Matches

Aston Villa v Arsenal Prediction & Match Markets

Mon 31 Aug, 19:00 · Gameweek 2 · Aston Villa (home)

Predicted score

1–1

13% likely

Expected goals

1.14 – 1.22

Total 2.36

AVL win

34%

Draw 28%

ARS win

38%

BTTS 47%

Lineup confidence

77%

20,000 simulations

Minimum odds 1.50

Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.

Three best fixed-odds bets

Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated

#1 · Player

100

Myles Lewis-Skelly - 60+

Lewis-Skelly · Player Attempted Passes

Model 70% vs market 17% · projection 64.19

Price 5/1EV +322.1%Conf 67%

#2 · Game

Under 3.5 Cards

Total match cards

Model 67% vs market 50%

Price 1/1EV +33.0%Conf 73%

#3 · Game

Under 10.5 Corners

Total match corners

Model 71% vs market 65%

Price 8/15EV +9.4%Conf 73%

Three best spread bets

One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently

#1 · Game

SELL Total booking points at 38.00

Total booking points

Model 30.74 (range 10.60–53.00)

Edge 7.26Conf 73%

#2 · Game

SELL Total match goals at 2.75

Total match goals

Model 2.36 (range 0.00–4.00)

Edge 0.39Conf 73%

#3 · Game

SELL Total match corners at 9.6

Total match corners

Model 8.8 (range 5.0–13.0)

Edge 0.80Conf 73%

Predicted line-ups

Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model

Aston Villa

4-5-1 · High confidence

1SuzukiGKP
2CashDEF
3PauDEF
4MaatsenDEF
5LindelöfDEF
6BuendíaMID
7McGinnMID
8KamaraMID
9George HemmingsMID
10GoretzkaMID
11N.JacksonFWD

Bench: Watkins, Martinez, Barkley, Wan-Bissaka

Doubts: Abraham

Out: Madjo, Manzambi, Bailey, Onana, Gomes

Full Aston Villa predicted XI →

Arsenal

4-5-1 · High confidence

1RayaGKP
2GabrielDEF
3CalafioriDEF
4WhiteDEF
5MosqueraDEF
6RiceMID
7Lewis-SkellyMID
8SakaMID
9TzolisMID
10ZubimendiMID
11HavertzFWD

Bench: Konsa, Ødegaard, Gyökeres, Eze

Doubts: Bruno G.

Out: Saliba, J.Timber

Full Arsenal predicted XI →

Match spread markets

Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line

Market	Sell	Buy	Model	Most likely	Floor → ceiling	Edge	Prob	Conf	Opp	Signal
Total booking points	38.00	42.00	30.74	21.20	10.6 53.0	7.26	67%	73%	56	SELL
Total match goals	2.75	2.95	2.36	2.00	0.0 4.0	0.39	58%	73%	42	SELL
Total match corners	9.6	10.1	8.8	8.0	5.0 13.0	0.8	61%	73%	37	SELL
Total match shots	—	—	19.7	18.0	13.0 27.0	—	—	73%	0	NO PRICE
Total match shots on target	—	—	7.2	6.0	4.0 11.0	—	—	73%	0	NO PRICE
Total match fouls	—	—	19.9	18.0	13.0 28.0	—	—	73%	0	NO PRICE
Goal supremacy (home)	—	—	-0.08	0.00	-2.0 2.0	—	—	73%	0	NO PRICE
Shot supremacy (home)	—	—	-3.5	-4.0	-10.0 3.0	—	—	73%	0	NO PRICE
SOT supremacy (home)	—	—	-1.2	-1.0	-5.0 2.0	—	—	73%	0	NO PRICE
Corner supremacy (home)	—	—	-1.3	-1.0	-5.0 3.0	—	—	73%	0	NO PRICE
Card supremacy (home)	—	—	-0.31	0.00	-2.0 2.0	—	—	73%	0	NO PRICE

