Matches
Everton v Man Utd Prediction & Match Markets
Sun 6 Sept, 13:00 · Gameweek 3 · Everton (home)
Predicted score
1–0
17% likely
Expected goals
1.41 – 0.72
Total 2.13
EVE win
53%
Draw 28%
MUN win
19%
BTTS 38%
Lineup confidence
76%
20,000 simulations
Minimum odds 1.50
Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.
On
Three best fixed-odds bets
Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated
#1 · Game
79Under 10.5 Corners
Total match corners
Model 84% vs market 65%
Price 8/15EV +29.4%Conf 76%
#2 · Game
66Under 2.5 Goals
Total match goals
Model 64% vs market 48%
Price 11/10EV +35.2%Conf 76%
Three best spread bets
One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently
#1 · Game
69SELL Total match corners at 9.6
Total match corners
Model 7.5 (range 4.0–11.0)
Edge 2.10Conf 76%
#2 · Game
66SELL Total match goals at 2.90
Total match goals
Model 2.13 (range 0.00–4.00)
Edge 0.77Conf 76%
#3 · Game
40SELL Total booking points at 38.00
Total booking points
Model 34.03 (range 10.60–63.60)
Edge 3.97Conf 76%
Predicted line-ups
Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model
Everton
4-5-1 · High confidence
- 1PickfordGKP
- 2TarkowskiDEF
- 3BranthwaiteDEF
- 4MykolenkoDEF
- 5O'BrienDEF
- 6GarnerMID
- 7Dewsbury-HallMID
- 8NdiayeMID
- 9GeorgeMID
- 10ArmstrongMID
- 11BarryFWD
Bench: Röhl, Keane, Johnson, Beto
Doubts: Hackney
Out: Nørgaard, Iroegbunam
Full Everton predicted XI →Man Utd
4-5-1 · Medium confidence
- 1LammensGKP
- 2ShawDEF
- 3MaguireDEF
- 4DalotDEF
- 5HeavenDEF
- 6B.FernandesMID
- 7Andrey SantosMID
- 8CunhaMID
- 9MbeumoMID
- 10TielemansMID
- 11ŠeškoFWD
Bench: Dorgu, Mazraoui, Darlow, Yoro
Doubts: Heaton
Out: Amad, Baleba, De Ligt, Ugarte
Full Man Utd predicted XI →Match spread markets
Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line
| Market | Sell | Buy | Model | Most likely | Floor → ceiling | Edge | Prob | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match corners | 9.6 | 10.1 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 4.0 11.0 | 2.1 | 76% | 76% | 69 | SELL |
| Total match goals | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.13 | 1.00 | 0.0 4.0 | 0.77 | 64% | 76% | 66 | SELL |
| Total booking points | 38.00 | 42.00 | 34.03 | 31.80 | 10.6 63.6 | 3.97 | 61% | 76% | 40 | SELL |
| Total match shots | — | — | 21.0 | 20.0 | 14.0 29.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots on target | — | — | 7.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 11.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match fouls | — | — | 19.1 | 18.0 | 12.0 27.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Goal supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.70 | 0.00 | -1.0 3.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Shot supremacy (home) | — | — | -1.6 | -2.0 | -8.0 5.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| SOT supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.4 | 1.0 | -3.0 4.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Corner supremacy (home) | — | — | 1.7 | 2.0 | -2.0 5.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card supremacy (home) | — | — | -0.35 | 0.00 | -3.0 2.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Match fixed-odds markets
Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only
| Market | Selection | Price | Implied | Model | Fair odds | EV | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match corners | Under 10.5 Corners | 8/151.53 | 65% | 84% | 1.18 | +29.4% | 76% | 79 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 9.5 Corners | 5/61.83 | 55% | 76% | 1.31 | +39.8% | 76% | 76 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 8.5 Corners | 7/52.40 | 42% | 66% | 1.51 | +58.6% | 76% | 68 | BET |
| Total match goals | Under 2.5 Goals | 11/102.10 | 48% | 64% | 1.55 | +35.2% | 76% | 66 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 7.5 Corners | 11/53.20 | 31% | 54% | 1.85 | +72.8% | 76% | 58 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 6.5 Corners | 15/44.75 | 21% | 40% | 2.49 | +91.1% | 76% | 55 | BET |
| Total match goals | Under 1.5 Goals | 3/14.00 | 25% | 39% | 2.58 | +54.9% | 76% | 55 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 5.5 Corners | 6/17.00 | 14% | 28% | 3.63 | +92.6% | 76% | 53 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 4.5 Corners | 10/111.00 | 9% | 16% | 6.20 | +77.5% | 76% | 38 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 3.5 Corners | 22/123.00 | 4% | 8% | 12.42 | +85.2% | 76% | 29 | LEAN |
| Total match goals | Under 0.5 Goals | 9/110.00 | 10% | 13% | 7.75 | +29.0% | 76% | 28 | LEAN |
