Matches
Fulham v Crystal Palace Prediction & Match Markets
Sat 5 Sept, 14:00 · Gameweek 3 · Fulham (home)
Predicted score
1–0
10% likely
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.01
Total 2.97
FUL win
59%
Draw 22%
CRY win
19%
BTTS 54%
Lineup confidence
75%
20,000 simulations
Minimum odds 1.50
Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.
On
Three best fixed-odds bets
Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated
#1 · Game
52Under 10.5 Corners
Total match corners
Model 68% vs market 65%
Price 8/15EV +3.6%Conf 77%
#2 · Game
32Over 3.5 Goals
Total match goals
Model 34% vs market 31%
Price 11/5EV +9.7%Conf 77%
Three best spread bets
One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently
#1 · Game
46SELL Total booking points at 38.00
Total booking points
Model 32.75 (range 10.60–63.60)
Edge 5.25Conf 77%
#2 · Game
29SELL Total match corners at 9.6
Total match corners
Model 9.2 (range 5.0–14.0)
Edge 0.40Conf 77%
#3 · Game
28BUY Total match goals at 2.85
Total match goals
Model 2.97 (range 1.00–5.00)
Edge 0.12Conf 77%
Predicted line-ups
Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model
Fulham
4-5-1 · High confidence
- 1LenoGKP
- 2AndersenDEF
- 3RobinsonDEF
- 4BasseyDEF
- 5CastagneDEF
- 6IwobiMID
- 7BobbMID
- 8BergeMID
- 9KingMID
- 10PalaciosMID
- 11GonzaloFWD
Bench: J.Cuenca, Smith Rowe, Tete, Sessegnon
Doubts: De Fougerolles
Out: Cairney
Full Fulham predicted XI →Crystal Palace
5-4-1 · High confidence
- 1HendersonGKP
- 2MitchellDEF
- 3RichardsDEF
- 4CanvotDEF
- 5TomiyasuDEF
- 6KhalailiDEF
- 7WhartonMID
- 8YeremyMID
- 9KamadaMID
- 10McNeilMID
- 11Strand LarsenFWD
Bench: Muñoz, Nketiah, Lerma, Hughes
Out: Mateta, Sarr, Chadi Riad
Full Crystal Palace predicted XI →Match spread markets
Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line
| Market | Sell | Buy | Model | Most likely | Floor → ceiling | Edge | Prob | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total booking points | 38.00 | 42.00 | 32.75 | 21.20 | 10.6 63.6 | 5.25 | 63% | 77% | 46 | SELL |
| Total match corners | 9.6 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 5.0 14.0 | 0.4 | 57% | 77% | 29 | SELL |
| Total match goals | 2.65 | 2.85 | 2.97 | 2.00 | 1.0 5.0 | 0.12 | 56% | 77% | 28 | BUY |
| Total match shots | — | — | 25.8 | 25.0 | 17.0 35.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots on target | — | — | 8.4 | 7.0 | 4.0 13.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match fouls | — | — | 17.9 | 17.0 | 11.0 25.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Goal supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.94 | 1.00 | -1.0 3.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Shot supremacy (home) | — | — | 6.5 | 7.0 | -1.0 14.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| SOT supremacy (home) | — | — | 2.3 | 2.0 | -1.0 6.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Corner supremacy (home) | — | — | 3.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 8.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.39 | 0.00 | -2.0 3.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Match fixed-odds markets
Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only
| Market | Selection | Price | Implied | Model | Fair odds | EV | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match corners | Under 10.5 Corners | 8/151.53 | 65% | 68% | 1.48 | +3.6% | 77% | 52 | LEAN |
| Total match corners | Under 9.5 Corners | 5/61.83 | 55% | 57% | 1.76 | +4.1% | 77% | 41 | LEAN |
| Total match goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 5/61.83 | 55% | 56% | 1.79 | +2.5% | 77% | 38 | NO BET |
| Total match corners | Under 8.5 Corners | 7/52.40 | 42% | 45% | 2.21 | +8.8% | 77% | 36 | BET |
| Total match goals | Over 3.5 Goals | 11/53.20 | 31% | 34% | 2.92 | +9.7% | 77% | 32 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 7.5 Corners | 11/53.20 | 31% | 34% | 2.94 | +8.9% | 77% | 32 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 6.5 Corners | 15/44.75 | 21% | 23% | 4.33 | +9.8% | 77% | 28 | LEAN |
| Total match goals | Over 4.5 Goals | 5/16.00 | 17% | 18% | 5.43 | +10.6% | 77% | 27 | LEAN |
| Total match corners | Over 8.5 Corners | 1/21.50 | 67% | 55% | 1.83 | -18.0% | 77% | 23 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 5.5 Corners | 6/17.00 | 14% | 14% | 7.13 | -1.9% | 77% | 22 | NO BET |
| Total match goals | Over 5.5 Goals | 10/111.00 | 9% | 9% | 11.26 | -2.3% | 77% | 21 | NO BET |
| Total match goals | Over 7.5 Goals | 66/167.00 | 1% | 2% | 60.98 | +9.9% | 77% | 20 | LEAN |
| Total match goals | Over 6.5 Goals | 25/126.00 | 4% | 4% | 25.94 | +0.2% | 77% | 20 | NO BET |