Match fixed-odds markets

Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only

Market	Selection	Price	Implied	Model	Fair odds	EV	Conf	Opp	Signal
Total match cards	Under 3.5 Cards	1/12.00	50%	67%	1.50	+33.0%	73%	67	BET
Total match corners	Under 10.5 Corners	8/151.53	65%	71%	1.40	+9.4%	73%	62	BET
Total match corners	Under 9.5 Corners	5/61.83	55%	61%	1.63	+12.7%	73%	55	BET
Total match cards	Under 2.5 Cards	21/103.10	32%	46%	2.19	+41.8%	73%	54	BET
Total match goals	Under 2.5 Goals	1/12.00	50%	58%	1.71	+17.0%	73%	52	BET
Total match corners	Under 8.5 Corners	13/102.30	43%	50%	2.00	+14.8%	73%	42	BET
Total match cards	Under 1.5 Cards	11/26.50	15%	23%	4.32	+50.3%	73%	40	BET
Total match corners	Under 7.5 Corners	11/53.20	31%	37%	2.67	+19.8%	73%	39	BET
Total match goals	Under 1.5 Goals	11/43.75	27%	33%	3.06	+22.4%	73%	37	BET
Total match corners	Under 6.5 Corners	7/24.50	22%	26%	3.88	+15.9%	73%	31	BET
Total match corners	Under 5.5 Corners	6/17.00	14%	16%	6.10	+14.8%	73%	26	LEAN
Total match goals	Under 0.5 Goals	10/111.00	9%	10%	9.75	+12.8%	73%	23	LEAN
Total match cards	Under 0.5 Cards	16/117.00	6%	7%	15.31	+11.0%	73%	21	LEAN
Total match corners	Under 4.5 Corners	10/111.00	9%	9%	11.34	-3.0%	73%	19	NO BET
Total match corners	Under 3.5 Corners	22/123.00	4%	4%	25.61	-10.2%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 8.5 Corners	8/151.53	65%	50%	2.00	-23.2%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match goals	Over 2.5 Goals	4/51.80	56%	42%	2.41	-25.3%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 9.5 Corners	5/61.83	55%	39%	2.60	-29.4%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 10.5 Corners	13/102.30	43%	29%	3.49	-34.1%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match goals	Over 3.5 Goals	2/13.00	33%	22%	4.63	-35.2%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 11.5 Corners	2/13.00	33%	20%	4.92	-39.0%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match goals	Over 4.5 Goals	5/16.00	17%	10%	10.38	-42.2%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 12.5 Corners	16/54.20	24%	14%	7.39	-43.2%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match cards	Over 3.5 Cards	4/61.67	60%	33%	2.99	-44.2%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 13.5 Corners	9/25.50	18%	9%	11.13	-50.6%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 14.5 Corners	7/18.00	13%	6%	17.27	-53.7%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match goals	Over 5.5 Goals	10/111.00	9%	4%	24.45	-55.0%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match cards	Over 4.5 Cards	6/42.50	40%	18%	5.65	-55.8%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 15.5 Corners	9/110.00	10%	3%	28.86	-65.4%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match cards	Over 5.5 Cards	11/43.75	27%	9%	11.53	-67.5%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match goals	Over 6.5 Goals	22/123.00	4%	1%	71.43	-67.8%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 16.5 Corners	14/115.00	7%	2%	49.14	-69.5%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 17.5 Corners	25/126.00	4%	1%	85.84	-69.7%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 18.5 Corners	40/141.00	2%	1%	155.04	-73.6%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match goals	Over 7.5 Goals	66/167.00	1%	0%	270.27	-75.2%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match cards	Over 6.5 Cards	5/16.00	17%	4%	26.70	-77.5%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match cards	Over 7.5 Cards	8/19.00	11%	1%	68.03	-86.8%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match cards	Over 8.5 Cards	16/117.00	6%	1%	185.19	-90.8%	73%	19	AVOID
Total match cards	Over 9.5 Cards	40/141.00	2%	0%	571.43	-92.8%	73%	19	AVOID
Match outcome (model price)	AVL win	—	—	34%	2.95	—	73%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	Draw	—	—	28%	3.54	—	73%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	ARS win	—	—	38%	2.64	—	73%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	Both teams to score	—	—	47%	2.13	—	73%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	AVL -1 goal handicap	—	—	14%	7.17	—	73%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	ARS +1 goal handicap	—	—	86%	1.16	—	73%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	AVL draw no bet	—	—	47%	2.11	—	73%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	AVL double chance	—	—	62%	1.61	—	73%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	ARS double chance	—	—	66%	1.51	—	73%	0	NO PRICE

