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Ipswich Town v Liverpool Prediction & Match Markets

Fri 4 Sept, 19:00 · Gameweek 3 · Ipswich Town (home)

Predicted score

1–1

11% likely

Expected goals
1.46 – 1.42
Total 2.89
IPS win
39%
Draw 25%
LIV win
37%
BTTS 57%
Lineup confidence
79%
20,000 simulations

Minimum odds 1.50

Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.

On

Three best fixed-odds bets

Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated

#1 · Game
71

Under 10.5 Corners

Total match corners

Model 78% vs market 65%

Price 8/15EV +19.7%Conf 51%
#2 · Game
26

Under 2.5 Goals

Total match goals

Model 46% vs market 43%

Price 13/10EV +4.7%Conf 51%

Three best spread bets

One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently

#1 · Game
51

SELL Total booking points at 38.00

Total booking points

Model 30.63 (range 10.60–53.00)

Edge 7.37Conf 51%
#2 · Game
45

SELL Total match corners at 9.6

Total match corners

Model 8.2 (range 4.0–12.0)

Edge 1.40Conf 51%
#3 · Game
34

SELL Total match goals at 3.10

Total match goals

Model 2.89 (range 1.00–5.00)

Edge 0.21Conf 51%

Predicted line-ups

Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model

Ipswich Town

4-5-1 · High confidence
  1. 1ScherpenGKP
  2. 2DiopDEF
  3. 3O'SheaDEF
  4. 4DavisDEF
  5. 5GreavesDEF
  6. 6LukićMID
  7. 7NúñezMID
  8. 8FatawuMID
  9. 9MaedaMID
  10. 10EncisoMID
  11. 11EmersonnFWD

Bench: Clarke, Ogbene, Akpom, Mehmeti

Doubts: Florentino, Matusiwa

Out: Philogene, Taylor

Full Ipswich Town predicted XI →

Liverpool

4-5-1 · High confidence
  1. 1A.BeckerGKP
  2. 2VirgilDEF
  3. 3FrimpongDEF
  4. 4KerkezDEF
  5. 5JacquetDEF
  6. 6SzoboszlaiMID
  7. 7WirtzMID
  8. 8GakpoMID
  9. 9NgumohaMID
  10. 10GravenberchMID
  11. 11IsakFWD

Bench: Mac Allister, Munoz, Araujo, Mamardashvili

Out: Chiesa, Ekitiké, Gomez, Bradley, Leoni, Danns

Full Liverpool predicted XI →

Match spread markets

Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line

MarketSellBuyModelMost likelyFloor → ceilingEdgeProbConfOppSignal
Total booking points38.0042.0030.6321.20
10.6
53.0
7.3767%51%51SELL
Total match corners9.610.18.27.0
4.0
12.0
1.469%51%45SELL
Total match goals3.103.302.892.00
1.0
5.0
0.2167%51%34SELL
Total match shots——22.421.0
15.0
31.0
——51%0NO PRICE
Total match shots on target——7.16.0
4.0
11.0
——51%0NO PRICE
Total match fouls——20.818.0
13.0
29.0
——51%0NO PRICE
Goal supremacy (home)——0.040.00
-2.0
2.0
——51%0NO PRICE
Shot supremacy (home)——-3.8-3.0
-10.0
3.0
——51%0NO PRICE
SOT supremacy (home)——-0.8-1.0
-4.0
3.0
——51%0NO PRICE
Corner supremacy (home)——-2.1-2.0
-6.0
2.0
——51%0NO PRICE
Card supremacy (home)——-0.740.00
-3.0
1.0
——51%0NO PRICE

