Matches

Man Utd v Ipswich Town Prediction & Match Markets

Sun 30 Aug, 15:30 · Gameweek 2 · Man Utd (home)

Predicted score

1–1

12% likely

Expected goals

1.53 – 1.14

Total 2.66

MUN win

46%

Draw 26%

IPS win

28%

BTTS 52%

Lineup confidence

78%

20,000 simulations

Minimum odds 1.50

Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.

Three best fixed-odds bets

Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated

#1 · Player

100

Joshua Zirkzee - 40+

Zirkzee · Player Attempted Passes

Model 41% vs market 8% · projection 37.24

Price 12/1EV +436.4%Conf 65%

#2 · Game

Under 10.5 Corners

Total match corners

Model 77% vs market 64%

Price 4/7EV +20.9%Conf 48%

#3 · Game

Under 3.5 Cards

Total match cards

Model 74% vs market 55%

Price 5/6EV +35.2%Conf 48%

Three best spread bets

One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently

#1 · Game

SELL Total booking points at 36.00

Total booking points

Model 27.35 (range 10.60–53.00)

Edge 8.65Conf 48%

#2 · Game

SELL Total match goals at 3.10

Total match goals

Model 2.66 (range 1.00–5.00)

Edge 0.44Conf 48%

#3 · Game

SELL Total match corners at 9.7

Total match corners

Model 8.3 (range 4.0–13.0)

Edge 1.40Conf 48%

Predicted line-ups

Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model

Man Utd

4-5-1 · Medium confidence

1LammensGKP
2ShawDEF
3MaguireDEF
4DalotDEF
5HeavenDEF
6B.FernandesMID
7Andrey SantosMID
8CunhaMID
9MbeumoMID
10TielemansMID
11ŠeškoFWD

Bench: Dorgu, Mazraoui, Darlow, Yoro

Doubts: Heaton

Out: Amad, Baleba, De Ligt, Ugarte

Full Man Utd predicted XI →

Ipswich Town

4-5-1 · High confidence

1ScherpenGKP
2DiopDEF
3O'SheaDEF
4DavisDEF
5GreavesDEF
6LukićMID
7NúñezMID
8FatawuMID
9MaedaMID
10EncisoMID
11EmersonnFWD

Bench: Clarke, Ogbene, Akpom, Mehmeti

Doubts: Florentino, Matusiwa

Out: Philogene, Taylor

Full Ipswich Town predicted XI →

Match spread markets

Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line

Market	Sell	Buy	Model	Most likely	Floor → ceiling	Edge	Prob	Conf	Opp	Signal
Total booking points	36.00	40.00	27.35	21.20	10.6 53.0	8.65	74%	48%	63	SELL
Total match goals	3.10	3.30	2.66	2.00	1.0 5.0	0.44	72%	48%	46	SELL
Total match corners	9.7	10.2	8.3	7.0	4.0 13.0	1.4	68%	48%	43	SELL
Total match shots	—	—	23.3	22.0	15.0 32.0	—	—	48%	0	NO PRICE
Total match shots on target	—	—	8.5	7.0	4.0 13.0	—	—	48%	0	NO PRICE
Total match fouls	—	—	19.6	18.0	12.0 27.0	—	—	48%	0	NO PRICE
Goal supremacy (home)	—	—	0.39	0.00	-2.0 2.0	—	—	48%	0	NO PRICE
Shot supremacy (home)	—	—	10.1	9.0	3.0 17.0	—	—	48%	0	NO PRICE
SOT supremacy (home)	—	—	3.5	3.0	0.0 7.0	—	—	48%	0	NO PRICE
Corner supremacy (home)	—	—	3.3	3.0	0.0 7.0	—	—	48%	0	NO PRICE
Card supremacy (home)	—	—	0.52	0.00	-1.0 3.0	—	—	48%	0	NO PRICE

