Matches
Brentford v Sunderland Prediction & Match Markets
Sat 5 Sept, 14:00 · Gameweek 3 · Brentford (home)
Predicted score
1–0
17% likely
Expected goals
1.68 – 0.68
Total 2.35
BRE win
61%
Draw 24%
SUN win
15%
BTTS 39%
Lineup confidence
74%
20,000 simulations
Minimum odds 1.50
Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.
On
Three best fixed-odds bets
Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated
#1 · Game
73Under 10.5 Corners
Total match corners
Model 74% vs market 65%
Price 8/15EV +13.9%Conf 76%
#2 · Game
47Under 2.5 Goals
Total match goals
Model 59% vs market 55%
Price 5/6EV +7.3%Conf 76%
Three best spread bets
One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently
#1 · Game
44SELL Total match corners at 9.6
Total match corners
Model 8.5 (range 4.9–13.0)
Edge 1.10Conf 76%
#2 · Game
41SELL Total match goals at 2.70
Total match goals
Model 2.35 (range 0.00–4.00)
Edge 0.35Conf 76%
Predicted line-ups
Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model
Brentford
4-5-1 · High confidence
- 1KelleherGKP
- 2KayodeDEF
- 3CollinsDEF
- 4AjerDEF
- 5DioufDEF
- 6Lewis-PotterMID
- 7SchadeMID
- 8O.DangoMID
- 9JensenMID
- 10JaneltMID
- 11ThiagoFWD
Bench: M.Sangaré, Anthony, Damsgaard, Henry
Doubts: Yarmoliuk
Out: Van den Berg, Milambo
Full Brentford predicted XI →Sunderland
5-4-1 · High confidence
- 1RoefsGKP
- 2BallardDEF
- 3HumeDEF
- 4AldereteDEF
- 5ReinildoDEF
- 6MeunierDEF
- 7E.Le FéeMID
- 8XhakaMID
- 9SadikiMID
- 10AnguloMID
- 11BrobbeyFWD
Bench: Mukiele, O'Nien, Talbi, Diarra
Out: Adingra, Methalie
Full Sunderland predicted XI →Match spread markets
Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line
| Market | Sell | Buy | Model | Most likely | Floor → ceiling | Edge | Prob | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match corners | 9.6 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 4.9 13.0 | 1.1 | 65% | 76% | 44 | SELL |
| Total match goals | 2.70 | 2.90 | 2.35 | 2.00 | 0.0 4.0 | 0.35 | 59% | 76% | 41 | SELL |
| Total booking points | 38.00 | 42.00 | 39.01 | 31.80 | 10.6 63.6 | 0.00 | 51% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| Total match shots | — | — | 20.1 | 19.0 | 13.0 28.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots on target | — | — | 6.8 | 6.0 | 3.0 11.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match fouls | — | — | 21.6 | 20.0 | 14.0 30.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Goal supremacy (home) | — | — | 1.00 | 1.00 | -1.0 3.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Shot supremacy (home) | — | — | 4.3 | 4.0 | -2.0 11.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| SOT supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.7 | 0.0 | -3.0 4.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Corner supremacy (home) | — | — | 2.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 6.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card supremacy (home) | — | — | -0.76 | -1.00 | -3.0 2.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Match fixed-odds markets
Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only
| Market | Selection | Price | Implied | Model | Fair odds | EV | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match corners | Under 10.5 Corners | 8/151.53 | 65% | 74% | 1.35 | +13.9% | 76% | 73 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 9.5 Corners | 5/61.83 | 55% | 65% | 1.54 | +18.8% | 76% | 66 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 8.5 Corners | 7/52.40 | 42% | 53% | 1.88 | +27.9% | 76% | 57 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 7.5 Corners | 11/53.20 | 31% | 41% | 2.44 | +31.2% | 76% | 48 | BET |
| Total match goals | Under 2.5 Goals | 5/61.83 | 55% | 59% | 1.71 | +7.3% | 76% | 47 | LEAN |
| Total match corners | Under 6.5 Corners | 15/44.75 | 21% | 29% | 3.49 | +36.2% | 76% | 41 | BET |
| Total match goals | Under 1.5 Goals | 13/53.60 | 28% | 34% | 2.97 | +21.1% | 76% | 38 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 5.5 Corners | 6/17.00 | 14% | 18% | 5.52 | +26.9% | 76% | 31 | LEAN |
| Total match corners | Under 4.5 Corners | 10/111.00 | 9% | 10% | 10.00 | +10.0% | 76% | 23 | LEAN |
| Total match corners | Under 3.5 Corners | 22/123.00 | 4% | 4% | 22.52 | +2.1% | 76% | 20 | NO BET |
| Total match goals | Under 0.5 Goals | 8/19.00 | 11% | 10% | 9.56 | -5.8% | 76% | 20 | NO BET |