Match fixed-odds markets

Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only

MarketSelectionPriceImpliedModelFair oddsEVConfOppSignal
Total match cornersUnder 10.5 Corners8/151.5365%78%1.28+19.7%51%71BET
Total match cornersUnder 9.5 Corners5/61.8355%69%1.45+26.2%51%64BET
Total match cornersUnder 8.5 Corners7/52.4042%57%1.74+37.8%51%54BET
Total match cornersUnder 7.5 Corners11/53.2031%45%2.22+43.9%51%49BET
Total match cornersUnder 6.5 Corners15/44.7521%32%3.08+54.1%51%44BET
Total match goalsUnder 3.5 Goals1/21.5067%67%1.48+1.2%51%41NO BET
Total match cornersUnder 5.5 Corners6/17.0014%21%4.83+44.9%51%31BET
Total match goalsUnder 2.5 Goals13/102.3043%46%2.20+4.7%51%26LEAN
Total match goalsUnder 1.5 Goals15/44.7521%23%4.32+10.0%51%22LEAN
Total match cornersUnder 4.5 Corners10/111.009%12%8.54+28.8%51%21LEAN
Total match cornersUnder 3.5 Corners22/123.004%5%18.21+26.3%51%16LEAN
Total match goalsOver 2.5 Goals8/151.5365%54%1.84-16.5%51%16AVOID
Total match goalsOver 3.5 Goals7/52.4042%33%3.07-21.9%51%13AVOID
Total match goalsUnder 0.5 Goals10/111.009%6%15.76-30.2%51%13AVOID
Total match goalsOver 4.5 Goals3/14.0025%17%5.75-30.5%51%13AVOID
Total match cornersOver 8.5 Corners1/21.5067%43%2.35-36.1%51%13AVOID
Total match goalsOver 5.5 Goals13/27.5013%8%12.04-37.7%51%13AVOID
Total match cornersOver 9.5 Corners5/61.8355%31%3.21-42.9%51%13AVOID
Total match cornersOver 10.5 Corners13/102.3043%22%4.57-49.6%51%13AVOID
Total match goalsOver 6.5 Goals12/113.008%4%28.33-54.1%51%13AVOID
Total match cornersOver 11.5 Corners2/13.0033%15%6.85-56.2%51%13AVOID
Total match cornersOver 12.5 Corners3/14.0025%10%10.47-61.8%51%13AVOID
Total match goalsOver 7.5 Goals28/129.003%1%83.68-65.3%51%13AVOID
Total match cornersOver 13.5 Corners9/25.5018%6%16.60-66.9%51%13AVOID
Total match goalsOver 8.5 Goals66/167.001%0%227.27-70.5%51%13AVOID
Total match cornersOver 14.5 Corners13/27.5013%4%26.95-72.2%51%13AVOID
Total match cornersOver 15.5 Corners9/110.0010%2%47.28-78.9%51%13AVOID
Total match cornersOver 16.5 Corners14/115.007%1%86.58-82.7%51%13AVOID
Total match cornersOver 17.5 Corners22/123.004%1%168.07-86.3%51%13AVOID
Total match cornersOver 18.5 Corners40/141.002%0%370.37-88.9%51%13AVOID
Match outcome (model price)IPS win——39%2.59—51%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)Draw——25%4.02—51%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)LIV win——37%2.74—51%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)Both teams to score——57%1.75—51%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)IPS -1 goal handicap——18%5.57—51%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)LIV +1 goal handicap——82%1.22—51%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)IPS draw no bet——51%1.95—51%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)IPS double chance——63%1.58—51%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)LIV double chance——61%1.63—51%0NO PRICE

Player fixed-odds markets

Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only

No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.