Match fixed-odds markets

Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only

Market	Selection	Price	Implied	Model	Fair odds	EV	Conf	Opp	Signal
Total match corners	Under 10.5 Corners	4/71.57	64%	77%	1.30	+20.9%	48%	69	BET
Total match cards	Under 3.5 Cards	5/61.83	55%	74%	1.36	+35.2%	48%	67	BET
Total match corners	Under 9.5 Corners	20/231.87	53%	68%	1.48	+26.3%	48%	62	BET
Total match corners	Under 8.5 Corners	6/42.50	40%	56%	1.78	+40.5%	48%	53	BET
Total match goals	Under 3.5 Goals	1/21.50	67%	72%	1.39	+7.6%	48%	52	LEAN
Total match cards	Under 2.5 Cards	15/82.88	35%	53%	1.89	+52.4%	48%	50	BET
Total match corners	Under 7.5 Corners	12/53.40	29%	44%	2.28	+49.4%	48%	48	BET
Total match cards	Under 1.5 Cards	5/16.00	17%	28%	3.51	+70.9%	48%	43	BET
Total match corners	Under 6.5 Corners	4/15.00	20%	31%	3.22	+55.5%	48%	41	BET
Total match goals	Under 2.5 Goals	11/82.38	42%	51%	1.96	+21.3%	48%	40	BET
Total match corners	Under 5.5 Corners	13/27.50	13%	20%	4.98	+50.6%	48%	30	BET
Total match goals	Under 1.5 Goals	15/44.75	21%	27%	3.68	+29.0%	48%	29	BET
Total match corners	Under 4.5 Corners	12/113.00	8%	11%	9.04	+43.8%	48%	21	LEAN
Total match cards	Under 0.5 Cards	16/117.00	6%	9%	11.66	+45.8%	48%	19	LEAN
Total match corners	Under 3.5 Corners	25/126.00	4%	5%	18.78	+38.5%	48%	16	LEAN
Total match goals	Under 0.5 Goals	12/113.00	8%	8%	12.63	+3.0%	48%	14	NO BET
Total match goals	Over 2.5 Goals	4/71.57	64%	49%	2.04	-23.2%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match goals	Over 3.5 Goals	6/42.50	40%	28%	3.54	-29.4%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 8.5 Corners	1/21.50	67%	44%	2.28	-34.3%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match goals	Over 4.5 Goals	10/34.33	23%	14%	7.08	-38.8%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 9.5 Corners	20/231.87	53%	32%	3.08	-39.3%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 10.5 Corners	11/82.38	42%	23%	4.34	-45.3%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match goals	Over 5.5 Goals	7/18.00	13%	6%	15.95	-49.8%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match cards	Over 3.5 Cards	5/61.83	55%	26%	3.81	-51.9%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 11.5 Corners	2/13.00	33%	16%	6.40	-53.1%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 12.5 Corners	16/54.20	24%	10%	9.66	-56.5%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match goals	Over 6.5 Goals	16/117.00	6%	3%	39.14	-56.6%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 13.5 Corners	5/16.00	17%	7%	15.09	-60.2%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match cards	Over 4.5 Cards	15/82.88	35%	13%	7.79	-63.1%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match goals	Over 7.5 Goals	33/134.00	3%	1%	107.53	-68.4%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 14.5 Corners	13/27.50	13%	4%	25.74	-70.9%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match cards	Over 5.5 Cards	7/24.50	22%	6%	18.12	-75.2%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match goals	Over 8.5 Goals	80/181.00	1%	0%	327.87	-75.3%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 15.5 Corners	10/111.00	9%	2%	45.87	-76.0%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 16.5 Corners	16/117.00	6%	1%	82.30	-79.3%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 18.5 Corners	40/141.00	2%	0%	240.96	-83.0%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match corners	Over 17.5 Corners	22/123.00	4%	1%	145.99	-84.2%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match cards	Over 6.5 Cards	13/27.50	13%	2%	48.19	-84.4%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match cards	Over 7.5 Cards	10/111.00	9%	1%	122.70	-91.0%	48%	12	AVOID
Total match cards	Over 8.5 Cards	25/126.00	4%	0%	384.62	-93.2%	48%	12	AVOID
Match outcome (model price)	MUN win	—	—	46%	2.18	—	48%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	Draw	—	—	26%	3.86	—	48%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	IPS win	—	—	28%	3.55	—	48%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	Both teams to score	—	—	52%	1.91	—	48%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	MUN -1 goal handicap	—	—	23%	4.31	—	48%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	IPS +1 goal handicap	—	—	77%	1.30	—	48%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	MUN draw no bet	—	—	62%	1.61	—	48%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	MUN double chance	—	—	72%	1.39	—	48%	0	NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)	IPS double chance	—	—	54%	1.85	—	48%	0	NO PRICE

