Matches
Hull City v Aston Villa Prediction & Match Markets
Sat 5 Sept, 16:30 · Gameweek 3 · Hull City (home)
Predicted score
1–0
14% likely
Expected goals
1.42 – 0.95
Total 2.37
HUL win
48%
Draw 27%
AVL win
25%
BTTS 45%
Lineup confidence
79%
20,000 simulations
Minimum odds 1.50
Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.
On
Three best fixed-odds bets
Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated
#1 · Game
69Under 10.5 Corners
Total match corners
Model 76% vs market 65%
Price 8/15EV +16.9%Conf 49%
#2 · Game
38Under 2.5 Goals
Total match goals
Model 58% vs market 55%
Price 5/6EV +6.7%Conf 49%
Three best spread bets
One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently
#1 · Game
41SELL Total match corners at 9.6
Total match corners
Model 8.3 (range 4.0–13.0)
Edge 1.30Conf 49%
#2 · Game
31SELL Total match goals at 2.65
Total match goals
Model 2.37 (range 0.00–5.00)
Edge 0.28Conf 49%
Predicted line-ups
Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model
Hull City
5-4-1 · High confidence
- 1TzolakisGKP
- 2EganDEF
- 3AjayiDEF
- 4GilesDEF
- 5MendyDEF
- 6CoyleDEF
- 7BelloumiMID
- 8SlaterMID
- 9StroudMID
- 10MoritaMID
- 11McBurnieFWD
Bench: Millar, Ömür, Akintola, Hjertø-Dahl
Out: Crooks, Butland, Hughes, Zambrano, Jacob, Matazo, Gyabi, Gelhardt
Full Hull City predicted XI →Aston Villa
4-5-1 · High confidence
- 1SuzukiGKP
- 2CashDEF
- 3PauDEF
- 4MaatsenDEF
- 5LindelöfDEF
- 6BuendíaMID
- 7McGinnMID
- 8KamaraMID
- 9George HemmingsMID
- 10GoretzkaMID
- 11N.JacksonFWD
Bench: Watkins, Martinez, Barkley, Wan-Bissaka
Doubts: Abraham
Out: Madjo, Manzambi, Bailey, Onana, Gomes
Full Aston Villa predicted XI →Match spread markets
Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line
| Market | Sell | Buy | Model | Most likely | Floor → ceiling | Edge | Prob | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match corners | 9.6 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 4.0 13.0 | 1.3 | 66% | 49% | 41 | SELL |
| Total match goals | 2.65 | 2.85 | 2.37 | 2.00 | 0.0 5.0 | 0.28 | 58% | 49% | 31 | SELL |
| Total booking points | 38.00 | 42.00 | 39.01 | 31.80 | 10.6 63.6 | 0.00 | 51% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| Total match shots | — | — | 24.1 | 23.0 | 16.0 33.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots on target | — | — | 8.3 | 7.0 | 4.0 13.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match fouls | — | — | 20.1 | 18.0 | 13.0 28.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Goal supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.47 | 0.00 | -1.0 2.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Shot supremacy (home) | — | — | 1.7 | 1.0 | -5.0 8.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| SOT supremacy (home) | — | — | 1.3 | 1.0 | -2.0 5.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Corner supremacy (home) | — | — | -0.8 | -1.0 | -5.0 3.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.58 | 0.00 | -2.0 3.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Match fixed-odds markets
Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only
| Market | Selection | Price | Implied | Model | Fair odds | EV | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match corners | Under 10.5 Corners | 8/151.53 | 65% | 76% | 1.31 | +16.9% | 49% | 69 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 9.5 Corners | 5/61.83 | 55% | 66% | 1.51 | +21.7% | 49% | 61 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 8.5 Corners | 7/52.40 | 42% | 55% | 1.81 | +32.8% | 49% | 52 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 7.5 Corners | 11/53.20 | 31% | 43% | 2.33 | +37.6% | 49% | 46 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 6.5 Corners | 15/44.75 | 21% | 31% | 3.24 | +46.7% | 49% | 39 | BET |
| Total match goals | Under 2.5 Goals | 5/61.83 | 55% | 58% | 1.72 | +6.7% | 49% | 38 | LEAN |
| Total match goals | Under 1.5 Goals | 13/53.60 | 28% | 33% | 3.06 | +17.6% | 49% | 29 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 5.5 Corners | 6/17.00 | 14% | 20% | 5.05 | +38.7% | 49% | 28 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 4.5 Corners | 10/111.00 | 9% | 11% | 9.04 | +21.7% | 49% | 19 | LEAN |
| Total match corners | Under 3.5 Corners | 22/123.00 | 4% | 5% | 19.76 | +16.4% | 49% | 15 | LEAN |
