Matches
Man City v Coventry City Prediction & Match Markets
Sat 5 Sept, 14:00 · Gameweek 3 · Man City (home)
Predicted score
2–0
14% likely
Expected goals
2.90 – 0.48
Total 3.38
MCI win
85%
Draw 11%
COV win
4%
BTTS 35%
Lineup confidence
76%
20,000 simulations
Minimum odds 1.50
Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.
On
Three best fixed-odds bets
Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated
#1 · Game
71Over 8.5 Corners
Total match corners
Model 77% vs market 67%
Price 1/2EV +16.1%Conf 51%
#2 · Game
34Under 3.5 Goals
Total match goals
Model 57% vs market 55%
Price 5/6EV +3.9%Conf 51%
Three best spread bets
One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently
#1 · Game
63SELL Total booking points at 38.00
Total booking points
Model 28.73 (range 10.60–53.00)
Edge 9.27Conf 51%
#2 · Game
32BUY Total match corners at 10.1
Total match corners
Model 11.6 (range 7.0–17.0)
Edge 1.50Conf 51%
#3 · Game
25SELL Total match goals at 3.60
Total match goals
Model 3.38 (range 1.00–6.00)
Edge 0.22Conf 51%
Predicted line-ups
Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model
Man City
5-4-1 · Medium confidence
- 1DonnarummaGKP
- 2GuéhiDEF
- 3RúbenDEF
- 4O'ReillyDEF
- 5GvardiolDEF
- 6KhusanovDEF
- 7SemenyoMID
- 8AndersonMID
- 9FodenMID
- 10CherkiMID
- 11HaalandFWD
Bench: Lewis, Grealish, Aït-Nouri, Bouaddi
Doubts: Matheus N.
Out: Doku
Full Man City predicted XI →Coventry City
3-5-2 · Low confidence
- 1RushworthGKP
- 2ThomasDEF
- 3van EwijkDEF
- 4DasilvaDEF
- 5TchaounaMID
- 6Mason-ClarkMID
- 7RudoniMID
- 8GrimesMID
- 9YirenkyiMID
- 10Thomas-AsanteFWD
- 11SimmsFWD
Bench: Onyeka, Awoniyi, Amenda, Torp
Out: Woolfenden, Kesler-Hayden, Wright
Full Coventry City predicted XI →Match spread markets
Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line
| Market | Sell | Buy | Model | Most likely | Floor → ceiling | Edge | Prob | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total booking points | 38.00 | 42.00 | 28.73 | 21.20 | 10.6 53.0 | 9.27 | 71% | 51% | 63 | SELL |
| Total match corners | 9.6 | 10.1 | 11.6 | 10.0 | 7.0 17.0 | 1.5 | 58% | 51% | 32 | BUY |
| Total match goals | 3.60 | 3.80 | 3.38 | 3.00 | 1.0 6.0 | 0.22 | 57% | 51% | 25 | SELL |
| Total match shots | — | — | 24.2 | 22.0 | 16.0 33.0 | — | — | 51% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots on target | — | — | 8.8 | 8.0 | 5.0 13.0 | — | — | 51% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match fouls | — | — | 18.9 | 17.0 | 12.0 27.0 | — | — | 51% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Goal supremacy (home) | — | — | 2.43 | 2.00 | 0.0 5.0 | — | — | 51% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Shot supremacy (home) | — | — | 11.6 | 10.0 | 5.0 19.0 | — | — | 51% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| SOT supremacy (home) | — | — | 4.8 | 5.0 | 1.0 9.0 | — | — | 51% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Corner supremacy (home) | — | — | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.0 11.0 | — | — | 51% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card supremacy (home) | — | — | -0.06 | 0.00 | -2.0 2.0 | — | — | 51% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Match fixed-odds markets
Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only
| Market | Selection | Price | Implied | Model | Fair odds | EV | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match corners | Over 8.5 Corners | 1/21.50 | 67% | 77% | 1.29 | +16.1% | 51% | 71 | BET |
| Total match corners | Over 9.5 Corners | 5/61.83 | 55% | 68% | 1.48 | +24.0% | 51% | 63 | BET |
| Total match corners | Over 10.5 Corners | 13/102.30 | 43% | 58% | 1.74 | +32.3% | 51% | 55 | BET |
| Total match corners | Over 12.5 Corners | 3/14.00 | 25% | 38% | 2.62 | +52.4% | 51% | 49 | BET |
