Matches
Newcastle v Bournemouth Prediction & Match Markets
Sat 5 Sept, 11:30 · Gameweek 3 · Newcastle (home)
Predicted score
1–1
11% likely
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.47
Total 3.05
NEW win
40%
Draw 24%
BOU win
36%
BTTS 60%
Lineup confidence
75%
20,000 simulations
Minimum odds 1.50
Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.
On
Three best fixed-odds bets
Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated
No rated fixed-odds bets for this fixture.
Three best spread bets
One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently
#1 · Game
42BUY Total booking points at 42.00
Total booking points
Model 47.59 (range 21.20–84.80)
Edge 5.59Conf 76%
#2 · Game
32SELL Total match goals at 3.10
Total match goals
Model 3.05 (range 1.00–5.00)
Edge 0.05Conf 76%
Predicted line-ups
Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model
Newcastle
4-5-1 · High confidence
- 1HorníčekGKP
- 2ThiawDEF
- 3BotmanDEF
- 4HallDEF
- 5DedićDEF
- 6N.GonzalezMID
- 7BarnesMID
- 8ElangaMID
- 9J.RamseyMID
- 10L.MileyMID
- 11WissaFWD
Bench: Pope, Willock, Steur, Woltemade
Doubts: Touré, Livramento
Out: Burn, Osula, Joelinton
Full Newcastle predicted XI →Bournemouth
4-5-1 · High confidence
- 1PetrovićGKP
- 2TruffertDEF
- 3HillDEF
- 4SmithDEF
- 5DiakitéDEF
- 6RayanMID
- 7TavernierMID
- 8ScottMID
- 9KluivertMID
- 10AdamsMID
- 11EvanilsonFWD
Bench: Cook, Rodríguez, Brooks, Christie
Out: Silva, Kroupi.Jr, Milosavljević, J.Araujo, Adli
Full Bournemouth predicted XI →Match spread markets
Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line
| Market | Sell | Buy | Model | Most likely | Floor → ceiling | Edge | Prob | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total booking points | 38.00 | 42.00 | 47.59 | 42.40 | 21.2 84.8 | 5.59 | 64% | 76% | 42 | BUY |
| Total match goals | 3.10 | 3.30 | 3.05 | 3.00 | 1.0 5.0 | 0.05 | 64% | 76% | 32 | SELL |
| Total match corners | 9.6 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 6.0 15.0 | 0.0 | 47% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| Total match shots | — | — | 24.8 | 24.0 | 17.0 34.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots on target | — | — | 9.6 | 9.0 | 5.0 14.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match fouls | — | — | 22.7 | 21.0 | 15.0 31.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Goal supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.12 | 0.00 | -2.0 2.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Shot supremacy (home) | — | — | -1.1 | 1.0 | -8.0 6.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| SOT supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 | -4.0 4.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Corner supremacy (home) | — | — | 1.5 | 1.0 | -3.0 6.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card supremacy (home) | — | — | -0.64 | 0.00 | -3.0 2.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Match fixed-odds markets
Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only
| Market | Selection | Price | Implied | Model | Fair odds | EV | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match corners | Over 8.5 Corners | 1/21.50 | 67% | 64% | 1.55 | -3.4% | 76% | 38 | NO BET |
| Total match goals | Under 3.5 Goals | 1/21.50 | 67% | 64% | 1.57 | -4.4% | 76% | 36 | NO BET |
| Total match corners | Over 9.5 Corners | 5/61.83 | 55% | 53% | 1.88 | -2.4% | 76% | 30 | NO BET |
| Total match corners | Over 10.5 Corners | 13/102.30 | 43% | 43% | 2.33 | -1.4% | 76% | 26 | NO BET |
| Total match goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 8/151.53 | 65% | 58% | 1.72 | -10.8% | 76% | 26 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 10.5 Corners | 8/151.53 | 65% | 57% | 1.75 | -12.4% | 76% | 25 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 11.5 Corners | 2/13.00 | 33% | 33% | 3.05 | -1.6% | 76% | 24 | NO BET |
| Total match goals | Under 2.5 Goals | 13/102.30 | 43% | 42% | 2.39 | -3.9% | 76% | 24 | NO BET |
| Total match corners | Over 12.5 Corners | 3/14.00 | 25% | 24% | 4.12 | -2.9% | 76% | 22 | NO BET |
| Total match corners | Over 13.5 Corners | 9/25.50 | 18% | 17% | 5.73 | -4.0% | 76% | 21 | NO BET |
| Total match goals | Under 1.5 Goals | 7/24.50 | 22% | 20% | 4.92 | -8.5% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 14.5 Corners | 13/27.50 | 13% | 12% | 8.23 | -8.8% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 3.5 Goals | 7/52.40 | 42% | 36% | 2.76 | -13.0% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 9.5 Corners | 5/61.83 | 55% | 47% | 2.14 | -14.3% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 8.5 Corners | 7/52.40 | 42% | 36% | 2.81 | -14.6% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 18.5 Corners | 40/141.00 | 2% | 2% | 50.00 | -18.0% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 15.5 Corners | 9/110.00 | 10% | 8% | 12.34 | -18.9% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 