Matches

Chelsea v Brighton Prediction & Match Markets

Sun 30 Aug, 13:00 · Gameweek 2 · Chelsea (home)

Predicted score

1–1

12% likely

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.27

Total 2.63

CHE win

38%

Draw 27%

BHA win

35%

BTTS 53%

Lineup confidence

78%

20,000 simulations

Minimum odds 1.50

Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.

Three best fixed-odds bets

Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated

#1 · Player

Reece James - 60+

James · Player Attempted Passes

Model 71% vs market 60% · projection 64.71

Price 4/6EV +19.0%Conf 62%

#2 · Game

Under 2.5 Goals

Total match goals

Model 52% vs market 45%

Price 6/5EV +14.5%Conf 54%

Three best spread bets

One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently

#1 · Player

SELL Wieffer Player Performance at 18.0

Wieffer · Player Performance

Model 10.8 (range 4.9–17.9)

Edge 7.16Conf 72%

#2 · Player

SELL Hinshelwood Shots on Target at 0.6

Hinshelwood · Shots on Target

Model 0.2 (range 0.0–0.9)

Edge 0.42Conf 80%

#3 · Game

SELL Total match goals at 2.90

Total match goals

Model 2.63 (range 1.00–5.00)

Edge 0.27Conf 54%

Predicted line-ups

Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model

Chelsea

5-4-1 · High confidence

1PendersGKP
2LacroixDEF
3JamesDEF
4GustoDEF
5FofanaDEF
6HatoDEF
7RogersMID
8PalmerMID
9EnzoMID
10NetoMID
11João PedroFWD

Bench: Colwill, Sánchez, Welbeck, Caicedo

Doubts: Caicedo

Out: Palestra, Henderson

Full Chelsea predicted XI →

Brighton

5-4-1 · High confidence

1VerbruggenGKP
2BoscagliDEF
3De CuyperDEF
4DunkDEF
5WiefferDEF
6VuskovicDEF
7GroßMID
8O'RileyMID
9GomezMID
10AyariMID
11KostoulasFWD

Bench: F.Kadıoğlu, Struijk, David, Svoboda

Doubts: Georginio

Out: Hinshelwood, Minteh, Mitoma, Tzimas, Ferguson

Full Brighton predicted XI →

Match spread markets

Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line

Market	Sell	Buy	Model	Most likely	Floor → ceiling	Edge	Prob	Conf	Opp	Signal
Total match goals	2.90	3.10	2.63	2.00	1.0 5.0	0.27	52%	54%	26	SELL
Total match corners	10.0	10.5	10.4	9.0	6.0 15.0	0.0	54%	54%	0	NO BET
Total booking points	42.00	46.00	44.41	42.40	21.2 74.2	0.00	42%	54%	0	NO BET
Total match shots	—	—	23.4	21.0	16.0 32.0	—	—	54%	0	NO PRICE
Total match shots on target	—	—	7.9	7.0	4.0 12.0	—	—	54%	0	NO PRICE
Total match fouls	—	—	19.6	18.0	12.0 27.0	—	—	54%	0	NO PRICE
Goal supremacy (home)	—	—	0.08	0.00	-2.0 2.0	—	—	54%	0	NO PRICE
Shot supremacy (home)	—	—	4.0	4.0	-3.0 11.0	—	—	54%	0	NO PRICE
SOT supremacy (home)	—	—	0.0	0.0	-4.0 4.0	—	—	54%	0	NO PRICE
Corner supremacy (home)	—	—	2.3	2.0	-2.0 7.0	—	—	54%	0	NO PRICE
Card supremacy (home)	—	—	0.33	0.00	-2.0 3.0	—	—	54%	0	NO PRICE

