£
ExclusiveFreeBets
.com

Chelsea v Hull City Prediction & Match Markets

Sat 12 Sept, 14:00 · Gameweek 4 · Chelsea (home)

Predicted score

1–1

11% likely

Expected goals
1.41 – 1.49
Total 2.90
CHE win
36%
Draw 25%
HUL win
39%
BTTS 57%
Lineup confidence
79%
20,000 simulations

Minimum odds 1.50

Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.

On

Three best fixed-odds bets

Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated

No rated fixed-odds bets for this fixture.

Three best spread bets

One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently

No rated spread bets for this fixture.

Predicted line-ups

Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model

Chelsea

5-4-1 · High confidence
  1. 1PendersGKP
  2. 2LacroixDEF
  3. 3JamesDEF
  4. 4GustoDEF
  5. 5FofanaDEF
  6. 6HatoDEF
  7. 7RogersMID
  8. 8PalmerMID
  9. 9EnzoMID
  10. 10NetoMID
  11. 11João PedroFWD

Bench: Colwill, Sánchez, Welbeck, Caicedo

Doubts: Caicedo

Out: Palestra, Henderson

Full Chelsea predicted XI →

Hull City

5-4-1 · High confidence
  1. 1TzolakisGKP
  2. 2EganDEF
  3. 3AjayiDEF
  4. 4GilesDEF
  5. 5MendyDEF
  6. 6CoyleDEF
  7. 7BelloumiMID
  8. 8SlaterMID
  9. 9StroudMID
  10. 10MoritaMID
  11. 11McBurnieFWD

Bench: Millar, Ömür, Akintola, Hjertø-Dahl

Out: Crooks, Butland, Hughes, Zambrano, Jacob, Matazo, Gyabi, Gelhardt

Full Hull City predicted XI →

Match spread markets

Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line

MarketSellBuyModelMost likelyFloor → ceilingEdgeProbConfOppSignal
Total match goals——2.902.00
1.0
5.0
——48%0NO PRICE
Total match shots——28.026.0
19.0
38.0
——48%0NO PRICE
Total match shots on target——9.18.0
5.0
14.0
——48%0NO PRICE
Total match corners——10.09.0
6.0
15.0
——48%0NO PRICE
Total match cards——4.464.00
2.0
7.0
——48%0NO PRICE
Total match fouls——20.519.0
13.0
28.0
——48%0NO PRICE
Goal supremacy (home)——-0.080.00
-2.0
2.0
——48%0NO PRICE
Shot supremacy (home)——8.28.0
1.0
16.0
——48%0NO PRICE
SOT supremacy (home)——0.61.0
-3.0
5.0
——48%0NO PRICE
Corner supremacy (home)——4.23.0
0.0
9.0
——48%0NO PRICE
Card supremacy (home)——-0.120.00
-3.0
3.0
——48%0NO PRICE

Match fixed-odds markets

Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only

MarketSelectionPriceImpliedModelFair oddsEVConfOppSignal
Match outcome (model price)CHE win——36%2.80—48%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)Draw——25%4.00—48%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)HUL win——39%2.54—48%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)Both teams to score——57%1.75—48%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)CHE -1 goal handicap——17%6.04—48%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)HUL +1 goal handicap——83%1.20—48%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)CHE draw no bet——48%2.10—48%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)CHE double chance——61%1.65—48%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)HUL double chance——64%1.55—48%0NO PRICE

Player fixed-odds markets

Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only

No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.