| Total match goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 4/61.67 | 60% | 36% | 2.81 | -40.7% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 8.5 Corners | 1/21.50 | 67% | 34% | 2.95 | -49.1% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 3.5 Goals | 17/102.70 | 37% | 18% | 5.68 | -52.4% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 9.5 Corners | 5/61.83 | 55% | 24% | 4.22 | -56.5% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 4.5 Goals | 4/15.00 | 20% | 8% | 13.29 | -62.4% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 10.5 Corners | 13/102.30 | 43% | 16% | 6.42 | -64.2% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 11.5 Corners | 2/13.00 | 33% | 10% | 10.09 | -70.3% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 5.5 Goals | 8/19.00 | 11% | 3% | 36.43 | -75.3% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 12.5 Corners | 3/14.00 | 25% | 6% | 17.01 | -76.5% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 13.5 Corners | 9/25.50 | 18% | 3% | 29.59 | -81.4% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 6.5 Goals | 18/119.00 | 5% | 1% | 105.82 | -82.0% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 7.5 Goals | 50/151.00 | 2% | 0% | 344.83 | -85.2% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 14.5 Corners | 13/27.50 | 13% | 2% | 51.95 | -85.6% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 15.5 Corners | 9/110.00 | 10% | 1% | 90.50 | -88.9% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 16.5 Corners | 14/115.00 | 7% | 1% | 162.60 | -90.8% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 17.5 Corners | 22/123.00 | 4% | 0% | 281.69 | -91.8% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 18.5 Corners | 40/141.00 | 2% | 0% | 540.54 | -92.4% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Match outcome (model price) | EVE win | — | — | 53% | 1.88 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Draw | — | — | 28% | 3.63 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MUN win | — | — | 19% | 5.22 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score | — | — | 38% | 2.66 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | EVE -1 goal handicap | — | — | 27% | 3.77 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MUN +1 goal handicap | — | — | 73% | 1.36 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | EVE draw no bet | — | — | 74% | 1.36 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | EVE double chance | — | — | 81% | 1.24 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MUN double chance | — | — | 47% | 2.14 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Player fixed-odds markets
Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only
No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.
Player spread markets
Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines
| Player | Market | Sell | Buy | Model | Floor → ceiling | Edge | Prob | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TielemansMUN | Player Performance | — | — | 14.4 | 8.1 22.1 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| Andrey SantosMUN | Player Performance | — | — | 14.0 | 7.9 21.4 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| JohnsonEVE | Player Performance | — | — | 6.6 | 1.6 12.9 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| PickfordEVE | Player Performance | — | — | 5.9 | 3.5 8.2 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| TraversEVE | Player Performance | — | — | 4.4 | 1.9 7.2 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| KingEVE | Player Performance | — | — | 4.4 | 1.9 7.2 | — | 0% | 46% | 0 | NO BET |
| TarkowskiEVE | Player Performance | — | — | 11.3 | 6.0 17.6 | — | 0% | 77% | 0 | NO BET |
| BranthwaiteEVE | Player Performance | — | — | 12.8 | 7.2 19.3 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| KeaneEVE | Player Performance | — | — | 9.6 | 4.2 16.2 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| O'BrienEVE | Player Performance | — | — | 7.7 | 2.8 13.6 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| MykolenkoEVE | Player Performance | — | — | 10.1 | 5.1 16.0 | — | 0% | 71% | 0 | NO BET |
| AznouEVE | Player Performance | — | — | 12.2 | 6.2 19.2 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| Dewsbury-HallEVE | Player Performance | — | — | 13.8 | 6.8 23.2 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| NdiayeEVE | Player Performance | — | — | 13.6 | 6.5 22.4 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| GarnerEVE | Player Performance | — | — | 16.0 | 8.6 24.5 | — | 0% | 74% | 0 | NO BET |
| AlcarazEVE | Player Performance | — | — | 14.0 | 6.3 24.0 | — | 0% | 52% | 0 | NO BET |
| ArmstrongEVE | Player Performance | — | — | 7.6 | 2.2 14.5 | — | 0% | 54% | 0 | NO BET |
| RöhlEVE | Player Performance | — | — | 10.9 | 4.9 18.0 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| BetoEVE | Player Performance | — | — | 5.6 | -0.3 13.9 | — | 0% | 53% | 0 | NO BET |
| BarryEVE | Player Performance | — | — | 4.8 | -0.7 13.9 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| DarlowMUN | Player Performance | — | — | 7.3 | 4.3 10.3 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| LammensMUN | Player Performance | — | — | 5.9 | 3.6 8.1 | — | 0% | 73% | 0 | NO BET |
| DorguMUN | Player Performance | — | — | 10.2 | 3.4 18.7 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| DalotMUN | Player Performance | — | — | 11.8 | 6.0 18.6 | — | 0% | 68% | 0 | NO BET |