| Total match corners | Over 11.5 Corners | 2/13.00 | 33% | 48% | 2.09 | +43.2% | 51% | 49 | BET |
| Total match corners | Over 13.5 Corners | 9/25.50 | 18% | 30% | 3.34 | +64.5% | 51% | 44 | BET |
| Total match corners | Over 14.5 Corners | 13/27.50 | 13% | 22% | 4.49 | +67.0% | 51% | 37 | BET |
| Total match goals | Under 3.5 Goals | 5/61.83 | 55% | 57% | 1.76 | +3.9% | 51% | 34 | LEAN |
| Total match corners | Over 15.5 Corners | 9/110.00 | 10% | 16% | 6.16 | +62.3% | 51% | 30 | BET |
| Total match goals | Under 2.5 Goals | 2/13.00 | 33% | 36% | 2.78 | +7.9% | 51% | 26 | LEAN |
| Total match corners | Over 16.5 Corners | 14/115.00 | 7% | 11% | 8.73 | +71.8% | 51% | 25 | BET |
| Total match corners | Over 17.5 Corners | 22/123.00 | 4% | 8% | 12.50 | +84.0% | 51% | 22 | LEAN |
| Total match corners | Over 18.5 Corners | 40/141.00 | 2% | 5% | 18.55 | +121.0% | 51% | 20 | LEAN |
| Total match goals | Under 1.5 Goals | 11/26.50 | 15% | 17% | 6.04 | +7.6% | 51% | 18 | LEAN |
| Total match goals | Over 3.5 Goals | 5/61.83 | 55% | 43% | 2.31 | -20.6% | 51% | 13 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Under 0.5 Goals | 18/119.00 | 5% | 4% | 24.15 | -21.3% | 51% | 13 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 4.5 Goals | 2/13.00 | 33% | 26% | 3.89 | -22.9% | 51% | 13 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 5.5 Goals | 17/45.25 | 19% | 14% | 7.23 | -27.4% | 51% | 13 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 10.5 Corners | 8/151.53 | 65% | 42% | 2.35 | -34.9% | 51% | 13 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 6.5 Goals | 8/19.00 | 11% | 7% | 15.16 | -40.6% | 51% | 13 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 9.5 Corners | 5/61.83 | 55% | 32% | 3.09 | -40.7% | 51% | 13 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 8.5 Corners | 7/52.40 | 42% | 23% | 4.42 | -45.7% | 51% | 13 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 7.5 Goals | 16/117.00 | 6% | 3% | 33.67 | -49.5% | 51% | 13 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 8.5 Goals | 40/141.00 | 2% | 1% | 84.39 | -51.4% | 51% | 13 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 7.5 Corners | 11/53.20 | 31% | 15% | 6.86 | -53.3% | 51% | 13 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 6.5 Corners | 15/44.75 | 21% | 9% | 11.35 | -58.2% | 51% | 13 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 5.5 Corners | 6/17.00 | 14% | 5% | 21.01 | -66.7% | 51% | 13 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 9.5 Goals | 66/167.00 | 1% | 0% | 212.77 | -68.5% | 51% | 13 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 4.5 Corners | 10/111.00 | 9% | 2% | 43.86 | -74.9% | 51% | 13 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 3.5 Corners | 22/123.00 | 4% | 1% | 109.89 | -79.1% | 51% | 13 | AVOID |
| Match outcome (model price) | MCI win | — | — | 85% | 1.17 | — | 51% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Draw | — | — | 11% | 9.36 | — | 51% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | COV win | — | — | 4% | 24.97 | — | 51% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score | — | — | 35% | 2.83 | — | 51% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MCI -1 goal handicap | — | — | 67% | 1.50 | — | 51% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | COV +1 goal handicap | — | — | 33% | 3.00 | — | 51% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MCI draw no bet | — | — | 96% | 1.05 | — | 51% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MCI double chance | — | — | 96% | 1.04 | — | 51% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | COV double chance | — | — | 15% | 6.81 | — | 51% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Player fixed-odds markets
Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only
No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.