Player spread markets

Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines

PlayerMarketSellBuyModelFloor → ceilingEdgeProbConfOppSignal
RogersCHEPlayer Performance——16.2
7.6
27.7
—0%79%0NO BET
HendersonCHEPlayer Performance——14.8
8.7
22.0
—0%70%0NO BET
WelbeckCHEPlayer Performance——10.9
3.5
20.8
—0%59%0NO BET
SánchezCHEPlayer Performance——8.8
6.0
11.6
—0%73%0NO BET
JamesCHEPlayer Performance——20.2
13.2
28.3
—0%61%0NO BET
GustoCHEPlayer Performance——11.6
6.3
18.0
—0%65%0NO BET
FofanaCHEPlayer Performance——17.2
10.4
24.7
—0%59%0NO BET
TosinCHEPlayer Performance——20.9
13.6
28.5
—0%58%0NO BET
HatoCHEPlayer Performance——12.7
7.1
19.3
—0%61%0NO BET
AcheampongCHEPlayer Performance——20.1
13.8
27.5
—0%56%0NO BET
PalmerCHEPlayer Performance——21.4
11.9
33.3
—0%62%0NO BET
EnzoCHEPlayer Performance——19.7
11.5
29.0
—0%68%0NO BET
NetoCHEPlayer Performance——11.8
5.8
19.6
—0%61%0NO BET
EstêvãoCHEPlayer Performance——14.1
6.8
22.8
—0%57%0NO BET
CaicedoCHEPlayer Performance——21.1
12.8
30.3
—0%62%0NO BET
LaviaCHEPlayer Performance——13.3
7.0
21.1
—0%55%0NO BET
João PedroCHEPlayer Performance——16.3
7.0
28.3
—0%66%0NO BET
LacroixCHEPlayer Performance——16.9
10.6
24.5
—0%74%0NO BET
PhillipsHULPlayer Performance——3.8
1.4
6.5
—0%43%0NO BET
AjayiHULPlayer Performance——10.7
4.4
19.6
—0%78%0NO BET
CoyleHULPlayer Performance——8.6
3.8
14.3
—0%43%0NO BET
McCarthyHULPlayer Performance——11.4
5.6
18.1
—0%41%0NO BET
BelloumiHULPlayer Performance——13.6
7.3
21.3
—0%37%0NO BET
MillarHULPlayer Performance——12.3
5.8
20.2
—0%32%0NO BET
DowellHULPlayer Performance——11.3
5.5
18.3
—0%50%0NO BET
CrooksHULPlayer Performance——12.7
6.5
20.2
—0%34%0NO BET
SlaterHULPlayer Performance——12.1
6.2
19.4
—0%29%0NO BET
ÖmürHULPlayer Performance——12.5
6.2
20.1
—0%38%0NO BET
McBurnieHULPlayer Performance——9.2
3.0
17.6
—0%64%0NO BET
AkintolaHULPlayer Performance——12.5
6.1
20.1
—0%42%0NO BET
MoritaHULPlayer Performance——12.4
6.1
20.0
—0%46%0NO BET
TzolakisHULPlayer Performance——5.4
2.6
8.5
—0%48%0NO BET
Hjertø-DahlHULPlayer Performance——12.5
6.2
20.2
—0%48%0NO BET
StroudHULPlayer Performance——10.0
4.6
16.8
—0%50%0NO BET
ChavarriaCHEPlayer Performance——15.3
8.8
22.7
—0%50%0NO BET
HerringtonHULPlayer Performance——11.6
5.7
18.4
—0%41%0NO BET
MendyHULPlayer Performance——9.9
4.3
17.0
—0%51%0NO BET
Gourna-DouathHULPlayer Performance——12.5
6.2
20.3
—0%51%0NO BET
RogersCHEShots on Target——0.6
0.0
1.8
—0%79%0NO BET
HendersonCHEShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.2
—0%70%0NO BET
WelbeckCHEShots on Target——0.7
0.0
2.1
—0%59%0NO BET
SánchezCHEShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.0
—0%73%0NO BET
JamesCHEShots on Target——0.3
0.0
1.1
—0%61%0NO BET
GustoCHEShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.5
—0%65%0NO BET
FofanaCHEShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.2
—0%59%0NO BET
TosinCHEShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.1
—0%58%0NO BET
HatoCHEShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.2
—0%61%0NO BET
AcheampongCHEShots on Target——0.2
0.0
0.9
—0%56%0NO BET
PalmerCHEShots on Target——0.9
0.0
2.3
—0%62%0NO BET
EnzoCHEShots on Target——0.6
0.0
1.6
—0%68%0NO BET
NetoCHEShots on Target——0.3
0.0
1.2
—0%61%0NO BET
EstêvãoCHEShots on Target——0.5
0.0
1.6
—0%57%0NO BET
CaicedoCHEShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.7
—0%62%0NO BET
LaviaCHEShots on Target——0.2
0.0
1.1
—0%55%0NO BET
João PedroCHEShots on Target——0.7
0.0
2.0
—0%66%0NO BET
LacroixCHEShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.7
—0%74%0NO BET
PhillipsHULShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.0
—0%43%0NO BET
AjayiHULShots on Target——0.2
0.0
0.8
—0%78%0NO BET
CoyleHULShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.2
—0%43%0NO BET
McCarthyHULShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.3
—0%41%0NO BET
BelloumiHULShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.7
—0%37%0NO BET
MillarHULShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.6
—0%32%0NO BET
DowellHULShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.5
—0%50%0NO BET
CrooksHULShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.7
—0%34%0NO BET
SlaterHULShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.6
—0%29%0NO BET
ÖmürHULShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.6
—0%38%0NO BET
McBurnieHULShots on Target——0.3
0.0
1.2
—0%64%0NO BET
AkintolaHULShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.6
—0%42%0NO BET
MoritaHULShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.6
—0%46%0NO BET
TzolakisHULShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.0
—0%48%0NO BET
Hjertø-DahlHULShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.6
—0%48%0NO BET
StroudHULShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.4
—0%50%0NO BET
ChavarriaCHEShots on Target——0.2
0.0
0.8
—0%50%0NO BET
HerringtonHULShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.3
—0%41%0NO BET
MendyHULShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.4
—0%51%0NO BET
Gourna-DouathHULShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.7
—0%51%0NO BET

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.4%
  • 0–18.5%
  • 1–08.4%

Team news & model notes

Chelsea

M.Sarr (u), Jörgensen (u), Chalobah (u), B.Badiashile (u)

Hull City

Burstow (u)

Model updated 30/08/2026, 02:26:26 · no live prices captured

Today's Football Spread Betting Tips →Today's Premier League Football Tips →All Premier League matches →