Matches
Brighton v Leeds Prediction & Match Markets
Sat 5 Sept, 14:00 · Gameweek 3 · Brighton (home)
Predicted score
0–0
18% likely
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.78
Total 1.77
BHA win
39%
Draw 33%
LEE win
28%
BTTS 34%
Lineup confidence
75%
20,000 simulations
Minimum odds 1.50
Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.
On
Three best fixed-odds bets
Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated
#1 · Game
74Under 10.5 Corners
Total match corners
Model 84% vs market 65%
Price 8/15EV +28.3%Conf 55%
#2 · Game
69Under 2.5 Goals
Total match goals
Model 74% vs market 50%
Price 1/1EV +47.1%Conf 55%
Three best spread bets
One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently
#1 · Game
69SELL Total match goals at 2.75
Total match goals
Model 1.77 (range 0.00–4.00)
Edge 0.98Conf 55%
#2 · Game
61SELL Total match corners at 9.6
Total match corners
Model 7.6 (range 4.0–12.0)
Edge 2.00Conf 55%
#3 · Game
37SELL Total booking points at 38.00
Total booking points
Model 33.50 (range 10.60–63.60)
Edge 4.50Conf 55%
Predicted line-ups
Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model
Brighton
5-4-1 · High confidence
- 1VerbruggenGKP
- 2BoscagliDEF
- 3De CuyperDEF
- 4DunkDEF
- 5WiefferDEF
- 6VuskovicDEF
- 7GroßMID
- 8O'RileyMID
- 9GomezMID
- 10AyariMID
- 11KostoulasFWD
Bench: F.Kadıoğlu, Struijk, David, Svoboda
Doubts: Georginio
Out: Hinshelwood, Minteh, Mitoma, Tzimas, Ferguson
Full Brighton predicted XI →Leeds
5-4-1 · High confidence
- 1TraffordGKP
- 2BijolDEF
- 3RodonDEF
- 4BogleDEF
- 5JustinDEF
- 6MuharemovićDEF
- 7AmpaduMID
- 8WilsonMID
- 9StachMID
- 10AaronsonMID
- 11Calvert-LewinFWD
Bench: Okafor, Perri, Tanaka, Nmecha
Doubts: Gudmundsson, Gnonto, Gruev
Out: Mateo Joseph
Full Leeds predicted XI →Match spread markets
Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line
| Market | Sell | Buy | Model | Most likely | Floor → ceiling | Edge | Prob | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match goals | 2.75 | 2.95 | 1.77 | 1.00 | 0.0 4.0 | 0.98 | 74% | 55% | 69 | SELL |
| Total match corners | 9.6 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.0 12.0 | 2.0 | 75% | 55% | 61 | SELL |
| Total booking points | 38.00 | 42.00 | 33.50 | 21.20 | 10.6 63.6 | 4.50 | 61% | 55% | 37 | SELL |
| Total match shots | — | — | 20.5 | 19.0 | 13.0 28.0 | — | — | 55% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots on target | — | — | 6.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 10.0 | — | — | 55% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match fouls | — | — | 20.7 | 18.0 | 13.0 29.0 | — | — | 55% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Goal supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.22 | 0.00 | -1.0 2.0 | — | — | 55% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Shot supremacy (home) | — | — | 3.3 | 3.0 | -3.0 10.0 | — | — | 55% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| SOT supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.5 | 0.0 | -3.0 4.0 | — | — | 55% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Corner supremacy (home) | — | — | 2.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 6.0 | — | — | 55% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.32 | 0.00 | -2.0 3.0 | — | — | 55% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Match fixed-odds markets
Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only
| Market | Selection | Price | Implied | Model | Fair odds | EV | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match corners | Under 10.5 Corners | 8/151.53 | 65% | 84% | 1.20 | +28.3% | 55% | 74 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 9.5 Corners | 5/61.83 | 55% | 75% | 1.32 | +38.4% | 55% | 70 | BET |