Player fixed-odds markets

Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only

Player	Market	Selection	Price	Implied	Model	Projection	EV	Conf	Score	Signal
Lewis-SkellyARS	Player Attempted Passes	Myles Lewis-Skelly - 60+	5/16.00	17%	70%	64.19	+322.1%	67%	100	LEAN
Lewis-SkellyARS	Player Attempted Passes	Myles Lewis-Skelly - 55+	13/53.60	28%	86%	64.19	+211.0%	67%	100	LEAN
WhiteARS	Player Attempted Passes	Ben White - 60+	17/45.25	19%	56%	60.76	+192.8%	66%	100	LEAN
WhiteARS	Player Attempted Passes	Ben White - 55+	9/43.25	31%	77%	60.76	+149.1%	66%	100	LEAN
Lewis-SkellyARS	Player Attempted Passes	Myles Lewis-Skelly - 50+	13/102.30	44%	96%	64.19	+119.6%	67%	100	LEAN
WhiteARS	Player Attempted Passes	Ben White - 50+	11/102.10	48%	90%	60.76	+89.2%	66%	100	LEAN
Lewis-SkellyARS	Player Attempted Passes	Myles Lewis-Skelly - 45+	13/201.65	61%	99%	64.19	+62.9%	67%	100	LEAN
WhiteARS	Player Attempted Passes	Ben White - 45+	6/111.55	65%	97%	60.76	+49.9%	66%	100	LEAN
HavertzARS	Player Attempted Passes	Kai Havertz - 25+	6/111.55	65%	82%	29.64	+26.3%	67%	71	LEAN
HavertzARS	Player Attempted Passes	Kai Havertz - 30+	13/82.63	38%	50%	29.64	+31.7%	67%	70	LEAN
CalafioriARS	Player Attempted Passes	Riccardo Calafiori - 40+	8/131.62	62%	69%	43.29	+12.0%	62%	53	BET
ZubimendiARS	Player Attempted Passes	Martin Zubimendi - 60+	1/12.00	50%	55%	60.07	+9.5%	74%	52	BET
ZubimendiARS	Player Attempted Passes	Martin Zubimendi - 55+	4/71.57	64%	69%	60.07	+7.7%	74%	51	BET
ZubimendiARS	Player Attempted Passes	Martin Zubimendi - 65+	9/52.80	36%	39%	60.07	+8.8%	74%	48	BET
HavertzARS	Player Attempted Passes	Kai Havertz - 35+	5/16.00	17%	20%	29.64	+17.5%	67%	43	LEAN
MaduekeARS	Player Attempted Passes	Noni Madueke - 35+	9/52.80	36%	41%	32.35	+13.9%	60%	43	LEAN
MaduekeARS	Player Attempted Passes	Noni Madueke - 30+	4/61.67	60%	65%	32.35	+8.4%	60%	39	LEAN
ZubimendiARS	Player Attempted Passes	Martin Zubimendi - 70+	10/34.33	23%	24%	60.07	+3.5%	74%	39	LEAN
LynchAVL	Player Tackles	Luka Lynch - 3+	11/26.50	15%	18%	1.44	+15.4%	59%	38	LEAN
LynchAVL	Player Tackles	Luka Lynch - 2+	13/82.63	38%	42%	1.44	+11.1%	59%	36	LEAN
LynchAVL	Player Attempted Passes	Luka Lynch - 40+	9/110.00	10%	32%	35.34	+220.1%	59%	0	REFERENCE
LynchAVL	Player Attempted Passes	Luka Lynch - 35+	18/54.60	22%	55%	35.34	+153.6%	59%	0	REFERENCE
RuggeriAVL	Player Tackles	Matteo Ruggeri - 4+	4/15.00	20%	50%	3.71	+151.6%	56%	0	CALIBRATE
RuggeriAVL	Player Tackles	Matteo Ruggeri - 3+	8/52.60	39%	70%	3.71	+82.7%	56%	0	CALIBRATE
LynchAVL	Player Attempted Passes	Luka Lynch - 30+	5/42.25	44%	76%	35.34	+70.6%	59%	0	REFERENCE
RuggeriAVL	Player Tackles	Matteo Ruggeri - 2+	6/111.55	65%	87%	3.71	+34.4%	56%	0	CALIBRATE
MaduekeARS	Player Attempted Passes	Noni Madueke - 40+	9/25.50	18%	18%	32.35	0.0%	60%	0	NO BET