| Total match goals | Under 0.5 Goals | 8/19.00 | 11% | 10% | 9.80 | -8.2% | 49% | 12 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 5/61.83 | 55% | 42% | 2.39 | -23.4% | 49% | 12 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 8.5 Corners | 1/21.50 | 67% | 45% | 2.24 | -33.0% | 49% | 12 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 3.5 Goals | 2/13.00 | 33% | 22% | 4.54 | -34.0% | 49% | 12 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 9.5 Corners | 5/61.83 | 55% | 34% | 2.98 | -38.4% | 49% | 12 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 4.5 Goals | 5/16.00 | 17% | 10% | 9.80 | -38.8% | 49% | 12 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 10.5 Corners | 13/102.30 | 43% | 24% | 4.21 | -45.4% | 49% | 12 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 11.5 Corners | 2/13.00 | 33% | 16% | 6.17 | -51.3% | 49% | 12 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 5.5 Goals | 10/111.00 | 9% | 4% | 25.06 | -56.1% | 49% | 12 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 12.5 Corners | 3/14.00 | 25% | 10% | 9.55 | -58.1% | 49% | 12 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 6.5 Goals | 25/126.00 | 4% | 1% | 68.97 | -62.3% | 49% | 12 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 13.5 Corners | 9/25.50 | 18% | 7% | 15.11 | -63.6% | 49% | 12 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 7.5 Goals | 66/167.00 | 1% | 1% | 188.68 | -64.5% | 49% | 12 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 14.5 Corners | 13/27.50 | 13% | 4% | 24.63 | -69.6% | 49% | 12 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 15.5 Corners | 9/110.00 | 10% | 2% | 42.02 | -76.2% | 49% | 12 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 16.5 Corners | 14/115.00 | 7% | 1% | 74.63 | -79.9% | 49% | 12 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 17.5 Corners | 22/123.00 | 4% | 1% | 132.45 | -82.6% | 49% | 12 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 18.5 Corners | 40/141.00 | 2% | 0% | 263.16 | -84.4% | 49% | 12 | AVOID |
| Match outcome (model price) | HUL win | — | — | 48% | 2.09 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Draw | — | — | 27% | 3.75 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | AVL win | — | — | 25% | 3.94 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score | — | — | 45% | 2.20 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | HUL -1 goal handicap | — | — | 23% | 4.26 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | AVL +1 goal handicap | — | — | 77% | 1.31 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | HUL draw no bet | — | — | 65% | 1.53 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | HUL double chance | — | — | 75% | 1.34 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | AVL double chance | — | — | 52% | 1.92 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Player fixed-odds markets
Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only
No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.
Player spread markets
Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines
| Player | Market | Sell | Buy | Model | Floor → ceiling | Edge | Prob | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MartinezAVL | Player Performance | — | — | 8.0 | 4.8 11.0 | — | 0% | 70% | 0 | NO BET |
| M.BizotAVL | Player Performance | — | — | 7.5 | 4.9 10.2 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| CashAVL | Player Performance | — | — | 13.6 | 7.7 20.5 | — | 0% | 79% | 0 | NO BET |
| MingsAVL | Player Performance | — | — | 14.7 | 9.1 20.8 | — | 0% | 54% | 0 | NO BET |
| PauAVL | Player Performance | — | — | 11.5 | 6.9 16.8 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| BogardeAVL | Player Performance | — | — | 12.3 | 6.7 18.9 | — | 0% | 58% | 0 | NO BET |
| MaatsenAVL | Player Performance | — | — | 14.6 | 8.6 21.5 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| LindelöfAVL | Player Performance | — | — | 14.8 | 10.5 19.7 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| BuendíaAVL | Player Performance | — | — | 17.0 | 9.2 26.2 | — | 0% | 65% | 0 | NO BET |
| McGinnAVL | Player Performance | — | — | 12.2 | 6.3 19.5 | — | 0% | 74% | 0 | NO BET |
| BarkleyAVL | Player Performance | — | — | 11.6 | 5.8 19.1 | — | 0% | 53% | 0 | NO BET |
| KamaraAVL | Player Performance | — | — | 18.1 | 11.8 25.6 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| WatkinsAVL | Player Performance | — | — | 10.1 | 2.8 19.7 | — | 0% | 68% | 0 | NO BET |
| GarnachoAVL | Player Performance | — | — | 13.2 | 6.9 20.8 | — | 0% | 52% | 0 | NO BET |
| PhillipsHUL | Player Performance | — | — | 3.8 | 1.4 6.6 | — | 0% | 43% | 0 | NO BET |
| AjayiHUL | Player Performance | — | — | 11.1 | 4.6 20.1 | — | 0% | 78% | 0 | NO BET |
| CoyleHUL | Player Performance | — | — | 8.7 | 3.9 14.7 | — | 0% | 42% | 0 | NO BET |
| McCarthyHUL | Player Performance | — | — | 11.6 | 5.6 18.6 | — | 0% | 40% | 0 | NO BET |
| BelloumiHUL | Player Performance | — | — | 13.3 | 7.1 20.9 | — | 0% | 35% | 0 | NO BET |
| MillarHUL | Player Performance | — | — | 12.4 | 5.7 20.4 | — | 0% | 32% | 0 | NO BET |
| DowellHUL | Player Performance | — | — | 11.2 | 5.4 18.2 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| CrooksHUL | Player Performance | — | — | 12.6 | 6.5 20.0 | — | 0% | 33% | 0 | NO BET |
| SlaterHUL | Player Performance | — | — | 12.8 | 6.5 20.5 | — | 0% | 38% | 0 | NO BET |
| ÖmürHUL | Player Performance | — | — | 12.4 | 6.2 20.1 | — | 0% | 38% | 0 | NO BET |