Match fixed-odds markets

Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only

Market	Selection	Price	Implied	Model	Fair odds	EV	Conf	Opp	Signal
Total match goals	Under 2.5 Goals	6/52.20	45%	52%	1.92	+14.5%	54%	37	BET
Total match cards	Under 4.5 Cards	4/61.67	60%	60%	1.67	-0.1%	54%	32	NO BET
Total match goals	Under 1.5 Goals	16/54.20	24%	28%	3.62	+15.9%	54%	26	BET
Total match corners	Over 9.5 Corners	8/111.73	58%	56%	1.79	-3.3%	54%	23	NO BET
Total match cards	Over 3.5 Cards	8/151.53	65%	58%	1.71	-10.3%	54%	21	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 10.5 Corners	6/52.20	45%	46%	2.19	+0.3%	54%	20	NO BET
Total match corners	Over 12.5 Corners	11/43.75	27%	27%	3.73	+0.5%	54%	18	NO BET
Total match cards	Under 3.5 Cards	13/102.30	43%	42%	2.41	-4.5%	54%	17	NO BET
Total match corners	Under 10.5 Corners	4/61.67	60%	54%	1.84	-9.3%	54%	17	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 11.5 Corners	7/42.75	36%	35%	2.82	-2.5%	54%	16	NO BET
Total match cards	Under 2.5 Cards	3/14.00	25%	24%	4.18	-4.3%	54%	16	NO BET
Total match corners	Over 13.5 Corners	4/15.00	20%	20%	5.10	-2.0%	54%	15	NO BET
Total match corners	Over 14.5 Corners	6/17.00	14%	14%	7.30	-4.1%	54%	14	NO BET
Total match corners	Over 15.5 Corners	9/110.00	10%	9%	10.67	-6.2%	54%	14	NO BET
Total match corners	Under 8.5 Corners	7/42.75	36%	33%	3.03	-9.4%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match corners	Under 9.5 Corners	21/202.05	49%	44%	2.27	-9.8%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match goals	Under 0.5 Goals	10/111.00	9%	8%	12.41	-11.4%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match corners	Under 7.5 Corners	11/43.75	27%	23%	4.38	-14.4%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 18.5 Corners	33/134.00	3%	3%	39.84	-14.7%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match cards	Over 4.5 Cards	11/102.10	48%	40%	2.50	-15.9%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match cards	Under 1.5 Cards	15/28.50	12%	10%	10.34	-17.8%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match cards	Over 5.5 Cards	11/53.20	31%	26%	3.91	-18.1%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 16.5 Corners	12/113.00	8%	6%	15.90	-18.2%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match goals	Over 2.5 Goals	4/61.67	60%	48%	2.09	-20.1%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 17.5 Corners	18/119.00	5%	4%	24.21	-21.5%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match corners	Under 6.5 Corners	17/45.25	19%	15%	6.85	-23.4%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match goals	Over 3.5 Goals	7/42.75	36%	27%	3.64	-24.6%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match cards	Over 6.5 Cards	4/15.00	20%	15%	6.74	-25.8%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match corners	Under 5.5 Corners	15/28.50	12%	8%	11.89	-28.5%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match goals	Over 4.5 Goals	4/15.00	20%	13%	7.47	-33.0%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match cards	Under 0.5 Cards	28/129.00	3%	2%	45.66	-36.5%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match cards	Over 7.5 Cards	7/18.00	13%	8%	12.66	-36.8%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match corners	Under 4.5 Corners	14/115.00	7%	4%	24.75	-39.4%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match goals	Over 5.5 Goals	8/19.00	11%	6%	16.99	-47.0%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match cards	Over 9.5 Cards	25/126.00	4%	2%	52.36	-50.3%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match corners	Under 3.5 Corners	28/129.00	3%	2%	61.16	-52.6%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match goals	Over 6.5 Goals	18/119.00	5%	2%	42.92	-55.7%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match goals	Over 7.5 Goals	50/151.00	2%	1%	116.28	-56.1%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match cards	Over 8.5 Cards	10/111.00	9%	4%	25.16	-56.3%	54%	14	AVOID
Total match goals	Over 8.5 Goals	80/181.00	1%	0%	350.88	-76.9%	54%	14	AVOID
Match outcome (model price)	CHE win	—	—	38%	2.60	—	54%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	Draw	—	—	27%	3.70	—	54%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	BHA win	—	—	35%	2.90	—	54%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	Both teams to score	—	—	53%	1.89	—	54%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	CHE -1 goal handicap	—	—	17%	5.78	—	54%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	BHA +1 goal handicap	—	—	83%	1.21	—	54%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	CHE draw no bet	—	—	53%	1.90	—	54%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	CHE double chance	—	—	65%	1.53	—	54%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	BHA double chance	—	—	62%	1.63	—	54%	0	NO PRICE

