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Man Utd v Man City Prediction & Match Markets

Sun 13 Sept, 15:30 · Gameweek 4 · Man Utd (home)

Predicted score

0–1

12% likely

Expected goals
1.03 – 1.67
Total 2.70
MUN win
23%
Draw 24%
MCI win
52%
BTTS 51%
Lineup confidence
77%
20,000 simulations

Minimum odds 1.50

Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.

On

Three best fixed-odds bets

Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated

No rated fixed-odds bets for this fixture.

Three best spread bets

One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently

No rated spread bets for this fixture.

Predicted line-ups

Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model

Man Utd

4-5-1 · Medium confidence
  1. 1LammensGKP
  2. 2ShawDEF
  3. 3MaguireDEF
  4. 4DalotDEF
  5. 5HeavenDEF
  6. 6B.FernandesMID
  7. 7Andrey SantosMID
  8. 8CunhaMID
  9. 9MbeumoMID
  10. 10TielemansMID
  11. 11ŠeškoFWD

Bench: Dorgu, Mazraoui, Darlow, Yoro

Doubts: Heaton

Out: Amad, Baleba, De Ligt, Ugarte

Full Man Utd predicted XI →

Man City

5-4-1 · Medium confidence
  1. 1DonnarummaGKP
  2. 2GuéhiDEF
  3. 3RúbenDEF
  4. 4O'ReillyDEF
  5. 5GvardiolDEF
  6. 6KhusanovDEF
  7. 7SemenyoMID
  8. 8AndersonMID
  9. 9FodenMID
  10. 10CherkiMID
  11. 11HaalandFWD

Bench: Lewis, Grealish, Aït-Nouri, Bouaddi

Doubts: Matheus N.

Out: Doku

Full Man City predicted XI →

Match spread markets

Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line

MarketSellBuyModelMost likelyFloor → ceilingEdgeProbConfOppSignal
Total match goals——2.702.00
1.0
5.0
——75%0NO PRICE
Total match shots——20.420.0
13.0
28.0
——75%0NO PRICE
Total match shots on target——7.87.0
4.0
12.0
——75%0NO PRICE
Total match corners——7.67.0
4.0
12.0
——75%0NO PRICE
Total match cards——3.153.00
1.0
6.0
——75%0NO PRICE
Total match fouls——16.915.0
10.0
24.0
——75%0NO PRICE
Goal supremacy (home)——-0.650.00
-3.0
1.0
——75%0NO PRICE
Shot supremacy (home)——2.22.0
-4.0
8.0
——75%0NO PRICE
SOT supremacy (home)——0.20.0
-3.0
4.0
——75%0NO PRICE
Corner supremacy (home)——0.10.0
-4.0
4.0
——75%0NO PRICE
Card supremacy (home)——-0.350.00
-3.0
2.0
——75%0NO PRICE

Match fixed-odds markets

Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only

MarketSelectionPriceImpliedModelFair oddsEVConfOppSignal
Match outcome (model price)MUN win——23%4.28—75%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)Draw——24%4.12—75%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)MCI win——52%1.91—75%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)Both teams to score——51%1.96—75%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)MUN -1 goal handicap——9%11.76—75%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)MCI +1 goal handicap——91%1.09—75%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)MUN draw no bet——31%3.24—75%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)MUN double chance——48%2.10—75%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)MCI double chance——77%1.30—75%0NO PRICE

Player fixed-odds markets

Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only

No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.

