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Aston Villa v Nott'm Forest Prediction & Match Markets

Sat 12 Sept, 14:00 · Gameweek 4 · Aston Villa (home)

Predicted score

1–0

13% likely

Expected goals
1.42 – 0.97
Total 2.39
AVL win
47%
Draw 27%
NFO win
25%
BTTS 46%
Lineup confidence
77%
20,000 simulations

Minimum odds 1.50

Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.

On

Three best fixed-odds bets

Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated

No rated fixed-odds bets for this fixture.

Three best spread bets

One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently

No rated spread bets for this fixture.

Predicted line-ups

Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model

Aston Villa

4-5-1 · High confidence
  1. 1SuzukiGKP
  2. 2CashDEF
  3. 3PauDEF
  4. 4MaatsenDEF
  5. 5LindelöfDEF
  6. 6BuendíaMID
  7. 7McGinnMID
  8. 8KamaraMID
  9. 9George HemmingsMID
  10. 10GoretzkaMID
  11. 11N.JacksonFWD

Bench: Watkins, Martinez, Barkley, Wan-Bissaka

Doubts: Abraham

Out: Madjo, Manzambi, Bailey, Onana, Gomes

Full Aston Villa predicted XI →

Nott'm Forest

4-5-1 · Medium confidence
  1. 1SelsGKP
  2. 2MilenkovićDEF
  3. 3N.WilliamsDEF
  4. 4MurilloDEF
  5. 5AinaDEF
  6. 6Gibbs-WhiteMID
  7. 7DominguezMID
  8. 8NdoyeMID
  9. 9SchlagerMID
  10. 10McAteeMID
  11. 11Igor JesusFWD

Bench: Hudson-Odoi, Jair Cunha, Hutchinson, Morato

Out: I.Sangaré, Savona

Full Nott'm Forest predicted XI →

Match spread markets

Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line

MarketSellBuyModelMost likelyFloor → ceilingEdgeProbConfOppSignal
Total match goals——2.392.00
0.0
5.0
——73%0NO PRICE
Total match shots——20.520.0
13.0
28.0
——73%0NO PRICE
Total match shots on target——7.27.0
4.0
11.0
——73%0NO PRICE
Total match corners——8.37.0
4.0
13.0
——73%0NO PRICE
Total match cards——3.543.00
1.0
6.0
——73%0NO PRICE
Total match fouls——22.623.0
14.9
31.0
——73%0NO PRICE
Goal supremacy (home)——0.450.00
-1.0
2.0
——73%0NO PRICE
Shot supremacy (home)——1.92.0
-4.0
8.0
——73%0NO PRICE
SOT supremacy (home)——0.40.0
-3.0
4.0
——73%0NO PRICE
Corner supremacy (home)——0.50.0
-3.0
4.0
——73%0NO PRICE
Card supremacy (home)——-0.84-1.00
-3.0
1.0
——73%0NO PRICE

Match fixed-odds markets

Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only

MarketSelectionPriceImpliedModelFair oddsEVConfOppSignal
Match outcome (model price)AVL win——47%2.12—73%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)Draw——27%3.65—73%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)NFO win——25%3.92—73%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)Both teams to score——46%2.16—73%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)AVL -1 goal handicap——23%4.34—73%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)NFO +1 goal handicap——77%1.30—73%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)AVL draw no bet——65%1.54—73%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)AVL double chance——75%1.34—73%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)NFO double chance——53%1.89—73%0NO PRICE

Player fixed-odds markets

Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only

No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.