| McBurnieHUL | Player Performance | — | — | 9.4 | 3.1 18.0 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| AkintolaHUL | Player Performance | — | — | 12.4 | 6.1 20.0 | — | 0% | 42% | 0 | NO BET |
| MoritaHUL | Player Performance | — | — | 12.4 | 6.0 20.1 | — | 0% | 46% | 0 | NO BET |
| TzolakisHUL | Player Performance | — | — | 5.4 | 2.7 8.5 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| Hjertø-DahlHUL | Player Performance | — | — | 12.5 | 6.1 20.2 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| StroudHUL | Player Performance | — | — | 10.0 | 4.6 16.8 | — | 0% | 50% | 0 | NO BET |
| HerringtonHUL | Player Performance | — | — | 11.9 | 5.9 18.9 | — | 0% | 41% | 0 | NO BET |
| MendyHUL | Player Performance | — | — | 9.8 | 4.2 17.0 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| Gourna-DouathHUL | Player Performance | — | — | 12.5 | 6.1 20.3 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| RuggeriAVL | Player Performance | — | — | 18.9 | 11.0 27.5 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| SuzukiAVL | Player Performance | — | — | 6.2 | 3.3 9.4 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| LynchAVL | Player Performance | — | — | 17.6 | 10.1 26.5 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| Wan-BissakaAVL | Player Performance | — | — | 9.9 | 4.7 15.9 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| GoretzkaAVL | Player Performance | — | — | 17.4 | 9.9 26.3 | — | 0% | 46% | 0 | NO BET |
| PhillipsHUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 43% | 0 | NO BET |
| CoyleHUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 42% | 0 | NO BET |
| McCarthyHUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 40% | 0 | NO BET |
| BelloumiHUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 35% | 0 | NO BET |
| MillarHUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 32% | 0 | NO BET |
| CrooksHUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 33% | 0 | NO BET |
| SlaterHUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 38% | 0 | NO BET |
| ÖmürHUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 38% | 0 | NO BET |
| AkintolaHUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 42% | 0 | NO BET |
| MoritaHUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 46% | 0 | NO BET |
| TzolakisHUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| Hjertø-DahlHUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| StroudHUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 50% | 0 | NO BET |
| HerringtonHUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 41% | 0 | NO BET |
| MendyHUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| Gourna-DouathHUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| DowellHUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| McBurnieHUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.3 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| AjayiHUL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.9 | — | 0% | 78% | 0 | NO BET |
| MingsAVL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 54% | 0 | NO BET |
| LindelöfAVL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.1 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| BuendíaAVL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.3 | — | 0% | 65% | 0 | NO BET |
| BarkleyAVL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.3 | — | 0% | 53% | 0 | NO BET |
| Wan-BissakaAVL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| GarnachoAVL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 52% | 0 | NO BET |
| RuggeriAVL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| SuzukiAVL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| LynchAVL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| GoretzkaAVL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 46% | 0 | NO BET |
| McGinnAVL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 74% | 0 | NO BET |
| PauAVL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.1 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| WatkinsAVL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.8 | 0.0 2.1 | — | 0% | 68% | 0 | NO BET |
| M.BizotAVL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| MaatsenAVL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.8 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| MartinezAVL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 70% | 0 | NO BET |
| BogardeAVL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 58% | 0 | NO BET |
| CashAVL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.9 | — | 0% | 79% | 0 | NO BET |
| KamaraAVL | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.6%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–010.2%
Team news & model notes
Hull City
Burstow (u)
Aston Villa
Digne (u), Onana (i), Gomes (s), Nedeljkovic (u), Abraham (d)
Model updated 30/08/2026, 02:26:25 · prices 29/08/2026, 14:31:21