Player fixed-odds markets

Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only

Player	Market	Selection	Price	Implied	Model	Projection	EV	Conf	Score	Signal
ZirkzeeMUN	Player Attempted Passes	Joshua Zirkzee - 40+	12/113.00	8%	41%	37.24	+436.4%	65%	100	LEAN
ZirkzeeMUN	Player Attempted Passes	Joshua Zirkzee - 35+	17/45.25	19%	64%	37.24	+233.8%	65%	100	LEAN
ZirkzeeMUN	Player Attempted Passes	Joshua Zirkzee - 30+	6/42.50	40%	81%	37.24	+103.0%	65%	100	LEAN
ShawMUN	Player Attempted Passes	Luke Shaw - 50+	4/61.67	60%	78%	55.93	+30.4%	83%	94	BET
ZirkzeeMUN	Player Attempted Passes	Joshua Zirkzee - 25+	1/21.50	67%	92%	37.24	+37.9%	65%	92	LEAN
ShawMUN	Player Attempted Passes	Luke Shaw - 55+	13/102.30	44%	57%	55.93	+30.2%	83%	87	BET
LukićIPS	Player Fouls Committed	Sasa Lukic - 3+	13/82.63	38%	44%	2.41	+14.9%	71%	57	BET
ShawMUN	Player Attempted Passes	Luke Shaw - 60+	5/23.50	29%	32%	55.93	+13.5%	83%	57	BET
LukićIPS	Player Fouls Committed	Sasa Lukic - 4+	17/45.25	19%	22%	2.41	+15.8%	71%	54	BET
LukićIPS	Player Fouls Committed	Sasa Lukic - 2+	6/111.55	65%	70%	2.41	+7.5%	71%	50	BET
McAteerIPS	Player Attempted Passes	Kasey McAteer - 35+	9/110.00	10%	49%	34.12	+392.9%	50%	0	REFERENCE
MaedaIPS	Player Attempted Passes	Daizen Maeda - 22+	18/54.60	22%	80%	27.78	+266.9%	60%	0	REFERENCE
McAteerIPS	Player Attempted Passes	Kasey McAteer - 30+	3/14.00	25%	72%	34.12	+187.3%	50%	0	REFERENCE
MaedaIPS	Player Attempted Passes	Daizen Maeda - 20+	2/13.00	33%	88%	27.78	+164.8%	60%	0	REFERENCE
MaedaIPS	Player Attempted Passes	Daizen Maeda - 18+	11/102.10	48%	92%	27.78	+93.3%	60%	0	REFERENCE
McAteerIPS	Player Attempted Passes	Kasey McAteer - 25+	19/201.95	51%	88%	34.12	+71.0%	50%	0	REFERENCE
MaedaIPS	Player Attempted Passes	Daizen Maeda - 16+	4/71.57	64%	96%	27.78	+50.5%	60%	0	REFERENCE
ClarkeIPS	Player Attempted Passes	Jack Clarke - 40+	19/45.75	17%	26%	34.03	+46.7%	56%	0	REFERENCE
ClarkeIPS	Player Attempted Passes	Jack Clarke - 35+	9/52.80	36%	49%	34.03	+36.9%	56%	0	REFERENCE
DavisIPS	Player Attempted Passes	Leif Davis - 35+	5/42.25	44%	61%	36.33	+36.6%	80%	0	REFERENCE
DavisIPS	Player Attempted Passes	Leif Davis - 40+	3/14.00	25%	31%	36.33	+24.4%	80%	0	REFERENCE
ClarkeIPS	Player Attempted Passes	Jack Clarke - 30+	4/61.67	60%	71%	34.03	+18.5%	56%	0	REFERENCE