7.5 Corners | 11/53.20 | 31% | 25% | 3.96 | -19.2% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 16.5 Corners | 14/115.00 | 7% | 5% | 18.87 | -20.5% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 4.5 Goals | 3/14.00 | 25% | 20% | 5.07 | -21.0% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 6.5 Corners | 15/44.75 | 21% | 16% | 6.19 | -23.3% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 5.5 Goals | 13/27.50 | 13% | 10% | 10.16 | -26.2% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 17.5 Corners | 22/123.00 | 4% | 3% | 31.30 | -26.5% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 5.5 Corners | 6/17.00 | 14% | 9% | 10.81 | -35.2% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Under 0.5 Goals | 10/111.00 | 9% | 5% | 18.80 | -41.5% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 6.5 Goals | 12/113.00 | 8% | 4% | 22.62 | -42.5% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 4.5 Corners | 10/111.00 | 9% | 5% | 21.65 | -49.2% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 7.5 Goals | 28/129.00 | 3% | 2% | 58.82 | -50.7% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 3.5 Corners | 22/123.00 | 4% | 2% | 49.26 | -53.3% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 8.5 Goals | 66/167.00 | 1% | 1% | 178.57 | -62.5% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW win | — | — | 40% | 2.49 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Draw | — | — | 24% | 4.19 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BOU win | — | — | 36% | 2.78 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score | — | — | 60% | 1.67 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW -1 goal handicap | — | — | 20% | 4.92 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BOU +1 goal handicap | — | — | 80% | 1.26 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW draw no bet | — | — | 53% | 1.90 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW double chance | — | — | 64% | 1.56 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BOU double chance | — | — | 60% | 1.67 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Player fixed-odds markets
Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only
No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.
Player spread markets
Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines
| Player | Market | Sell | Buy | Model | Floor → ceiling | Edge | Prob | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetrovićBOU | Player Performance | — | — | 5.2 | 3.0 7.4 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| ForsterBOU | Player Performance | — | — | 6.1 | 3.2 9.2 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| HillBOU | Player Performance | — | — | 14.7 | 9.1 21.1 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| TruffertBOU | Player Performance | — | — | 15.4 | 9.3 22.3 | — | 0% | 77% | 0 | NO BET |
| DiakitéBOU | Player Performance | — | — | 13.2 | 7.7 19.4 | — | 0% | 53% | 0 | NO BET |
| SmithBOU | Player Performance | — | — | 8.9 | 4.2 14.5 | — | 0% | 53% | 0 | NO BET |
| RayanBOU | Player Performance | — | — | 11.5 | 5.5 19.0 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| TavernierBOU | Player Performance | — | — | 17.7 | 9.8 28.0 | — | 0% | 68% | 0 | NO BET |
| ScottBOU | Player Performance | — | — | 17.9 | 11.2 25.8 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| KluivertBOU | Player Performance | — | — | 8.3 | 3.3 14.8 | — | 0% | 50% | 0 | NO BET |
| CookBOU | Player Performance | — | — | 13.2 | 7.5 20.0 | — | 0% | 53% | 0 | NO BET |
| AdamsBOU | Player Performance | — | — | 16.9 | 9.5 25.3 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| BrooksBOU | Player Performance | — | — | 14.8 | 7.3 23.7 | — | 0% | 52% | 0 | NO BET |
| ChristieBOU | Player Performance | — | — | 18.6 | 10.4 27.9 | — | 0% | 58% | 0 | NO BET |
| EvanilsonBOU | Player Performance | — | — | 6.5 | 0.7 14.5 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| RodríguezBOU | Player Performance | — | — | 12.3 | 5.4 21.6 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| N.GonzalezNEW | Player Performance | — | — | 16.5 | 9.2 24.6 | — | 0% | 58% | 0 | NO BET |
| PopeNEW | Player Performance | — | — | 2.8 | 0.8 5.0 | — | 0% | 70% | 0 | NO BET |
| JaouenNEW | Player Performance | — | — | 4.2 | 1.7 6.9 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| ThiawNEW | Player Performance | — | — | 11.6 | 6.3 17.9 | — | 0% | 79% | 0 | NO BET |
| SchärNEW | Player Performance | — | — | 13.1 | 7.1 19.9 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| BotmanNEW | Player Performance | — | — | 13.2 | 7.9 19.4 | — | 0% | 70% | 0 | NO BET |
| HallNEW | Player Performance | — | — | 16.2 | 9.7 23.6 | — | 0% | 74% | 0 | NO BET |
| BarnesNEW | Player Performance | — | — | 9.0 | 3.5 16.1 | — | 0% | 72% | 0 | NO BET |
| ElangaNEW | Player Performance | — | — | 7.6 | 2.7 15.2 | — | 0% | 53% | 0 | NO BET |