Player spread markets
Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines
| Player | Market | Sell | Buy | Model | Floor → ceiling | Edge | Prob | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DovinCOV | Player Performance | — | — | 3.8 | 1.4 6.5 | — | 0% | 44% | 0 | NO BET |
| WilsonCOV | Player Performance | — | — | 3.8 | 1.4 6.5 | — | 0% | 38% | 0 | NO BET |
| KitchingCOV | Player Performance | — | — | 11.7 | 5.7 18.8 | — | 0% | 45% | 0 | NO BET |
| van EwijkCOV | Player Performance | — | — | 11.6 | 5.9 18.3 | — | 0% | 42% | 0 | NO BET |
| DasilvaCOV | Player Performance | — | — | 11.5 | 6.2 17.9 | — | 0% | 41% | 0 | NO BET |
| BidwellCOV | Player Performance | — | — | 11.4 | 5.5 18.2 | — | 0% | 41% | 0 | NO BET |
| LatibeaudiereCOV | Player Performance | — | — | 11.2 | 5.5 17.9 | — | 0% | 42% | 0 | NO BET |
| AmendaCOV | Player Performance | — | — | 11.5 | 6.2 17.9 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| RudoniCOV | Player Performance | — | — | 13.8 | 6.8 22.2 | — | 0% | 34% | 0 | NO BET |
| SakamotoCOV | Player Performance | — | — | 12.4 | 6.1 20.1 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| Mason-ClarkCOV | Player Performance | — | — | 12.4 | 6.1 20.2 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| EcclesCOV | Player Performance | — | — | 12.4 | 6.1 20.2 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| TorpCOV | Player Performance | — | — | 12.0 | 6.0 19.4 | — | 0% | 50% | 0 | NO BET |
| ShepherdCOV | Player Performance | — | — | 12.4 | 6.1 20.2 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| TchaounaCOV | Player Performance | — | — | 7.8 | 2.9 13.9 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| Thomas-AsanteCOV | Player Performance | — | — | 6.7 | 1.6 14.0 | — | 0% | 40% | 0 | NO BET |
| SimmsCOV | Player Performance | — | — | 6.2 | 1.4 13.3 | — | 0% | 37% | 0 | NO BET |
| GrealishMCI | Player Performance | — | — | 14.0 | 7.3 22.0 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| DonnarummaMCI | Player Performance | — | — | 5.7 | 3.3 8.0 | — | 0% | 74% | 0 | NO BET |
| O'ReillyMCI | Player Performance | — | — | 13.5 | 6.8 21.5 | — | 0% | 69% | 0 | NO BET |
| GuéhiMCI | Player Performance | — | — | 23.1 | 15.8 32.4 | — | 0% | 78% | 0 | NO BET |
| Matheus N.MCI | Player Performance | — | — | 17.7 | 11.1 24.7 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| RúbenMCI | Player Performance | — | — | 21.6 | 16.1 28.1 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| GvardiolMCI | Player Performance | — | — | 18.4 | 10.6 27.9 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| Aït-NouriMCI | Player Performance | — | — | 17.5 | 10.0 25.7 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| KhusanovMCI | Player Performance | — | — | 22.2 | 16.0 29.1 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| LewisMCI | Player Performance | — | — | 12.6 | 6.8 19.7 | — | 0% | 52% | 0 | NO BET |
| Vitor ReisMCI | Player Performance | — | — | 15.1 | 8.7 22.3 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| SemenyoMCI | Player Performance | — | — | 14.4 | 6.7 23.6 | — | 0% | 82% | 0 | NO BET |
| FodenMCI | Player Performance | — | — | 22.4 | 13.9 33.0 | — | 0% | 65% | 0 | NO BET |
| CherkiMCI | Player Performance | — | — | 26.9 | 16.5 39.8 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| HaalandMCI | Player Performance | — | — | 16.0 | 5.8 28.9 | — | 0% | 69% | 0 | NO BET |
| AndersonMCI | Player Performance | — | — | 19.6 | 11.3 29.0 | — | 0% | 75% | 0 | NO BET |
| HamerCOV | Player Performance | — | — | 9.9 | 4.9 16.1 | — | 0% | 70% | 0 | NO BET |
| CherifCOV | Player Performance | — | — | 8.5 | 2.4 17.0 | — | 0% | 33% | 0 | NO BET |