Player fixed-odds markets

Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only

Player	Market	Selection	Price	Implied	Model	Projection	EV	Conf	Score	Signal
JamesCHE	Player Attempted Passes	Reece James - 60+	4/61.67	60%	71%	64.71	+19.0%	62%	65	BET
JamesCHE	Player Attempted Passes	Reece James - 65+	23/202.15	47%	51%	64.71	+10.0%	62%	46	BET
YohannaBHA	Player Attempted Passes	Zadok Yohanna - 40+	19/45.75	17%	51%	39.12	+190.3%	55%	0	REFERENCE
OsmanBHA	Player Attempted Passes	Ibrahim Osman - 40+	17/45.25	19%	50%	39.12	+163.2%	56%	0	REFERENCE
YohannaBHA	Player Attempted Passes	Zadok Yohanna - 35+	9/52.80	36%	70%	39.12	+96.6%	55%	0	REFERENCE
OsmanBHA	Player Attempted Passes	Ibrahim Osman - 35+	13/82.63	38%	70%	39.12	+84.2%	56%	0	REFERENCE
YohannaBHA	Player Attempted Passes	Zadok Yohanna - 30+	7/101.70	59%	85%	39.12	+44.6%	55%	0	REFERENCE
OsmanBHA	Player Attempted Passes	Ibrahim Osman - 30+	8/131.62	62%	85%	39.12	+37.3%	56%	0	REFERENCE
ChavarriaCHE	Player Attempted Passes	Pep Chavarria - 55+	19/102.90	35%	47%	52.90	+37.0%	59%	0	REFERENCE
ChavarriaCHE	Player Attempted Passes	Pep Chavarria - 60+	18/54.60	22%	30%	52.90	+36.6%	59%	0	REFERENCE
ChavarriaCHE	Player Attempted Passes	Pep Chavarria - 50+	19/201.95	51%	64%	52.90	+24.3%	59%	0	REFERENCE