| J.RamseyNEW | Player Performance | — | — | 10.9 | 4.7 18.6 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| J.MurphyNEW | Player Performance | — | — | 7.1 | 2.1 13.6 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| L.MileyNEW | Player Performance | — | — | 9.3 | 4.2 15.7 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| WillockNEW | Player Performance | — | — | 12.3 | 4.2 23.6 | — | 0% | 54% | 0 | NO BET |
| SteurNEW | Player Performance | — | — | 9.0 | 4.0 15.5 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| WoltemadeNEW | Player Performance | — | — | 6.9 | 1.4 14.9 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| WissaNEW | Player Performance | — | — | 9.2 | 1.9 19.1 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| BambaNEW | Player Performance | — | — | 14.3 | 7.5 22.3 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| SilvaBOU | Player Performance | — | — | 15.8 | 10.2 22.3 | — | 0% | 45% | 0 | NO BET |
| HorníčekNEW | Player Performance | — | — | 4.9 | 2.1 8.1 | — | 0% | 45% | 0 | NO BET |
| SanchezBOU | Player Performance | — | — | 15.2 | 8.7 22.5 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| DedićNEW | Player Performance | — | — | 12.4 | 6.7 19.2 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| Di GregorioBOU | Player Performance | — | — | 6.1 | 3.3 9.2 | — | 0% | 46% | 0 | NO BET |
| PetrovićBOU | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| ForsterBOU | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| HillBOU | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| TruffertBOU | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 77% | 0 | NO BET |
| DiakitéBOU | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 53% | 0 | NO BET |
| SmithBOU | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 53% | 0 | NO BET |
| RayanBOU | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.3 | — | 0% | 51% | 0 | NO BET |
| TavernierBOU | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.5 | 0.0 1.6 | — | 0% | 68% | 0 | NO BET |
| ScottBOU | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| KluivertBOU | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.9 | — | 0% | 50% | 0 | NO BET |
| CookBOU | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.1 | — | 0% | 53% | 0 | NO BET |
| AdamsBOU | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.9 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| BrooksBOU | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.5 | 0.0 1.6 | — | 0% | 52% | 0 | NO BET |
| ChristieBOU | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.3 | — | 0% | 58% | 0 | NO BET |
| EvanilsonBOU | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| RodríguezBOU | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| N.GonzalezNEW | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.2 | — | 0% | 58% | 0 | NO BET |
| PopeNEW | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 70% | 0 | NO BET |
| JaouenNEW | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| ThiawNEW | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 79% | 0 | NO BET |
| SchärNEW | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| BotmanNEW | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 70% | 0 | NO BET |
| HallNEW | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 74% | 0 | NO BET |
| BarnesNEW | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 72% | 0 | NO BET |
| ElangaNEW | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 53% | 0 | NO BET |
| J.RamseyNEW | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| J.MurphyNEW | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.1 | — | 0% | 59% | 0 | NO BET |
| L.MileyNEW | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.2 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| WillockNEW | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.0 | — | 0% | 54% | 0 | NO BET |
| SteurNEW | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| WoltemadeNEW | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.9 | — | 0% | 61% | 0 | NO BET |
| WissaNEW | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| BambaNEW | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| SilvaBOU | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 45% | 0 | NO BET |
| HorníčekNEW | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 45% | 0 | NO BET |
| SanchezBOU | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| DedićNEW | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| Di GregorioBOU | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 46% | 0 | NO BET |
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.5%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.2%
Team news & model notes
Newcastle
Joelinton (i), Osula (i), Livramento (i), A.Murphy (u), Burn (i)
Bournemouth
Kroupi.Jr (i), Milosavljević (i), Adli (i), Enes Ünal (u)
Model updated 30/08/2026, 02:25:11 · prices 29/08/2026, 14:31:21