| Total match corners | Under 4.5 Corners | 10/111.00 | 9% | 7% | 13.48 | -18.4% | 77% | 20 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Under 2.5 Goals | 5/61.83 | 55% | 44% | 2.27 | -19.2% | 77% | 20 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 9.5 Corners | 5/61.83 | 55% | 43% | 2.31 | -20.8% | 77% | 20 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Under 1.5 Goals | 13/53.60 | 28% | 22% | 4.63 | -22.3% | 77% | 20 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 3.5 Corners | 22/123.00 | 4% | 3% | 30.35 | -24.2% | 77% | 20 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 10.5 Corners | 13/102.30 | 43% | 32% | 3.09 | -25.5% | 77% | 20 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 11.5 Corners | 2/13.00 | 33% | 24% | 4.18 | -28.3% | 77% | 20 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 12.5 Corners | 3/14.00 | 25% | 17% | 6.02 | -33.6% | 77% | 20 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 13.5 Corners | 9/25.50 | 18% | 11% | 8.76 | -37.2% | 77% | 20 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 14.5 Corners | 13/27.50 | 13% | 7% | 13.63 | -45.0% | 77% | 20 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Under 0.5 Goals | 8/19.00 | 11% | 6% | 17.20 | -47.7% | 77% | 20 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 15.5 Corners | 9/110.00 | 10% | 5% | 21.65 | -53.8% | 77% | 20 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 16.5 Corners | 14/115.00 | 7% | 3% | 35.15 | -57.3% | 77% | 20 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 18.5 Corners | 40/141.00 | 2% | 1% | 96.62 | -57.6% | 77% | 20 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 17.5 Corners | 22/123.00 | 4% | 2% | 60.24 | -61.8% | 77% | 20 | AVOID |
| Match outcome (model price) | FUL win | — | — | 59% | 1.69 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Draw | — | — | 22% | 4.59 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | CRY win | — | — | 19% | 5.24 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score | — | — | 54% | 1.86 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | FUL -1 goal handicap | — | — | 35% | 2.84 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | CRY +1 goal handicap | — | — | 65% | 1.54 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | FUL draw no bet | — | — | 76% | 1.32 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | FUL double chance | — | — | 81% | 1.24 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | CRY double chance | — | — | 41% | 2.45 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Player fixed-odds markets
Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only
No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.
Player spread markets
Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines
| Player | Market | Sell | Buy | Model | Floor → ceiling | Edge | Prob | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GuessandCRY | Player Performance | — | — | 10.8 | 4.3 18.8 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| DisasiCRY | Player Performance | — | — | 11.2 | 6.0 17.2 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| HendersonCRY | Player Performance | — | — | 6.5 | 4.1 8.9 | — | 0% | 79% | 0 | NO BET |
| MuñozCRY | Player Performance | — | — | 9.3 | 3.7 16.5 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| RichardsCRY | Player Performance | — | — | 15.7 | 10.2 22.2 | — | 0% | 75% | 0 | NO BET |
| CanvotCRY | Player Performance | — | — | 17.7 | 12.1 24.2 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| MitchellCRY | Player Performance | — | — | 13.2 | 7.4 20.2 | — | 0% | 79% | 0 | NO BET |
| WhartonCRY | Player Performance | — | — | 17.7 | 11.3 25.2 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| YeremyCRY | Player Performance | — | — | 10.8 | 4.8 18.3 | — | 0% | 63% | 0 | NO BET |
| HughesCRY | Player Performance | — | — | 13.0 | 6.8 20.3 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| LermaCRY | Player Performance | — | — | 15.2 | 8.2 23.5 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| KamadaCRY | Player Performance | — | — | 16.6 | 10.0 24.3 | — | 0% | 63% | 0 | NO BET |
| DevennyCRY | Player Performance | — | — | 12.9 | 6.0 21.2 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| J.Rak-SakyiCRY | Player Performance | — | — | 17.6 | 10.1 26.4 | — | 0% | 50% | 0 | NO BET |
| Strand LarsenCRY | Player Performance | — | — | 6.2 | 1.2 13.3 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| NketiahCRY | Player Performance | — | — | 9.4 | 2.8 18.4 | — | 0% | 54% | 0 | NO BET |
| McNeilCRY | Player Performance | — | — | 8.7 | 3.6 15.2 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| LenoFUL | Player Performance | — | — | 5.6 | 3.3 8.0 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| LecomteFUL | Player Performance | — | — | 4.2 | 1.7 7.0 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| AndersenFUL | Player Performance | — | — | 13.2 | 7.4 19.9 | — | 0% | 72% | 0 | NO BET |
| RobinsonFUL | Player Performance | — | — | 15.1 | 8.7 22.6 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| J.CuencaFUL | Player Performance | — | — | 13.7 | 8.4 19.7 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| TeteFUL | Player Performance | — | — | 13.3 | 6.6 21.0 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| BasseyFUL | Player Performance | — | — | 14.1 | 8.4 20.6 | — | 0% | 69% | 0 | NO BET |