Player spread markets

Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines

Player	Market	Sell	Buy	Model	Floor → ceiling	Edge	Prob	Conf	Opp	Signal
WiefferBHA	Player Performance	18.0	20.5	10.8	4.9 17.9	7.16	92%	72%	76	SELL
HinshelwoodBHA	Player Performance	15.0	17.5	9.1	2.0 20.0	5.89	81%	80%	71	SELL
LacroixCHE	Player Performance	21.0	24.0	16.7	10.2 24.4	4.34	81%	78%	62	SELL
AyariBHA	Player Performance	15.5	18.0	9.5	3.9 16.5	5.99	90%	64%	62	SELL
GomezBHA	Player Performance	18.0	20.5	13.6	6.0 22.6	4.45	79%	71%	61	SELL
GustoCHE	Player Performance	15.0	17.5	11.5	6.1 18.0	3.48	80%	69%	55	SELL
João PedroCHE	Player Performance	18.5	21.0	15.7	6.5 27.6	2.83	69%	71%	52	SELL
HinshelwoodBHA	Shots on Target	0.6	0.8	0.2	0.0 0.9	0.42	83%	80%	52	SELL
VuskovicBHA	Player Performance	21.0	24.0	14.7	9.0 21.3	6.31	91%	42%	48	SELL
EnzoCHE	Player Performance	21.0	24.0	19.4	11.1 28.8	1.65	63%	71%	40	SELL
De CuyperBHA	Player Performance	16.0	18.5	11.3	4.2 21.5	4.66	79%	62%	40	SELL
GomezBHA	Shots on Target	0.5	0.7	0.3	0.0 1.2	0.25	78%	71%	40	SELL
LacroixCHE	Shots on Target	0.3	0.5	0.1	0.0 0.7	0.16	87%	78%	36	SELL
HatoCHE	Shots on Target	0.2	0.4	0.0	0.0 0.2	0.17	97%	62%	33	SELL
AyariBHA	Shots on Target	0.3	0.5	0.1	0.0 0.5	0.20	91%	64%	30	SELL
De CuyperBHA	Shots on Target	0.5	0.7	0.1	0.0 0.6	0.39	90%	62%	25	SELL
VuskovicBHA	Shots on Target	0.4	0.6	0.1	0.0 0.3	0.34	94%	42%	22	SELL
GeorginioBHA	Shots on Target	0.5	0.7	0.2	0.0 1.0	0.30	82%	58%	20	SELL
RogersCHE	Player Performance	16.5	19.0	16.1	7.3 27.6	-0.37	30%	83%	16	NO BET
João PedroCHE	Shots on Target	1.0	1.2	0.7	0.0 1.9	0.33	15%	71%	15	NO BET
RogersCHE	Shots on Target	0.9	1.1	0.6	0.0 1.9	0.25	14%	83%	15	NO BET
DavidBHA	Shots on Target	0.7	0.9	0.2	0.0 1.2	0.46	79%	34%	14	SELL
WiefferBHA	Shots on Target	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.0 0.3	-0.14	6%	72%	13	NO BET
PalmerCHE	Player Performance	21.0	24.0	20.5	11.2 32.2	-0.46	29%	66%	11	NO BET
DunkBHA	Shots on Target	0.1	0.3	0.0	0.0 0.2	-0.07	3%	80%	11	NO BET
GustoCHE	Shots on Target	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.0 0.5	-0.09	10%	69%	10	NO BET
HatoCHE	Player Performance	12.5	15.0	12.2	6.6 18.7	-0.31	23%	62%	9	NO BET
DunkBHA	Player Performance	16.0	18.5	16.6	11.3 22.6	0.00	30%	80%	8	NO BET
PalmerCHE	Shots on Target	1.0	1.2	0.8	0.0 2.2	0.21	19%	66%	7	NO BET
SvobodaBHA	Player Performance	—	—	12.2	6.3 19.0	—	0%	51%	0	NO BET
YohannaBHA	Player Performance	—	—	12.5	6.5 19.7	—	0%	48%	0	NO BET
DavidBHA	Player Performance	9.5	12.0	9.0	2.8 17.7	-0.52	24%	34%	0	NO BET
HadjamBHA	Player Performance	—	—	12.2	6.4 19.2	—	0%	45%	0	NO BET
BoscagliBHA	Player Performance	18.0	20.5	19.5	13.3 26.4	0.00	38%	49%	0	NO BET
F.KadıoğluBHA	Player Performance	—	—	11.4	5.9 17.7	—	0%	75%	0	NO BET
VerbruggenBHA	Player Performance	—	—	6.2	3.8 8.4	—	0%	80%	0	NO BET
GroßBHA	Player Performance	—	—	14.8	8.8 21.9	—	0%	63%	0	NO BET
GeorginioBHA	Player Performance	12.0	14.5	10.5	3.7 19.2	-1.48	22%	58%	0	NO BET
StruijkBHA	Player Performance	—	—	11.4	6.0 17.6	—	0%	73%	0	NO BET
YalcouyéBHA	Player Performance	—	—	12.6	6.5 19.9	—	0%	50%	0	NO BET
FofanaCHE	Player Performance	14.0	16.5	16.5	9.8 23.8	0.00	48%	59%	0	NO BET
OsmanBHA	Player Performance	—	—	12.7	6.6 20.1	—	0%	49%	0	NO BET
JamesCHE	Player Performance	21.0	24.0	19.9	12.8 28.1	-1.15	21%	63%	0	NO BET
TosinCHE	Player Performance	—	—	19.9	12.8 27.2	—	0%	59%	0	NO BET