Player spread markets

Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines

PlayerMarketSellBuyModelFloor → ceilingEdgeProbConfOppSignal
MingsAVLPlayer Performance——12.3
7.3
17.9
—0%54%0NO BET
LindelöfAVLPlayer Performance——12.3
8.2
17.2
—0%51%0NO BET
BuendíaAVLPlayer Performance——15.3
7.7
24.2
—0%65%0NO BET
BarkleyAVLPlayer Performance——9.6
4.4
16.4
—0%53%0NO BET
Wan-BissakaAVLPlayer Performance——9.1
3.9
15.3
—0%66%0NO BET
RuggeriAVLPlayer Performance——16.9
9.4
25.2
—0%48%0NO BET
SuzukiAVLPlayer Performance——5.0
2.4
8.0
—0%48%0NO BET
LynchAVLPlayer Performance——14.9
8.1
23.2
—0%49%0NO BET
GoretzkaAVLPlayer Performance——14.9
8.0
23.4
—0%46%0NO BET
GarnachoAVLPlayer Performance——11.5
5.6
18.7
—0%52%0NO BET
McGinnAVLPlayer Performance——10.9
4.9
18.3
—0%74%0NO BET
PauAVLPlayer Performance——9.8
5.5
15.0
—0%62%0NO BET
M.BizotAVLPlayer Performance——6.1
3.5
8.6
—0%55%0NO BET
MaatsenAVLPlayer Performance——13.4
7.4
20.3
—0%61%0NO BET
WatkinsAVLPlayer Performance——8.2
1.6
17.3
—0%68%0NO BET
MartinezAVLPlayer Performance——6.4
3.6
9.3
—0%70%0NO BET
BogardeAVLPlayer Performance——10.9
5.5
17.3
—0%58%0NO BET
CashAVLPlayer Performance——12.0
6.2
18.7
—0%79%0NO BET
KamaraAVLPlayer Performance——16.1
9.9
23.6
—0%55%0NO BET
SelsNFOPlayer Performance——4.6
2.5
6.7
—0%71%0NO BET
MoratoNFOPlayer Performance——11.9
6.1
18.5
—0%56%0NO BET
MurilloNFOPlayer Performance——13.4
7.9
19.9
—0%67%0NO BET
AinaNFOPlayer Performance——8.0
2.9
14.0
—0%64%0NO BET
O.RichardsNFOPlayer Performance——13.2
7.1
20.2
—0%51%0NO BET
N.WilliamsNFOPlayer Performance——15.3
8.8
22.8
—0%74%0NO BET
MilenkovićNFOPlayer Performance——10.3
5.7
15.8
—0%79%0NO BET
Jair CunhaNFOPlayer Performance——12.6
7.2
18.8
—0%56%0NO BET
Hudson-OdoiNFOPlayer Performance——9.0
4.0
15.7
—0%58%0NO BET
SchlagerNFOPlayer Performance——13.7
7.3
21.3
—0%48%0NO BET
DiomandeNFOPlayer Performance——8.7
2.9
15.8
—0%49%0NO BET
Igor JesusNFOPlayer Performance——9.0
2.7
17.5
—0%67%0NO BET
DelapNFOPlayer Performance——6.6
0.7
14.7
—0%56%0NO BET
NdoyeNFOPlayer Performance——6.6
1.7
12.7
—0%53%0NO BET
Gibbs-WhiteNFOPlayer Performance——12.3
6.4
20.0
—0%76%0NO BET
YatesNFOPlayer Performance——13.4
6.4
21.7
—0%58%0NO BET
HutchinsonNFOPlayer Performance——9.7
4.0
16.8
—0%54%0NO BET
WoodNFOPlayer Performance——6.9
1.5
15.1
—0%58%0NO BET
DominguezNFOPlayer Performance——14.9
7.7
23.3
—0%46%0NO BET
MartinezAVLShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.0
—0%70%0NO BET
M.BizotAVLShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.0
—0%55%0NO BET
CashAVLShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.7
—0%79%0NO BET
MingsAVLShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.2
—0%54%0NO BET
PauAVLShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.1
—0%62%0NO BET
BogardeAVLShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.0
—0%58%0NO BET
MaatsenAVLShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.6
—0%61%0NO BET
LindelöfAVLShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.1
—0%51%0NO BET
BuendíaAVLShots on Target——0.3
0.0
1.2
—0%65%0NO BET
McGinnAVLShots on Target——0.2
0.0
1.1
—0%74%0NO BET
BarkleyAVLShots on Target——0.2
0.0
1.1
—0%53%0NO BET
KamaraAVLShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.7
—0%55%0NO BET
WatkinsAVLShots on Target——0.5
0.0
1.6
—0%68%0NO BET
GarnachoAVLShots on Target——0.2
0.0
1.1
—0%52%0NO BET
DelapNFOShots on Target——0.3
0.0
1.2
—0%56%0NO BET
SelsNFOShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.0
—0%71%0NO BET
N.WilliamsNFOShots on Target——0.2
0.0
1.1
—0%74%0NO BET
MoratoNFOShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.2
—0%56%0NO BET
MilenkovićNFOShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.2
—0%79%0NO BET
MurilloNFOShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.4
—0%67%0NO BET
AinaNFOShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.2
—0%64%0NO BET
Jair CunhaNFOShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.4
—0%56%0NO BET
O.RichardsNFOShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.5
—0%51%0NO BET
Gibbs-WhiteNFOShots on Target——0.4
0.0
1.4
—0%76%0NO BET
Hudson-OdoiNFOShots on Target——0.2
0.0
0.8
—0%58%0NO BET
NdoyeNFOShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.4
—0%53%0NO BET
HutchinsonNFOShots on Target——0.2
0.0
1.1
—0%54%0NO BET
DominguezNFOShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.7
—0%46%0NO BET
YatesNFOShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.6
—0%58%0NO BET
WoodNFOShots on Target——0.3
0.0
1.3
—0%58%0NO BET
Igor JesusNFOShots on Target——0.4
0.0
1.3
—0%67%0NO BET
SchlagerNFOShots on Target——0.2
0.0
0.8
—0%48%0NO BET
DiomandeNFOShots on Target——0.3
0.0
1.2
—0%49%0NO BET
RuggeriAVLShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.4
—0%48%0NO BET
SuzukiAVLShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.0
—0%48%0NO BET
LynchAVLShots on Target——0.2
0.0
1.1
—0%49%0NO BET
Wan-BissakaAVLShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.0
—0%66%0NO BET
GoretzkaAVLShots on Target——0.2
0.0
1.1
—0%46%0NO BET

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–013.0%
  • 1–112.2%
  • 0–010.1%

Team news & model notes

Aston Villa

Digne (u), Onana (i), Gomes (s), Nedeljkovic (u), Abraham (d)

Nott'm Forest

Savona (i), I.Sangaré (i), Bakwa (u)

Model updated 30/08/2026, 02:25:49 · no live prices captured

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