cards, de-margined and compared with the team projection engine.

Premier League football tips

Today's best fixed-odds bets ranked by Opportunity Score across player, team and match markets.

Bet365 odds vs model

Season-long Bet365 player markets converted to fair probabilities and compared with the model line by line.

How our fixed odds models work

Each market is simulated thousands of times from player and team form, fixture difficulty and expected minutes. The resulting probability is turned into a fair price, which is then set against the bookmaker's de-margined odds. Anything with a positive gap is flagged as value, with a Kelly fraction to guide staking.

Prefer spread markets? The same projections power our football spread betting models, and squad decisions are covered in FPL Insights.

How fixed odds value betting works

Every price contains a margin. Strip it out, compare the resulting fair probability with an independent projection, and bet only when the bookmaker is offering more than the outcome is worth. Repeated over hundreds of bets, that gap — not any single result — is the edge.

Which markets we price

Player shots, shots on target, tackles, fouls and passes; team and match totals for goals, corners and cards; plus match result and both teams to score. Season-long Bet365 player markets are covered separately.

Frequently asked questions

What is a fixed odds value bet?: A value bet is a selection where our model's probability of the outcome is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's price once the margin is removed. Over a large sample, backing value bets is what produces a positive return.
Which fixed odds markets do you cover?: Player markets such as shots, shots on target, tackles, fouls and passes, plus team and match markets for goals, corners and cards, and season-long Bet365 player markets.
How often are the fixed odds updated?: Prices are captured live and refreshed through the day, and every board shows when it was last updated. Fixtures drop out of the models once they kick off.