| BouaddiMCI | Player Performance | — | — | 18.1 | 10.3 27.0 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| McAidooMCI | Player Performance | — | — | 19.1 | 10.7 28.9 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| BraithwaiteMCI | Player Performance | — | — | 15.0 | 8.6 22.2 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| DovinCOV | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 44% | 0 | NO BET |
| WilsonCOV | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 38% | 0 | NO BET |
| KitchingCOV | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 45% | 0 | NO BET |
| van EwijkCOV | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 42% | 0 | NO BET |
| DasilvaCOV | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 41% | 0 | NO BET |
| BidwellCOV | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 41% | 0 | NO BET |
| LatibeaudiereCOV | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 42% | 0 | NO BET |
| AmendaCOV | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| RudoniCOV | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.8 | — | 0% | 34% | 0 | NO BET |
| SakamotoCOV | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| Mason-ClarkCOV | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| EcclesCOV | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| TorpCOV | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 50% | 0 | NO BET |
| ShepherdCOV | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| TchaounaCOV | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.8 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| Thomas-AsanteCOV | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.8 | — | 0% | 40% | 0 | NO BET |
| SimmsCOV | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.8 | — | 0% | 37% | 0 | NO BET |
| GrealishMCI | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| DonnarummaMCI | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 74% | 0 | NO BET |
| O'ReillyMCI | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 69% | 0 | NO BET |
| GuéhiMCI | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.1 | — | 0% | 78% | 0 | NO BET |
| Matheus N.MCI | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.2 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| RúbenMCI | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.8 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| GvardiolMCI | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| Aït-NouriMCI | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| KhusanovMCI | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.2 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| LewisMCI | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 52% | 0 | NO BET |
| Vitor ReisMCI | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| SemenyoMCI | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.9 | 0.0 2.3 | — | 0% | 82% | 0 | NO BET |
| FodenMCI | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.6 | 0.0 1.7 | — | 0% | 65% | 0 | NO BET |
| CherkiMCI | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.6 | 0.0 1.9 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| HaalandMCI | Shots on Target | — | — | 1.4 | 0.0 3.3 | — | 0% | 69% | 0 | NO BET |
| AndersonMCI | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.9 | — | 0% | 75% | 0 | NO BET |
| HamerCOV | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 70% | 0 | NO BET |
| CherifCOV | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 33% | 0 | NO BET |
| BouaddiMCI | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| McAidooMCI | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.5 | 0.0 1.6 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| BraithwaiteMCI | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
Most likely scorelines
- 2–014.2%
- 3–013.1%
- 1–010.6%
Team news & model notes
Man City
Alleyne (u), Doku (i), Rodrigo (u), Reijnders (u)
Coventry City
Woolfenden (i)
Model updated 30/08/2026, 02:25:49 · prices 29/08/2026, 14:31:21