Player spread markets

Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines

Player	Market	Sell	Buy	Model	Floor → ceiling	Edge	Prob	Conf	Signal
TielemansMUN	Player Performance	—	—	15.3	8.7 23.2	—	0%	65%	NO BET
Andrey SantosMUN	Player Performance	—	—	14.7	8.4 22.1	—	0%	63%	NO BET
DiopIPS	Player Performance	—	—	9.4	4.8 14.8	—	0%	56%	NO BET
LukićIPS	Player Performance	—	—	11.8	5.1 19.7	—	0%	74%	NO BET
WaltonIPS	Player Performance	—	—	3.8	1.5 6.3	—	0%	53%	NO BET
PalmerIPS	Player Performance	—	—	3.7	1.4 6.3	—	0%	54%	NO BET
KipréIPS	Player Performance	—	—	11.2	5.5 17.9	—	0%	46%	NO BET
O'SheaIPS	Player Performance	—	—	13.4	7.5 20.1	—	0%	83%	NO BET
DavisIPS	Player Performance	—	—	12.2	6.7 18.5	—	0%	78%	NO BET
GreavesIPS	Player Performance	—	—	12.8	7.2 19.3	—	0%	74%	NO BET
JohnsonIPS	Player Performance	—	—	10.2	5.0 16.4	—	0%	62%	NO BET
FurlongIPS	Player Performance	—	—	10.1	4.9 16.2	—	0%	73%	NO BET
NúñezIPS	Player Performance	—	—	10.5	4.9 17.4	—	0%	37%	NO BET
ClarkeIPS	Player Performance	—	—	18.2	8.0 31.5	—	0%	54%	NO BET
FatawuIPS	Player Performance	—	—	10.3	4.8 17.1	—	0%	48%	NO BET
EmersonnIPS	Player Performance	—	—	7.4	1.7 15.9	—	0%	33%	NO BET
McAteerIPS	Player Performance	—	—	11.8	5.9 18.7	—	0%	47%	NO BET
MehmetiIPS	Player Performance	—	—	12.3	5.9 19.9	—	0%	48%	NO BET
DarlowMUN	Player Performance	—	—	7.8	4.7 10.8	—	0%	61%	NO BET
LammensMUN	Player Performance	—	—	6.3	4.0 8.6	—	0%	76%	NO BET
DorguMUN	Player Performance	—	—	10.8	3.8 19.7	—	0%	61%	NO BET
DalotMUN	Player Performance	—	—	12.6	6.6 19.5	—	0%	70%	NO BET
MaguireMUN	Player Performance	—	—	15.7	10.0 22.6	—	0%	65%	NO BET
MartinezMUN	Player Performance	—	—	16.8	10.6 23.7	—	0%	63%	NO BET
YoroMUN	Player Performance	—	—	14.6	8.2 21.9	—	0%	64%	NO BET
HeavenMUN	Player Performance	—	—	15.8	10.4 22.3	—	0%	64%	NO BET
MazraouiMUN	Player Performance	—	—	13.2	7.4 20.1	—	0%	63%	NO BET
ShawMUN	Player Performance	—	—	15.7	9.8 22.6	—	0%	83%	NO BET
B.FernandesMUN	Player Performance	—	—	23.8	16.0 33.2	—	0%	82%	NO BET
MbeumoMUN	Player Performance	—	—	15.3	7.7 24.8	—	0%	71%	NO BET
CunhaMUN	Player Performance	—	—	13.9	6.5 23.2	—	0%	67%	NO BET
MountMUN	Player Performance	—	—	14.8	7.5 23.7	—	0%	65%	NO BET
MainooMUN	Player Performance	—	—	17.7	10.7 25.7	—	0%	61%	NO BET
ŠeškoMUN	Player Performance	—	—	11.6	3.6 21.8	—	0%	58%	NO BET
ZirkzeeMUN	Player Performance	—	—	17.2	8.2 28.4	—	0%	59%	NO BET
MaedaIPS	Player Performance	—	—	10.9	5.2 18.2	—	0%	50%	NO BET
FlorentinoIPS	Player Performance	—	—	13.9	6.6 22.4	—	0%	56%	NO BET
EncisoIPS	Player Performance	—	—	9.9	4.4 16.9	—	0%	48%	NO BET
TielemansMUN	Shots on Target	—	—	0.2	0.0 0.8	—	0%	65%	NO BET
Andrey SantosMUN	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.4	—	0%	63%	NO BET
DiopIPS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.1	—	0%	56%	NO BET
LukićIPS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.4	—	0%	74%	NO BET
WaltonIPS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.0	—	0%	53%	NO BET