| Total match goals | Under 2.5 Goals | 1/12.00 | 50% | 74% | 1.36 | +47.1% | 55% | 69 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 8.5 Corners | 7/52.40 | 42% | 65% | 1.53 | +56.5% | 55% | 62 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 7.5 Corners | 11/53.20 | 31% | 53% | 1.89 | +69.3% | 55% | 52 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 6.5 Corners | 15/44.75 | 21% | 40% | 2.53 | +87.7% | 55% | 50 | BET |
| Total match goals | Under 1.5 Goals | 13/53.60 | 28% | 48% | 2.09 | +72.6% | 55% | 50 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 5.5 Corners | 6/17.00 | 14% | 27% | 3.75 | +86.7% | 55% | 46 | BET |
| Total match goals | Under 0.5 Goals | 9/110.00 | 10% | 18% | 5.63 | +77.6% | 55% | 34 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 4.5 Corners | 10/111.00 | 9% | 15% | 6.49 | +69.5% | 55% | 31 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 3.5 Corners | 22/123.00 | 4% | 8% | 13.30 | +73.0% | 55% | 22 | LEAN |
| Total match corners | Over 8.5 Corners | 1/21.50 | 67% | 35% | 2.87 | -47.8% | 55% | 14 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 8/111.73 | 58% | 26% | 3.78 | -54.3% | 55% | 14 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 9.5 Corners | 5/61.83 | 55% | 25% | 4.08 | -55.1% | 55% | 14 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 10.5 Corners | 13/102.30 | 43% | 16% | 6.12 | -62.4% | 55% | 14 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 3.5 Goals | 15/82.88 | 35% | 11% | 9.04 | -68.2% | 55% | 14 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 11.5 Corners | 2/13.00 | 33% | 10% | 9.63 | -68.8% | 55% | 14 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 12.5 Corners | 3/14.00 | 25% | 6% | 15.49 | -74.2% | 55% | 14 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 4.5 Goals | 9/25.50 | 18% | 4% | 25.32 | -78.3% | 55% | 14 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 13.5 Corners | 9/25.50 | 18% | 4% | 26.01 | -78.9% | 55% | 14 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 14.5 Corners | 13/27.50 | 13% | 2% | 43.29 | -82.7% | 55% | 14 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 15.5 Corners | 9/110.00 | 10% | 1% | 76.63 | -86.9% | 55% | 14 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 5.5 Goals | 9/110.00 | 10% | 1% | 80.65 | -87.6% | 55% | 14 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 16.5 Corners | 14/115.00 | 7% | 1% | 134.23 | -88.8% | 55% | 14 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 17.5 Corners | 22/123.00 | 4% | 0% | 232.56 | -90.1% | 55% | 14 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 6.5 Goals | 22/123.00 | 4% | 0% | 266.67 | -91.4% | 55% | 14 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 18.5 Corners | 40/141.00 | 2% | 0% | 512.82 | -92.0% | 55% | 14 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 7.5 Goals | 66/167.00 | 1% | 0% | 1666.67 | -96.0% | 55% | 14 | AVOID |
| Match outcome (model price) | BHA win | — | — | 39% | 2.54 | — | 55% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Draw | — | — | 33% | 3.03 | — | 55% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LEE win | — | — | 28% | 3.63 | — | 55% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score | — | — | 34% | 2.98 | — | 55% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BHA -1 goal handicap | — | — | 15% | 6.59 | — | 55% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LEE +1 goal handicap | — | — | 85% | 1.18 | — | 55% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BHA draw no bet | — | — | 59% | 1.70 | — | 55% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BHA double chance | — | — | 72% | 1.38 | — | 55% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LEE double chance | — | — | 61% | 1.65 | — | 55% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Player fixed-odds markets
Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only
No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.