| Total match goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 5/61.83 | 55% | 41% | 2.41 | -24.0% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 8.5 Corners | 1/21.50 | 67% | 47% | 2.14 | -29.9% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 3.5 Goals | 2/13.00 | 33% | 22% | 4.62 | -35.1% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 9.5 Corners | 5/61.83 | 55% | 35% | 2.84 | -35.5% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 10.5 Corners | 13/102.30 | 43% | 26% | 3.89 | -40.9% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 4.5 Goals | 9/25.50 | 18% | 10% | 10.04 | -45.2% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 11.5 Corners | 2/13.00 | 33% | 18% | 5.61 | -46.6% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 12.5 Corners | 3/14.00 | 25% | 12% | 8.46 | -52.7% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 5.5 Goals | 9/110.00 | 10% | 4% | 24.39 | -59.0% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 13.5 Corners | 9/25.50 | 18% | 7% | 13.54 | -59.4% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 6.5 Goals | 22/123.00 | 4% | 2% | 63.29 | -63.7% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 7.5 Goals | 66/167.00 | 1% | 1% | 185.19 | -63.8% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 14.5 Corners | 13/27.50 | 13% | 4% | 22.68 | -66.9% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 15.5 Corners | 9/110.00 | 10% | 3% | 38.31 | -73.9% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 16.5 Corners | 14/115.00 | 7% | 1% | 68.97 | -78.3% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 18.5 Corners | 40/141.00 | 2% | 0% | 222.22 | -81.6% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 17.5 Corners | 22/123.00 | 4% | 1% | 127.39 | -81.9% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Match outcome (model price) | BRE win | — | — | 61% | 1.64 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Draw | — | — | 24% | 4.12 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | SUN win | — | — | 15% | 6.72 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score | — | — | 39% | 2.56 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BRE -1 goal handicap | — | — | 34% | 2.95 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | SUN +1 goal handicap | — | — | 66% | 1.51 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BRE draw no bet | — | — | 80% | 1.24 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BRE double chance | — | — | 85% | 1.17 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | SUN double chance | — | — | 39% | 2.55 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Player fixed-odds markets
Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only
No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.
Player spread markets
Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines
| Player | Market | Sell | Buy | Model | Floor → ceiling | Edge | Prob | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KelleherBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 6.3 | 3.9 8.6 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| CollinsBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 14.1 | 8.6 21.0 | — | 0% | 71% | 0 | NO BET |
| Lewis-PotterBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 13.3 | 6.1 23.4 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| AjerBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 11.1 | 5.5 17.7 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| KayodeBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 9.5 | 3.6 17.9 | — | 0% | 75% | 0 | NO BET |
| HenryBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 8.0 | 3.3 13.7 | — | 0% | 65% | 0 | NO BET |
| HickeyBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 11.9 | 6.1 18.6 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| Ji-sooBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 13.6 | 7.3 20.8 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| SchadeBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 10.5 | 3.6 19.3 | — | 0% | 72% | 0 | NO BET |
| O.DangoBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 7.9 | 2.3 15.1 | — | 0% | 63% | 0 | NO BET |
| DamsgaardBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 15.1 | 7.8 23.7 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| JensenBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 10.9 | 5.0 18.6 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| JaneltBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 17.8 | 9.9 27.9 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| YarmoliukBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 12.9 | 6.5 20.4 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| AnthonyBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 11.8 | 4.9 20.5 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| ThiagoBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 9.8 | 2.1 20.3 | — | 0% | 73% | 0 | NO BET |
| WilsonBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 8.2 | 1.4 17.4 | — | 0% | 65% | 0 | NO BET |
| RoefsSUN | Player Performance | — | — | 7.1 | 4.5 9.6 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| BallardSUN | Player Performance | — | — | 12.4 | 6.6 19.0 | — | 0% | 65% | 0 | NO BET |
| MukieleSUN | Player Performance | — | — | 11.6 | 5.5 18.6 | — | 0% | 63% | 0 | NO BET |
| HumeSUN | Player Performance | — | — | 8.2 | 3.3 14.1 | — | 0% | 77% | 0 | NO BET |
| AldereteSUN | Player Performance | — | — | 10.0 | 4.8 16.2 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| ReinildoSUN | Player Performance | — | — | 12.6 | 6.8 19.2 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| O'NienSUN | Player Performance | — | — | 8.4 | 3.6 14.2 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| MeunierSUN | Player Performance | — | — | 16.1 | 10.0 23.3 | — | 0% | 45% | 0 | NO BET |
