Matches
Leeds v Brentford Prediction & Match Markets
Sun 30 Aug, 13:00 · Gameweek 2 · Leeds (home)
Predicted score
0–0
24% likely
Expected goals
0.79 – 0.65
Total 1.44
LEE win
35%
Draw 38%
BRE win
27%
BTTS 26%
Lineup confidence
73%
20,000 simulations
Minimum odds 1.50
Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.
On
Three best fixed-odds bets
Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated
#1 · Player
100Vitaly Janelt - 55+
Janelt · Player Attempted Passes
Model 61% vs market 38% · projection 56.67
Price 13/8EV +58.9%Conf 69%
#2 · Game
78Under 2.5 Goals
Total match goals
Model 82% vs market 53%
Price 20/23EV +53.4%Conf 73%
#3 · Game
74Under 10.5 Corners
Total match corners
Model 74% vs market 58%
Price 8/11EV +28.5%Conf 73%
Three best spread bets
One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently
#1 · Game
78SELL Total match goals at 2.60
Total match goals
Model 1.44 (range 0.00–3.00)
Edge 1.16Conf 73%
#2 · Game
57SELL Total match corners at 10.1
Total match corners
Model 8.5 (range 4.0–13.0)
Edge 1.60Conf 73%
#3 · Game
50SELL Total booking points at 36.00
Total booking points
Model 30.74 (range 10.60–53.00)
Edge 5.26Conf 73%
Predicted line-ups
Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model
Leeds
5-4-1 · High confidence
- 1TraffordGKP
- 2BijolDEF
- 3RodonDEF
- 4BogleDEF
- 5JustinDEF
- 6MuharemovićDEF
- 7AmpaduMID
- 8WilsonMID
- 9StachMID
- 10AaronsonMID
- 11Calvert-LewinFWD
Bench: Okafor, Perri, Tanaka, Nmecha
Doubts: Gudmundsson, Gnonto, Gruev
Out: Mateo Joseph
Full Leeds predicted XI →Brentford
4-5-1 · High confidence
- 1KelleherGKP
- 2KayodeDEF
- 3CollinsDEF
- 4AjerDEF
- 5DioufDEF
- 6Lewis-PotterMID
- 7SchadeMID
- 8O.DangoMID
- 9JensenMID
- 10JaneltMID
- 11ThiagoFWD
Bench: M.Sangaré, Anthony, Damsgaard, Henry
Doubts: Yarmoliuk
Out: Van den Berg, Milambo
Full Brentford predicted XI →Match spread markets
Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line
| Market | Sell | Buy | Model | Most likely | Floor → ceiling | Edge | Prob | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match goals | 2.60 | 2.80 | 1.44 | 1.00 | 0.0 3.0 | 1.16 | 82% | 73% | 78 | SELL |
| Total match corners | 10.1 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 4.0 13.0 | 1.6 | 74% | 73% | 57 | SELL |
| Total booking points | 36.00 | 40.00 | 30.74 | 21.20 | 10.6 53.0 | 5.26 | 67% | 73% | 50 | SELL |
| Total match shots | — | — | 20.0 | 19.0 | 13.0 28.0 | — | — | 73% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots on target | — | — | 5.7 | 5.0 | 3.0 9.0 | — | — | 73% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match fouls | — | — | 20.8 | 19.0 | 13.0 29.0 | — | — | 73% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Goal supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.14 | 0.00 | -1.0 2.0 | — | — | 73% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Shot supremacy (home) | — | — | 3.1 | 3.0 | -3.0 9.0 | — | — | 73% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| SOT supremacy (home) | — | — | 1.3 | 1.0 | -2.0 4.0 | — | — | 73% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Corner supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.7 | 1.0 | -3.0 5.0 | — | — | 73% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card supremacy (home) | — | — | -0.71 | -1.00 | -3.0 1.0 | — | — | 73% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Match fixed-odds markets
Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only
| Market | Selection | Price | Implied | Model | Fair odds | EV | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match goals | Under 2.5 Goals | 20/231.87 | 53% | 82% | 1.22 | +53.4% | 73% | 78 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 10.5 Corners | 8/111.73 | 58% | 74% | 1.34 | +28.5% | 73% | 74 | BET |
| Total match cards | Under 3.5 Cards | 5/61.83 | 55% | 67% | 1.48 | +23.5% | 73% | 68 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 9.5 Corners | 6/52.20 | 45% | 65% | 1.54 | +42.6% | 73% | 66 | BET |
| Total match goals | Under 1.5 Goals | 5/23.50 | 29% | 59% | 1.70 | +105.4% | 73% | 61 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 8.5 Corners | 7/42.75 | 36% | 53% | 1.87 | +46.8% | 73% | 57 | BET |
| Total match goals | Under 0.5 Goals | 9/110.00 | 10% | 24% | 4.10 | +144.0% | 73% | 54 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 7.5 Corners | 11/43.75 | 27% | 41% | 2.43 | +54.5% | 73% | 54 | BET |
| Total match cards | Under 2.5 Cards | 2/13.00 | 33% | 46% | 2.18 | +37.7% | 73% | 54 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 6.5 Corners | 5/16.00 | 17% | 29% | 3.44 | +74.3% | 73% | 50 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 5.5 Corners | 8/19.00 | 11% | 18% | 5.46 | +64.8% | 73% | 37 | BET |
| Total match cards | Under 1.5 Cards | 5/16.00 | 17% | 23% | 4.31 | +39.4% | 73% | 37 | BET |
| Total match corners | Under 4.5 Corners | 16/117.00 | 6% | 10% | 9.82 | +73.1% | 73% | 30 | LEAN |
| Total match corners | Under 3.5 Corners | 33/134.00 | 3% | 5% | 21.86 | +55.6% | 73% | 23 | LEAN |
| Total match cards | Under 0.5 Cards | 16/117.00 | 6% | 6% | 16.12 | +5.5% | 73% | 20 | LEAN |