Player spread markets

Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines

PlayerMarketSellBuyModelFloor → ceilingEdgeProbConfOppSignal
DiopIPSPlayer Performance——9.9
5.0
15.7
—0%57%0NO BET
LukićIPSPlayer Performance——12.2
5.4
20.2
—0%71%0NO BET
WaltonIPSPlayer Performance——3.8
1.4
6.4
—0%53%0NO BET
PalmerIPSPlayer Performance——3.8
1.4
6.3
—0%51%0NO BET
KipréIPSPlayer Performance——11.9
5.8
19.2
—0%46%0NO BET
O'SheaIPSPlayer Performance——13.4
7.5
20.2
—0%79%0NO BET
DavisIPSPlayer Performance——12.2
6.8
18.5
—0%74%0NO BET
GreavesIPSPlayer Performance——12.8
7.2
19.2
—0%70%0NO BET
JohnsonIPSPlayer Performance——10.1
4.9
16.3
—0%59%0NO BET
FurlongIPSPlayer Performance——10.1
4.9
16.3
—0%69%0NO BET
NúñezIPSPlayer Performance——10.3
4.8
17.2
—0%34%0NO BET
ClarkeIPSPlayer Performance——18.5
8.1
32.1
—0%51%0NO BET
FatawuIPSPlayer Performance——11.3
5.4
18.7
—0%49%0NO BET
EmersonnIPSPlayer Performance——8.1
2.0
16.8
—0%31%0NO BET
McAteerIPSPlayer Performance——13.0
6.6
20.5
—0%48%0NO BET
MehmetiIPSPlayer Performance——13.2
6.5
21.2
—0%48%0NO BET
A.BeckerLIVPlayer Performance——6.8
4.3
9.1
—0%64%0NO BET
MamardashviliLIVPlayer Performance——6.1
3.3
9.0
—0%49%0NO BET
VirgilLIVPlayer Performance——19.5
13.7
26.7
—0%79%0NO BET
FrimpongLIVPlayer Performance——12.3
7.1
18.5
—0%51%0NO BET
KerkezLIVPlayer Performance——13.2
7.7
19.7
—0%67%0NO BET
LuckyLIVPlayer Performance——15.6
9.0
23.1
—0%49%0NO BET
JacquetLIVPlayer Performance——11.9
6.5
18.4
—0%37%0NO BET
TsimikasLIVPlayer Performance——15.5
8.9
23.0
—0%50%0NO BET
WirtzLIVPlayer Performance——12.6
6.7
20.2
—0%68%0NO BET
GakpoLIVPlayer Performance——15.2
6.9
25.6
—0%67%0NO BET
SzoboszlaiLIVPlayer Performance——24.1
15.4
35.1
—0%77%0NO BET
NgumohaLIVPlayer Performance——11.2
5.4
18.5
—0%50%0NO BET
GravenberchLIVPlayer Performance——15.0
8.3
23.4
—0%69%0NO BET
Mac AllisterLIVPlayer Performance——16.5
9.2
24.6
—0%64%0NO BET
MunozLIVPlayer Performance——17.9
10.1
27.3
—0%46%0NO BET
McConnellLIVPlayer Performance——17.5
10.0
26.4
—0%51%0NO BET
IsakLIVPlayer Performance——11.6
4.0
21.9
—0%44%0NO BET
KoumasLIVPlayer Performance——17.2
9.7
25.8
—0%48%0NO BET
MaedaIPSPlayer Performance——11.9
5.5
19.8
—0%51%0NO BET
FlorentinoIPSPlayer Performance——14.5
7.0
23.2
—0%58%0NO BET
AraujoLIVPlayer Performance——16.4
9.6
24.1
—0%47%0NO BET
EncisoIPSPlayer Performance——10.6
4.8
17.9
—0%48%0NO BET
DiopIPSShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.2
—0%57%0NO BET
LukićIPSShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.5
—0%71%0NO BET
WaltonIPSShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.0
—0%53%0NO BET
PalmerIPSShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.0
—0%51%0NO BET
KipréIPSShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.4
—0%46%0NO BET
O'SheaIPSShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.4
—0%79%0NO BET
DavisIPSShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.3
—0%74%0NO BET
GreavesIPSShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.3
—0%70%0NO BET
JohnsonIPSShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.3
—0%59%0NO BET
FurlongIPSShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.3
—0%69%0NO BET
NúñezIPSShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.5
—0%34%0NO BET
ClarkeIPSShots on Target——0.3
0.0
1.2
—0%51%0NO BET
FatawuIPSShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.4
—0%49%0NO BET
EmersonnIPSShots on Target——0.3
0.0
1.2
—0%31%0NO BET
McAteerIPSShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.4
—0%48%0NO BET
MehmetiIPSShots on Target——0.2
0.0
0.8
—0%48%0NO BET
A.BeckerLIVShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.0
—0%64%0NO BET
MamardashviliLIVShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.0
—0%49%0NO BET
VirgilLIVShots on Target——0.3
0.0
1.1
—0%79%0NO BET
FrimpongLIVShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.5
—0%51%0NO BET
KerkezLIVShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.5
—0%67%0NO BET
LuckyLIVShots on Target——0.2
0.0
0.8
—0%49%0NO BET
JacquetLIVShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.5
—0%37%0NO BET
TsimikasLIVShots on Target——0.2
0.0
0.8
—0%50%0NO BET
WirtzLIVShots on Target——0.3
0.0
1.2
—0%68%0NO BET
GakpoLIVShots on Target——0.5
0.0
1.5
—0%67%0NO BET
SzoboszlaiLIVShots on Target——0.5
0.0
1.5
—0%77%0NO BET
NgumohaLIVShots on Target——0.3
0.0
1.3
—0%50%0NO BET
GravenberchLIVShots on Target——0.2
0.0
0.9
—0%69%0NO BET
Mac AllisterLIVShots on Target——0.3
0.0
1.2
—0%64%0NO BET
MunozLIVShots on Target——0.3
0.0
1.2
—0%46%0NO BET
McConnellLIVShots on Target——0.3
0.0
1.2
—0%51%0NO BET
IsakLIVShots on Target——0.7
0.0
2.0
—0%44%0NO BET
KoumasLIVShots on Target——0.3
0.0
1.2
—0%48%0NO BET
MaedaIPSShots on Target——0.2
0.0
0.8
—0%51%0NO BET
FlorentinoIPSShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.1
—0%58%0NO BET
AraujoLIVShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.7
—0%47%0NO BET
EncisoIPSShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.6
—0%48%0NO BET

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.2%
  • 2–18.5%
  • 0–18.4%

Team news & model notes

Ipswich Town

Szmodics (u), Burns (u), Hirst (u), Al-Hamadi (u), Philogene (i), Taylor (i)

Liverpool

Jaros (i), Chiesa (i), C.Jones (u), Gomez (i), Bradley (i), Ekitiké (i)

Model updated 30/08/2026, 02:25:43 · prices 29/08/2026, 14:31:21

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