PalmerIPS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.0	—	0%	54%	NO BET
KipréIPS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.3	—	0%	46%	NO BET
O'SheaIPS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.3	—	0%	83%	NO BET
DavisIPS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.3	—	0%	78%	NO BET
GreavesIPS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.3	—	0%	74%	NO BET
JohnsonIPS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.3	—	0%	62%	NO BET
FurlongIPS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.3	—	0%	73%	NO BET
NúñezIPS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.6	—	0%	37%	NO BET
ClarkeIPS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.2	0.0 1.1	—	0%	54%	NO BET
FatawuIPS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.3	—	0%	48%	NO BET
EmersonnIPS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.2	0.0 1.1	—	0%	33%	NO BET
McAteerIPS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.4	—	0%	47%	NO BET
MehmetiIPS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.6	—	0%	48%	NO BET
DarlowMUN	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.0	—	0%	61%	NO BET
LammensMUN	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.0	—	0%	76%	NO BET
DorguMUN	Shots on Target	—	—	0.3	0.0 1.2	—	0%	61%	NO BET
DalotMUN	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.6	—	0%	70%	NO BET
MaguireMUN	Shots on Target	—	—	0.2	0.0 1.1	—	0%	65%	NO BET
MartinezMUN	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.2	—	0%	63%	NO BET
YoroMUN	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.5	—	0%	64%	NO BET
HeavenMUN	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.3	—	0%	64%	NO BET
MazraouiMUN	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.2	—	0%	63%	NO BET
ShawMUN	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.3	—	0%	83%	NO BET
B.FernandesMUN	Shots on Target	—	—	0.6	0.0 1.7	—	0%	82%	NO BET
MbeumoMUN	Shots on Target	—	—	0.8	0.0 2.3	—	0%	71%	NO BET
CunhaMUN	Shots on Target	—	—	0.7	0.0 2.0	—	0%	67%	NO BET
MountMUN	Shots on Target	—	—	0.3	0.0 1.2	—	0%	65%	NO BET
MainooMUN	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.5	—	0%	61%	NO BET
ŠeškoMUN	Shots on Target	—	—	1.2	0.0 2.9	—	0%	58%	NO BET
ZirkzeeMUN	Shots on Target	—	—	0.9	0.0 2.4	—	0%	59%	NO BET
MaedaIPS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.6	—	0%	50%	NO BET
FlorentinoIPS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.0	0.0 0.1	—	0%	56%	NO BET
EncisoIPS	Shots on Target	—	—	0.1	0.0 0.5	—	0%	48%	NO BET

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%
1–011.0%
2–18.5%

Team news & model notes

Man Utd

Bayindir (u), Fredricson (u), Ugarte (i), Baleba (i), De Ligt (i), Amad (i)

Ipswich Town

Szmodics (u), Burns (u), Hirst (u), Al-Hamadi (u), Philogene (i), Taylor (i)

Model updated 30/08/2026, 02:25:46 · prices 29/08/2026, 14:31:21

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