Player spread markets

Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines

PlayerMarketSellBuyModelFloor → ceilingEdgeProbConfOppSignal
TielemansMUNPlayer Performance——12.8
6.7
20.2
—0%61%0NO BET
Andrey SantosMUNPlayer Performance——12.3
6.5
19.3
—0%64%0NO BET
GrealishMCIPlayer Performance——12.8
6.5
20.2
—0%62%0NO BET
DarlowMUNPlayer Performance——5.7
3.1
8.3
—0%62%0NO BET
DonnarummaMCIPlayer Performance——5.2
2.9
7.3
—0%74%0NO BET
O'ReillyMCIPlayer Performance——12.5
6.1
20.3
—0%69%0NO BET
GuéhiMCIPlayer Performance——21.3
14.3
30.2
—0%78%0NO BET
Matheus N.MCIPlayer Performance——16.7
10.3
23.7
—0%61%0NO BET
RúbenMCIPlayer Performance——19.8
14.4
26.1
—0%67%0NO BET
GvardiolMCIPlayer Performance——17.1
9.6
26.2
—0%57%0NO BET
Aït-NouriMCIPlayer Performance——16.0
8.9
23.9
—0%56%0NO BET
KhusanovMCIPlayer Performance——20.6
14.6
27.3
—0%60%0NO BET
LewisMCIPlayer Performance——11.5
6.0
18.3
—0%52%0NO BET
Vitor ReisMCIPlayer Performance——13.6
7.7
20.5
—0%49%0NO BET
SemenyoMCIPlayer Performance——12.5
5.3
21.2
—0%82%0NO BET
FodenMCIPlayer Performance——20.3
12.2
30.3
—0%65%0NO BET
CherkiMCIPlayer Performance——23.5
14.0
35.6
—0%62%0NO BET
HaalandMCIPlayer Performance——12.8
3.8
24.5
—0%69%0NO BET
LammensMUNPlayer Performance——4.5
2.4
6.5
—0%73%0NO BET
DorguMUNPlayer Performance——9.0
2.6
17.3
—0%62%0NO BET
DalotMUNPlayer Performance——10.5
4.8
17.3
—0%67%0NO BET
MaguireMUNPlayer Performance——12.1
6.9
18.6
—0%61%0NO BET
MartinezMUNPlayer Performance——13.1
7.5
19.5
—0%64%0NO BET
YoroMUNPlayer Performance——12.2
6.2
19.1
—0%61%0NO BET
HeavenMUNPlayer Performance——12.5
7.4
18.6
—0%64%0NO BET
MazraouiMUNPlayer Performance——11.0
5.5
17.7
—0%63%0NO BET
ShawMUNPlayer Performance——13.5
7.6
20.4
—0%79%0NO BET
B.FernandesMUNPlayer Performance——18.1
11.2
26.4
—0%77%0NO BET
MbeumoMUNPlayer Performance——11.7
5.1
20.3
—0%67%0NO BET
CunhaMUNPlayer Performance——10.2
4.1
18.0
—0%63%0NO BET
MountMUNPlayer Performance——11.9
5.4
19.8
—0%65%0NO BET
MainooMUNPlayer Performance——14.8
8.2
22.6
—0%58%0NO BET
ŠeškoMUNPlayer Performance——7.7
1.3
16.4
—0%55%0NO BET
ZirkzeeMUNPlayer Performance——12.5
5.1
21.9
—0%59%0NO BET
AndersonMCIPlayer Performance——18.5
10.5
27.5
—0%75%0NO BET
BouaddiMCIPlayer Performance——16.4
9.2
24.9
—0%47%0NO BET
McAidooMCIPlayer Performance——16.7
9.2
25.8
—0%48%0NO BET
BraithwaiteMCIPlayer Performance——13.7
7.7
20.5
—0%48%0NO BET
TielemansMUNShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.4
—0%61%0NO BET
Andrey SantosMUNShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.2
—0%64%0NO BET
GrealishMCIShots on Target——0.2
0.0
1.1
—0%62%0NO BET
DarlowMUNShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.0
—0%62%0NO BET
DonnarummaMCIShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.0
—0%74%0NO BET
O'ReillyMCIShots on Target——0.2
0.0
1.1
—0%69%0NO BET
GuéhiMCIShots on Target——0.2
0.0
0.9
—0%78%0NO BET
Matheus N.MCIShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.2
—0%61%0NO BET
RúbenMCIShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.7
—0%67%0NO BET
GvardiolMCIShots on Target——0.2
0.0
1.1
—0%57%0NO BET
Aït-NouriMCIShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.4
—0%56%0NO BET
KhusanovMCIShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.1
—0%60%0NO BET
LewisMCIShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.5
—0%52%0NO BET
Vitor ReisMCIShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.5
—0%49%0NO BET
SemenyoMCIShots on Target——0.7
0.0
1.9
—0%82%0NO BET
FodenMCIShots on Target——0.5
0.0
1.5
—0%65%0NO BET
CherkiMCIShots on Target——0.5
0.0
1.5
—0%62%0NO BET
HaalandMCIShots on Target——1.0
0.0
2.6
—0%69%0NO BET
LammensMUNShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.0
—0%73%0NO BET
DorguMUNShots on Target——0.2
0.0
0.9
—0%62%0NO BET
DalotMUNShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.4
—0%67%0NO BET
MaguireMUNShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.7
—0%61%0NO BET
MartinezMUNShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.1
—0%64%0NO BET
YoroMUNShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.3
—0%61%0NO BET
HeavenMUNShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.2
—0%64%0NO BET
MazraouiMUNShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.1
—0%63%0NO BET
ShawMUNShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.2
—0%79%0NO BET
B.FernandesMUNShots on Target——0.3
0.0
1.2
—0%77%0NO BET
MbeumoMUNShots on Target——0.5
0.0
1.6
—0%67%0NO BET
CunhaMUNShots on Target——0.3
0.0
1.3
—0%63%0NO BET
MountMUNShots on Target——0.2
0.0
0.9
—0%65%0NO BET
MainooMUNShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.3
—0%58%0NO BET
ŠeškoMUNShots on Target——0.7
0.0
2.1
—0%55%0NO BET
ZirkzeeMUNShots on Target——0.5
0.0
1.6
—0%59%0NO BET
AndersonMCIShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.7
—0%75%0NO BET
BouaddiMCIShots on Target——0.2
0.0
1.0
—0%47%0NO BET
McAidooMCIShots on Target——0.4
0.0
1.3
—0%48%0NO BET
BraithwaiteMCIShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.5
—0%48%0NO BET

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–111.6%
  • 1–111.2%
  • 1–29.4%

Team news & model notes

Man Utd

Bayindir (u), Fredricson (u), Ugarte (i), Baleba (i), De Ligt (i), Amad (i)

Man City

Alleyne (u), Doku (i), Rodrigo (u), Reijnders (u)

Model updated 30/08/2026, 02:25:42 · no live prices captured

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