Player spread markets

Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines

Player	Market	Sell	Buy	Model	Floor → ceiling	Edge	Prob	Conf	Signal
BuendíaAVL	Player Performance	—	—	13.1	6.1 21.4	—	0%	68%	NO BET
MingsAVL	Player Performance	—	—	10.1	5.5 15.3	—	0%	57%	NO BET
LindelöfAVL	Player Performance	—	—	10.3	6.3 15.1	—	0%	50%	NO BET
BarkleyAVL	Player Performance	—	—	8.1	3.3 14.6	—	0%	52%	NO BET
Wan-BissakaAVL	Player Performance	—	—	8.5	3.3 14.8	—	0%	70%	NO BET
RuggeriAVL	Player Performance	—	—	16.2	8.7 24.7	—	0%	47%	NO BET
SuzukiAVL	Player Performance	—	—	4.0	1.6 6.9	—	0%	48%	NO BET
LynchAVL	Player Performance	—	—	13.0	6.5 21.0	—	0%	49%	NO BET
GoretzkaAVL	Player Performance	—	—	12.9	6.4 20.8	—	0%	46%	NO BET
GarnachoAVL	Player Performance	—	—	9.7	4.3 16.4	—	0%	55%	NO BET
McGinnAVL	Player Performance	—	—	9.2	3.5 16.1	—	0%	77%	NO BET
PauAVL	Player Performance	—	—	8.3	4.1 13.2	—	0%	66%	NO BET
M.BizotAVL	Player Performance	—	—	4.7	2.3 7.2	—	0%	55%	NO BET
MaatsenAVL	Player Performance	—	—	12.1	6.2 18.9	—	0%	64%	NO BET
WatkinsAVL	Player Performance	—	—	6.6	0.6 15.1	—	0%	72%	NO BET
MartinezAVL	Player Performance	—	—	5.1	2.5 7.7	—	0%	74%	NO BET
BogardeAVL	Player Performance	—	—	10.1	4.7 16.6	—	0%	57%	NO BET
CashAVL	Player Performance	—	—	10.4	4.6 17.0	—	0%	83%	NO BET
KamaraAVL	Player Performance	—	—	14.5	8.3 21.8	—	0%	59%	NO BET
GabrielARS	Player Performance	—	—	17.0	11.1 23.9	—	0%	73%	NO BET
Lewis-SkellyARS	Player Performance	—	—	17.3	11.7 24.1	—	0%	62%	NO BET
HavertzARS	Player Performance	—	—	14.1	6.0 24.7	—	0%	61%	NO BET
HincapieARS	Player Performance	—	—	13.5	7.3 20.6	—	0%	62%	NO BET
SakaARS	Player Performance	—	—	13.8	5.8 24.5	—	0%	65%	NO BET
ØdegaardARS	Player Performance	—	—	14.7	8.0 23.7	—	0%	57%	NO BET
GyökeresARS	Player Performance	—	—	8.1	1.5 17.1	—	0%	67%	NO BET
RayaARS	Player Performance	—	—	6.7	4.2 9.1	—	0%	80%	NO BET
MaduekeARS	Player Performance	—	—	12.6	6.1 20.7	—	0%	57%	NO BET
ZubimendiARS	Player Performance	—	—	17.0	10.2 24.8	—	0%	70%	NO BET
RiceARS	Player Performance	—	—	15.0	8.7 22.6	—	0%	81%	NO BET
CalafioriARS	Player Performance	—	—	14.6	7.9 22.5	—	0%	64%	NO BET
WhiteARS	Player Performance	—	—	17.6	11.4 25.1	—	0%	60%	NO BET
MosqueraARS	Player Performance	—	—	15.7	9.6 22.6	—	0%	63%	NO BET
EzeARS	Player Performance	—	—	14.5	7.2 23.6	—	0%	62%	NO BET
MerinoARS	Player Performance	—	—	15.4	7.1 25.7	—	0%	60%	NO BET
MartinelliARS	Player Performance	—	—	10.9	4.3 19.2	—	0%	59%	NO BET
KonsaARS	Player Performance	—	—	15.4	9.6 21.7	—	0%	77%	NO BET
Bruno G.ARS	Player Performance	—	—	19.5	11.0 29.1	—	0%	60%	NO BET
RayaARS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.0	—	0%	80%	NO BET
GabrielARS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.2	0.0 0.9	—	0%	73%	NO BET
Lewis-SkellyARS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.3	—	0%	62%	NO BET
CalafioriARS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.3	0.0 1.2	—	0%	64%	NO BET
HincapieARS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.3	—	0%	62%	NO BET