| E.Le FéeSUN | Player Performance | — | — | 10.0 | 4.6 16.7 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| DiarraSUN | Player Performance | — | — | 9.1 | 3.6 16.3 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| XhakaSUN | Player Performance | — | — | 17.3 | 11.2 24.8 | — | 0% | 68% | 0 | NO BET |
| SadikiSUN | Player Performance | — | — | 11.8 | 6.3 18.5 | — | 0% | 70% | 0 | NO BET |
| MundleSUN | Player Performance | — | — | 9.9 | 4.1 17.3 | — | 0% | 54% | 0 | NO BET |
| RiggSUN | Player Performance | — | — | 10.1 | 4.5 17.1 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| TalbiSUN | Player Performance | — | — | 6.6 | 2.4 12.5 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| AnguloSUN | Player Performance | — | — | 9.2 | 3.0 17.6 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| BrobbeySUN | Player Performance | — | — | 4.4 | -0.2 11.5 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| IsidorSUN | Player Performance | — | — | 6.9 | 0.8 15.1 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| M.SangaréBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 12.8 | 6.5 20.8 | — | 0% | 50% | 0 | NO BET |
| AhokaSUN | Player Performance | — | — | 14.7 | 7.9 22.9 | — | 0% | 46% | 0 | NO BET |
| DioufBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 10.1 | 4.6 16.6 | — | 0% | 65% | 0 | NO BET |
| KelleherBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| CollinsBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 71% | 0 | NO BET |
| Lewis-PotterBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| AjerBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| KayodeBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 75% | 0 | NO BET |
| HenryBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.1 | — | 0% | 65% | 0 | NO BET |
| HickeyBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| Ji-sooBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| SchadeBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.4 | — | 0% | 72% | 0 | NO BET |
| O.DangoBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 63% | 0 | NO BET |
| DamsgaardBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.1 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| JensenBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.8 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| JaneltBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.8 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| YarmoliukBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| AnthonyBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.3 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| ThiagoBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.6 | 0.0 1.8 | — | 0% | 73% | 0 | NO BET |
| WilsonBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.6 | 0.0 1.7 | — | 0% | 65% | 0 | NO BET |
| RoefsSUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| BallardSUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.8 | — | 0% | 65% | 0 | NO BET |
| MukieleSUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.2 | — | 0% | 63% | 0 | NO BET |
| HumeSUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 77% | 0 | NO BET |
| AldereteSUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| ReinildoSUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.1 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| O'NienSUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| MeunierSUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.9 | — | 0% | 45% | 0 | NO BET |
| E.Le FéeSUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| DiarraSUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.0 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| XhakaSUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 68% | 0 | NO BET |
| SadikiSUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 70% | 0 | NO BET |
| MundleSUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.0 | — | 0% | 54% | 0 | NO BET |
| RiggSUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.8 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| TalbiSUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.1 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| AnguloSUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.0 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| BrobbeySUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| IsidorSUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.5 | 0.0 1.6 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| M.SangaréBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.0 | — | 0% | 50% | 0 | NO BET |
| AhokaSUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.0 | — | 0% | 46% | 0 | NO BET |
| DioufBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 65% | 0 | NO BET |
Most likely scorelines
- 1–016.5%
- 2–012.5%
- 0–010.5%
Team news & model notes
Brentford
Milambo (i), Van den Berg (i)
Sunderland
Masuaku (u), Adingra (i), Seelt (u)
Model updated 30/08/2026, 02:26:27 · prices 29/08/2026, 14:31:21