Player spread markets
Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines
| Player | Market | Sell | Buy | Model | Floor → ceiling | Edge | Prob | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VerbruggenBHA | Player Performance | — | — | 5.8 | 3.4 8.1 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| F.KadıoğluBHA | Player Performance | — | — | 11.3 | 5.7 17.9 | — | 0% | 70% | 0 | NO BET |
| BoscagliBHA | Player Performance | — | — | 18.7 | 12.6 25.5 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| De CuyperBHA | Player Performance | — | — | 11.2 | 4.0 21.3 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| DunkBHA | Player Performance | — | — | 16.0 | 10.7 22.0 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| CostinhaBHA | Player Performance | — | — | 12.9 | 6.6 20.4 | — | 0% | 46% | 0 | NO BET |
| SvobodaBHA | Player Performance | — | — | 11.7 | 5.9 18.5 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| GroßBHA | Player Performance | — | — | 14.5 | 8.4 21.7 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| GeorginioBHA | Player Performance | — | — | 10.4 | 3.6 19.2 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| GomezBHA | Player Performance | — | — | 12.9 | 5.5 21.9 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| AyariBHA | Player Performance | — | — | 9.7 | 3.9 16.9 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| WiefferBHA | Player Performance | — | — | 11.4 | 5.1 18.9 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| YohannaBHA | Player Performance | — | — | 12.1 | 6.1 19.4 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| WilsonLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 9.8 | 4.0 17.2 | — | 0% | 69% | 0 | NO BET |
| PerriLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 6.8 | 3.9 9.6 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| BijolLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 15.5 | 9.8 22.3 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| StruijkBHA | Player Performance | — | — | 11.7 | 6.0 18.4 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| RodonLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 13.8 | 8.6 20.0 | — | 0% | 69% | 0 | NO BET |
| BogleLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 11.3 | 5.6 17.8 | — | 0% | 72% | 0 | NO BET |
| GudmundssonLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 12.1 | 6.0 19.1 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| JustinLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 15.9 | 9.3 23.4 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| MuharemovićLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 17.1 | 10.9 24.4 | — | 0% | 50% | 0 | NO BET |
| StachLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 18.8 | 10.7 28.8 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| OkaforLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 11.1 | 4.2 19.9 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| AaronsonLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 13.2 | 6.7 21.0 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| AmpaduLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 18.3 | 11.8 26.0 | — | 0% | 79% | 0 | NO BET |
| LongstaffLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 16.9 | 9.4 25.5 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| JamesLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 11.1 | 5.0 18.8 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| TanakaLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 16.1 | 9.0 24.6 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| Calvert-LewinLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 8.7 | 1.6 17.9 | — | 0% | 68% | 0 | NO BET |
| NmechaLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 11.5 | 3.6 21.6 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| TraffordLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 7.3 | 4.5 10.5 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| VuskovicBHA | Player Performance | — | — | 14.1 | 8.5 20.9 | — | 0% | 42% | 0 | NO BET |
| DavidBHA | Player Performance | — | — | 8.8 | 2.6 17.6 | — | 0% | 30% | 0 | NO BET |
| ElvediLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 15.5 | 8.9 23.2 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| OsmanBHA | Player Performance | — | — | 12.3 | 6.3 19.7 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| YalcouyéBHA | Player Performance | — | — | 12.1 | 6.1 19.5 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| HadjamBHA | Player Performance | — | — | 11.7 | 5.9 18.7 | — | 0% | 44% | 0 | NO BET |
| VerbruggenBHA | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| F.KadıoğluBHA | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 70% | 0 | NO BET |
| BoscagliBHA | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| De CuyperBHA | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| DunkBHA | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.2 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| CostinhaBHA | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 46% | 0 | NO BET |
| SvobodaBHA | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| GroßBHA | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.9 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| GeorginioBHA | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.0 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| GomezBHA | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.1 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| AyariBHA | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| WiefferBHA | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| YohannaBHA | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| WilsonLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.3 | — | 0% | 69% | 0 | NO BET |
| PerriLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| BijolLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.9 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| StruijkBHA | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| RodonLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 69% | 0 | NO BET |
| BogleLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 72% | 0 | NO BET |
| GudmundssonLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| JustinLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.9 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| MuharemovićLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 50% | 0 | NO BET |
| StachLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.3 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| OkaforLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.5 | 0.0 1.6 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| AaronsonLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.4 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| AmpaduLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 79% | 0 | NO BET |
| LongstaffLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.1 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| JamesLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| TanakaLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.0 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| Calvert-LewinLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.7 | 0.0 2.0 | — | 0% | 68% | 0 | NO BET |
| NmechaLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.8 | 0.0 2.3 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| TraffordLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| VuskovicBHA | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 42% | 0 | NO BET |
| DavidBHA | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 30% | 0 | NO BET |
| ElvediLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.8 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| OsmanBHA | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| YalcouyéBHA | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| HadjamBHA | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 44% | 0 | NO BET |
Most likely scorelines
- 0–017.8%
- 1–017.0%
- 0–113.2%
Team news & model notes
Brighton
Buonanotte (u), Minteh (i), Mitoma (i), Watson (u), Howell (u), Tzimas (i)
Leeds
Bornauw (u), Piroe (u), Harrison (u), Gruev (i)
Model updated 30/08/2026, 02:25:20 · prices 29/08/2026, 14:31:21