WhiteARS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.4	—	0%	60%	NO BET
MosqueraARS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.5	—	0%	63%	NO BET
SakaARS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.5	0.0 1.6	—	0%	65%	NO BET
RiceARS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.2	0.0 0.9	—	0%	81%	NO BET
EzeARS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.5	0.0 1.6	—	0%	62%	NO BET
ØdegaardARS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.3	0.0 1.2	—	0%	57%	NO BET
MaduekeARS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.4	0.0 1.4	—	0%	57%	NO BET
MerinoARS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.5	0.0 1.5	—	0%	60%	NO BET
MartinelliARS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.6	0.0 1.9	—	0%	59%	NO BET
ZubimendiARS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.7	—	0%	70%	NO BET
GyökeresARS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.5	0.0 1.6	—	0%	67%	NO BET
HavertzARS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.5	0.0 1.5	—	0%	61%	NO BET
MartinezAVL	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.0	—	0%	74%	NO BET
M.BizotAVL	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.0	—	0%	55%	NO BET
KonsaARS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.2	—	0%	77%	NO BET
CashAVL	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.5	—	0%	83%	NO BET
MingsAVL	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.1	—	0%	57%	NO BET
PauAVL	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.1	—	0%	66%	NO BET
BogardeAVL	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.0	—	0%	57%	NO BET
MaatsenAVL	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.4	—	0%	64%	NO BET
LindelöfAVL	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.1	—	0%	50%	NO BET
BuendíaAVL	Shots on Target	—	—	0.2	0.0 1.1	—	0%	68%	NO BET
McGinnAVL	Shots on Target	—	—	0.2	0.0 0.8	—	0%	77%	NO BET
BarkleyAVL	Shots on Target	—	—	0.2	0.0 0.8	—	0%	52%	NO BET
KamaraAVL	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.4	—	0%	59%	NO BET
WatkinsAVL	Shots on Target	—	—	0.4	0.0 1.3	—	0%	72%	NO BET
GarnachoAVL	Shots on Target	—	—	0.2	0.0 0.8	—	0%	55%	NO BET
Bruno G.ARS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.5	0.0 1.5	—	0%	60%	NO BET
RuggeriAVL	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.3	—	0%	47%	NO BET
SuzukiAVL	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.0	—	0%	48%	NO BET
LynchAVL	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.7	—	0%	49%	NO BET
Wan-BissakaAVL	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.0	—	0%	70%	NO BET
GoretzkaAVL	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.7	—	0%	46%	NO BET

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%
0–111.5%
1–010.9%

Team news & model notes

Aston Villa

Digne (u), Onana (i), Gomes (s), Nedeljkovic (u), Abraham (d)

Arsenal

J.Timber (i), Saliba (i), Nelson (u)

Model updated 30/08/2026, 02:26:22 · prices 29/08/2026, 14:31:21

Today's Football Spread Betting Tips →Today's Premier League Football Tips →All Premier League matches →