| MaguireMUN | Player Performance | — | — | 14.8 | 9.2 21.5 | — | 0% | 63% | 0 | NO BET |
| MartinezMUN | Player Performance | — | — | 15.8 | 9.8 22.4 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| YoroMUN | Player Performance | — | — | 14.0 | 7.8 21.1 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| HeavenMUN | Player Performance | — | — | 14.9 | 9.7 21.1 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| MazraouiMUN | Player Performance | — | — | 12.6 | 6.9 19.5 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| ShawMUN | Player Performance | — | — | 14.5 | 8.9 20.9 | — | 0% | 79% | 0 | NO BET |
| B.FernandesMUN | Player Performance | — | — | 21.8 | 14.6 30.6 | — | 0% | 77% | 0 | NO BET |
| MbeumoMUN | Player Performance | — | — | 14.1 | 6.9 23.4 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| CunhaMUN | Player Performance | — | — | 12.8 | 5.8 21.6 | — | 0% | 63% | 0 | NO BET |
| MountMUN | Player Performance | — | — | 13.7 | 6.8 22.0 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| MainooMUN | Player Performance | — | — | 17.0 | 10.2 24.9 | — | 0% | 58% | 0 | NO BET |
| ŠeškoMUN | Player Performance | — | — | 10.0 | 2.6 19.6 | — | 0% | 53% | 0 | NO BET |
| ZirkzeeMUN | Player Performance | — | — | 15.4 | 7.0 25.8 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| TielemansMUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| Andrey SantosMUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| JohnsonEVE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| PickfordEVE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| TraversEVE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| KingEVE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 46% | 0 | NO BET |
| TarkowskiEVE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 77% | 0 | NO BET |
| BranthwaiteEVE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| KeaneEVE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| O'BrienEVE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| MykolenkoEVE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.1 | — | 0% | 71% | 0 | NO BET |
| AznouEVE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| Dewsbury-HallEVE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.1 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| NdiayeEVE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.3 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| GarnerEVE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 74% | 0 | NO BET |
| AlcarazEVE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 52% | 0 | NO BET |
| ArmstrongEVE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 54% | 0 | NO BET |
| RöhlEVE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| BetoEVE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.3 | — | 0% | 53% | 0 | NO BET |
| BarryEVE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.9 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| DarlowMUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| LammensMUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 73% | 0 | NO BET |
| DorguMUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| DalotMUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 68% | 0 | NO BET |
| MaguireMUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.0 | — | 0% | 63% | 0 | NO BET |
| MartinezMUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.2 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| YoroMUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| HeavenMUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| MazraouiMUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.2 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| ShawMUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.2 | — | 0% | 79% | 0 | NO BET |
| B.FernandesMUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.5 | 0.0 1.5 | — | 0% | 77% | 0 | NO BET |
| MbeumoMUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.7 | 0.0 2.1 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| CunhaMUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.6 | 0.0 1.8 | — | 0% | 63% | 0 | NO BET |
| MountMUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.1 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| MainooMUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 58% | 0 | NO BET |
| ŠeškoMUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 1.0 | 0.0 2.6 | — | 0% | 53% | 0 | NO BET |
| ZirkzeeMUN | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.7 | 0.0 2.1 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
Most likely scorelines
- 1–017.3%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–111.4%
Team news & model notes
Everton
Nørgaard (i), Iroegbunam (i), Hackney (d)
Man Utd
Bayindir (u), Fredricson (u), Ugarte (i), Baleba (i), De Ligt (i), Amad (i)
Model updated 30/08/2026, 02:25:11 · prices 29/08/2026, 14:31:21