ChavarriaCHE	Player Performance	—	—	14.6	8.3 21.8	—	0%	51%	0	NO BET
CaicedoCHE	Player Performance	20.0	23.0	20.7	12.4 30.0	0.00	33%	61%	0	NO BET
NetoCHE	Player Performance	—	—	11.6	5.6 19.5	—	0%	65%	0	NO BET
HendersonCHE	Player Performance	—	—	14.1	8.1 21.2	—	0%	71%	0	NO BET
WelbeckCHE	Player Performance	—	—	10.4	3.1 20.2	—	0%	62%	0	NO BET
AcheampongCHE	Player Performance	19.5	22.0	19.4	13.1 26.6	-0.13	26%	57%	0	NO BET
EstêvãoCHE	Player Performance	—	—	13.5	6.3 22.1	—	0%	59%	0	NO BET
SánchezCHE	Player Performance	—	—	8.2	5.5 11.0	—	0%	76%	0	NO BET
ColwillCHE	Player Performance	17.5	20.0	16.5	10.5 23.5	-0.96	21%	57%	0	NO BET
LaviaCHE	Player Performance	13.0	15.5	12.8	6.6 20.4	-0.22	26%	56%	0	NO BET
CostinhaBHA	Player Performance	—	—	13.5	7.1 20.9	—	0%	47%	0	NO BET
SvobodaBHA	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.3	—	0%	51%	0	NO BET
YohannaBHA	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.5	—	0%	48%	0	NO BET
HadjamBHA	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.3	—	0%	45%	0	NO BET
BoscagliBHA	Shots on Target	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0 0.0	-0.04	1%	49%	0	NO BET
F.KadıoğluBHA	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.3	—	0%	75%	0	NO BET
VerbruggenBHA	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.0	—	0%	80%	0	NO BET
GroßBHA	Shots on Target	—	—	0.2	0.0 0.8	—	0%	63%	0	NO BET
StruijkBHA	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.2	—	0%	73%	0	NO BET
YalcouyéBHA	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.6	—	0%	50%	0	NO BET
JamesCHE	Shots on Target	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.0 1.2	-0.04	23%	63%	0	NO BET
OsmanBHA	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.6	—	0%	49%	0	NO BET
FofanaCHE	Shots on Target	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0 0.2	-0.01	4%	59%	0	NO BET
TosinCHE	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.1	—	0%	59%	0	NO BET
EnzoCHE	Shots on Target	0.6	0.8	0.6	0.0 1.8	0.00	45%	71%	0	NO BET
ChavarriaCHE	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.7	—	0%	51%	0	NO BET
CaicedoCHE	Shots on Target	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0 0.8	-0.04	14%	61%	0	NO BET
NetoCHE	Shots on Target	—	—	0.3	0.0 1.2	—	0%	65%	0	NO BET
HendersonCHE	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.1	—	0%	71%	0	NO BET
WelbeckCHE	Shots on Target	—	—	0.7	0.0 2.0	—	0%	62%	0	NO BET
AcheampongCHE	Shots on Target	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.0 0.8	-0.14	15%	57%	0	NO BET
EstêvãoCHE	Shots on Target	—	—	0.5	0.0 1.5	—	0%	59%	0	NO BET
SánchezCHE	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.0	—	0%	76%	0	NO BET
ColwillCHE	Shots on Target	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.0 0.5	-0.09	10%	57%	0	NO BET
LaviaCHE	Shots on Target	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0 1.1	0.00	20%	56%	0	NO BET
CostinhaBHA	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.4	—	0%	47%	0	NO BET

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%
1–010.4%
0–19.1%

Team news & model notes

Chelsea

M.Sarr (u), Jörgensen (u), Chalobah (u), B.Badiashile (u)

Brighton

Buonanotte (u), Minteh (i), Mitoma (i), Watson (u), Howell (u), Tzimas (i)

Model updated 30/08/2026, 02:25:47 · prices 29/08/2026, 14:31:21

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