| CastagneFUL | Player Performance | — | — | 12.3 | 5.6 20.5 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| IwobiFUL | Player Performance | — | — | 13.6 | 8.4 20.2 | — | 0% | 69% | 0 | NO BET |
| Smith RoweFUL | Player Performance | — | — | 12.1 | 5.9 19.6 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| KevinFUL | Player Performance | — | — | 10.5 | 4.2 18.1 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| BobbFUL | Player Performance | — | — | 8.3 | 3.4 14.5 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| BergeFUL | Player Performance | — | — | 9.0 | 4.3 15.0 | — | 0% | 77% | 0 | NO BET |
| KingFUL | Player Performance | — | — | 11.7 | 4.8 20.8 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| SessegnonFUL | Player Performance | — | — | 9.5 | 3.5 16.7 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| MunizFUL | Player Performance | — | — | 5.7 | 0.3 13.3 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| MatthewsCRY | Player Performance | — | — | 6.1 | 3.2 9.2 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| GonzaloFUL | Player Performance | — | — | 10.3 | 3.6 19.8 | — | 0% | 32% | 0 | NO BET |
| PalaciosFUL | Player Performance | — | — | 10.1 | 4.8 16.9 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| CharlesFUL | Player Performance | — | — | 13.0 | 6.6 20.6 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| KhalailiCRY | Player Performance | — | — | 14.5 | 7.9 22.1 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| GuessandCRY | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.4 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| DisasiCRY | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| HendersonCRY | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 79% | 0 | NO BET |
| MuñozCRY | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.1 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| RichardsCRY | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 75% | 0 | NO BET |
| CanvotCRY | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| MitchellCRY | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 79% | 0 | NO BET |
| WhartonCRY | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| YeremyCRY | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.1 | — | 0% | 63% | 0 | NO BET |
| HughesCRY | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| LermaCRY | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.1 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| KamadaCRY | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 63% | 0 | NO BET |
| DevennyCRY | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| J.Rak-SakyiCRY | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 50% | 0 | NO BET |
| Strand LarsenCRY | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.1 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| NketiahCRY | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.4 | — | 0% | 54% | 0 | NO BET |
| McNeilCRY | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| LenoFUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| LecomteFUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| AndersenFUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.2 | — | 0% | 72% | 0 | NO BET |
| RobinsonFUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.1 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| J.CuencaFUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| TeteFUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.2 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| BasseyFUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.1 | — | 0% | 69% | 0 | NO BET |
| CastagneFUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| IwobiFUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.9 | — | 0% | 69% | 0 | NO BET |
| Smith RoweFUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| KevinFUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.1 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| BobbFUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.2 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| BergeFUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.1 | — | 0% | 77% | 0 | NO BET |
| KingFUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| SessegnonFUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| MunizFUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.9 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| MatthewsCRY | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| GonzaloFUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 32% | 0 | NO BET |
| PalaciosFUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| CharlesFUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| KhalailiCRY | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
Most likely scorelines
- 1–010.4%
- 2–09.9%
- 1–19.9%
Team news & model notes
Fulham
Cairney (i)
Crystal Palace
Chadi Riad (i), Cardines (u), Mateta (i), Uche (u), Sarr (i)
Model updated 30/08/2026, 02:25:22 · prices 29/08/2026, 14:31:21