| Total match cards | Over 3.5 Cards | 5/61.83 | 55% | 33% | 3.06 | -40.2% | 73% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 9.5 Corners | 4/61.67 | 60% | 35% | 2.84 | -41.4% | 73% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 10.5 Corners | 21/202.05 | 49% | 26% | 3.91 | -47.5% | 73% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 11.5 Corners | 7/42.75 | 36% | 18% | 5.69 | -51.7% | 73% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match cards | Over 4.5 Cards | 17/102.70 | 37% | 18% | 5.62 | -51.9% | 73% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 12.5 Corners | 5/23.50 | 29% | 12% | 8.56 | -59.1% | 73% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match cards | Over 5.5 Cards | 7/24.50 | 22% | 8% | 11.81 | -61.9% | 73% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 13.5 Corners | 15/44.75 | 21% | 7% | 13.54 | -64.9% | 73% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 20/231.87 | 53% | 18% | 5.57 | -66.4% | 73% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 14.5 Corners | 11/26.50 | 15% | 4% | 22.78 | -71.5% | 73% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match cards | Over 6.5 Cards | 13/27.50 | 13% | 4% | 27.59 | -72.8% | 73% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 15.5 Corners | 8/19.00 | 11% | 3% | 36.36 | -75.3% | 73% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 16.5 Corners | 12/113.00 | 8% | 2% | 60.61 | -78.6% | 73% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 3.5 Goals | 11/53.20 | 31% | 6% | 16.06 | -80.1% | 73% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 17.5 Corners | 18/119.00 | 5% | 1% | 115.61 | -83.6% | 73% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match cards | Over 7.5 Cards | 10/111.00 | 9% | 1% | 69.69 | -84.2% | 73% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 18.5 Corners | 28/129.00 | 3% | 0% | 208.33 | -86.1% | 73% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match cards | Over 8.5 Cards | 22/123.00 | 4% | 1% | 173.91 | -86.8% | 73% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 4.5 Goals | 11/26.50 | 15% | 2% | 50.51 | -87.1% | 73% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 5.5 Goals | 12/113.00 | 8% | 1% | 200.00 | -93.5% | 73% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 6.5 Goals | 28/129.00 | 3% | 0% | 952.38 | -97.0% | 73% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 7.5 Goals | 80/181.00 | 1% | 0% | 5000.00 | -98.4% | 73% | 19 | AVOID |
| Match outcome (model price) | LEE win | — | — | 35% | 2.85 | — | 73% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Draw | — | — | 38% | 2.66 | — | 73% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BRE win | — | — | 27% | 3.67 | — | 73% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score | — | — | 26% | 3.88 | — | 73% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LEE -1 goal handicap | — | — | 11% | 8.79 | — | 73% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BRE +1 goal handicap | — | — | 89% | 1.13 | — | 73% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LEE draw no bet | — | — | 56% | 1.78 | — | 73% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LEE double chance | — | — | 73% | 1.37 | — | 73% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BRE double chance | — | — | 65% | 1.54 | — | 73% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Player fixed-odds markets
Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only
| Player | Market | Selection | Price | Implied | Model | Projection | EV | Conf | Score | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JaneltBRE | Player Attempted Passes | Vitaly Janelt - 55+ | 13/82.63 | 38% | 61% | 56.67 | +58.9% | 69% | 100 | LEAN |
| JaneltBRE | Player Attempted Passes | Vitaly Janelt - 60+ | 10/34.33 | 23% | 37% | 56.67 | +58.8% | 69% | 100 | LEAN |
| JaneltBRE | Player Attempted Passes | Vitaly Janelt - 50+ | 87/1001.87 | 54% | 80% | 56.67 | +50.2% | 69% | 100 | LEAN |
| CollinsBRE | Player Attempted Passes | Nathan Collins - 60+ | 4/51.80 | 56% | 59% | 61.61 | +6.9% | 76% | 49 | BET |
| HickeyBRE | Player Attempted Passes | Aaron Hickey - 45+ | 1/12.00 | 50% | 51% | 44.24 | +2.1% | 65% | 26 | LEAN |
Player spread markets
Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines
| Player | Market | Sell | Buy | Model | Floor → ceiling | Edge | Prob | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KelleherBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 7.7 | 5.1 10.2 | — | 0% | 80% | 0 | NO BET |
| CollinsBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 16.3 | 10.7 23.3 | — | 0% | 75% | 0 | NO BET |
| Lewis-PotterBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 14.3 | 7.0 24.4 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| AjerBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 12.0 | 6.4 18.6 | — | 0% | 65% | 0 | NO BET |
| KayodeBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 10.1 | 4.3 18.5 | — | 0% | 79% | 0 | NO BET |
| HenryBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 8.9 | 4.2 14.5 | — | 0% | 63% | 0 | NO BET |
| HickeyBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 13.1 | 7.0 20.0 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| Ji-sooBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 15.4 | 8.9 22.7 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| SchadeBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 11.4 | 4.3 20.4 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| O.DangoBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 8.6 | 2.8 16.0 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| DamsgaardBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 16.2 | 8.7 24.9 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| JensenBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 12.3 | 6.2 20.3 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| JaneltBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 19.2 | 11.3 29.2 | — | 0% | 65% | 0 | NO BET |
| YarmoliukBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 14.5 | 7.9 22.3 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| AnthonyBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 13.0 | 6.0 21.8 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| ThiagoBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 10.8 | 2.9 21.3 | — | 0% | 75% | 0 | NO BET |
| WilsonBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 9.1 | 2.0 18.7 | — | 0% | 63% | 0 | NO BET |
| WilsonLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 6.9 | 2.2 13.2 | — | 0% | 73% | 0 | NO BET |
| PerriLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 4.4 | 2.0 6.8 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| BijolLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 11.8 | 6.3 18.3 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| RodonLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 10.4 | 5.4 16.3 | — | 0% | 81% | 0 | NO BET |
| BogleLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 9.6 | 4.0 16.0 | — | 0% | 77% | 0 | NO BET |
| GudmundssonLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 10.3 | 4.6 17.1 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| JustinLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 13.8 | 7.3 21.1 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| MuharemovićLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 13.0 | 7.3 19.9 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| StachLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 15.1 | 7.6 24.7 | — | 0% | 68% | 0 | NO BET |
| OkaforLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 8.4 | 2.4 16.1 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| AaronsonLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 10.5 | 4.8 17.5 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| AmpaduLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 14.8 | 8.5 22.1 | — | 0% | 83% | 0 | NO BET |
| LongstaffLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 14.1 | 7.1 22.3 | — | 0% | 58% | 0 | NO BET |
| JamesLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 8.4 | 3.2 15.3 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| TanakaLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 12.9 | 6.4 20.7 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| Calvert-LewinLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 5.4 | -0.6 13.7 | — | 0% | 70% | 0 | NO BET |
| NmechaLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 8.2 | 1.7 17.0 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| TraffordLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 5.1 | 2.6 8.1 | — | 0% | 54% | 0 | NO BET |
| M.SangaréBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 14.3 | 7.7 22.5 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| ElvediLEE | Player Performance | — | — | 11.9 | 6.0 18.8 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| DioufBRE | Player Performance | — | — | 11.2 | 5.5 18.1 | — | 0% | 69% | 0 | NO BET |
| AmpaduLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 83% | 0 | NO BET |
| MuharemovićLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| BogleLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.2 | — | 0% | 77% | 0 | NO BET |
| AaronsonLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.1 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| LongstaffLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 58% | 0 | NO BET |
| JamesLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.8 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| ElvediLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| WilsonLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.9 | — | 0% | 73% | 0 | NO BET |
| RodonLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 81% | 0 | NO BET |
| GudmundssonLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.2 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| StachLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.0 | — | 0% | 68% | 0 | NO BET |
| PerriLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| BijolLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| TraffordLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 54% | 0 | NO BET |
| JustinLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| OkaforLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| TanakaLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| Calvert-LewinLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.3 | — | 0% | 70% | 0 | NO BET |
| NmechaLEE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.4 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| Lewis-PotterBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| KayodeBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 79% | 0 | NO BET |
| Ji-sooBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| M.SangaréBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.0 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| JensenBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.0 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| KelleherBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 80% | 0 | NO BET |
| HenryBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.2 | — | 0% | 63% | 0 | NO BET |
| ThiagoBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.7 | 0.0 2.0 | — | 0% | 75% | 0 | NO BET |
| AjerBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 65% | 0 | NO BET |
| JaneltBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.9 | — | 0% | 65% | 0 | NO BET |
| AnthonyBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.4 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| DamsgaardBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| CollinsBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 75% | 0 | NO BET |
| O.DangoBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.3 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| YarmoliukBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| HickeyBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| SchadeBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.6 | 0.0 1.7 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| WilsonBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.7 | 0.0 1.8 | — | 0% | 63% | 0 | NO BET |
| DioufBRE | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 69% | 0 | NO BET |
Most likely scorelines
- 0–024.4%
- 1–018.6%
- 0–115.7%
Team news & model notes
Leeds
Bornauw (u), Piroe (u), Harrison (u), Gruev (i)
Brentford
Milambo (i), Van den Berg (i)
Model updated 30/08/2026, 02:26:20 · prices 29/08/2026, 14:31:21