Matches
Nott'm Forest v Spurs Prediction & Match Markets
Sat 5 Sept, 14:00 · Gameweek 3 · Nott'm Forest (home)
Predicted score
1–0
17% likely
Expected goals
1.82 – 0.60
Total 2.41
NFO win
66%
Draw 22%
TOT win
12%
BTTS 37%
Lineup confidence
79%
20,000 simulations
Minimum odds 1.50
Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.
On
Three best fixed-odds bets
Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated
#1 · Game
33Under 8.5 Corners
Total match corners
Model 44% vs market 42%
Price 7/5EV +5.8%Conf 76%
Three best spread bets
One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently
#1 · Game
31BUY Total booking points at 42.00
Total booking points
Model 44.20 (range 21.20–74.20)
Edge 2.20Conf 76%
#2 · Game
29SELL Total match goals at 2.50
Total match goals
Model 2.41 (range 1.00–5.00)
Edge 0.09Conf 76%
#3 · Game
27SELL Total match corners at 9.6
Total match corners
Model 9.3 (range 5.0–14.0)
Edge 0.30Conf 76%
Predicted line-ups
Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model
Nott'm Forest
4-5-1 · Medium confidence
- 1SelsGKP
- 2MilenkovićDEF
- 3N.WilliamsDEF
- 4MurilloDEF
- 5AinaDEF
- 6Gibbs-WhiteMID
- 7DominguezMID
- 8NdoyeMID
- 9SchlagerMID
- 10McAteeMID
- 11Igor JesusFWD
Bench: Hudson-Odoi, Jair Cunha, Hutchinson, Morato
Out: I.Sangaré, Savona
Full Nott'm Forest predicted XI →Spurs
4-5-1 · Medium confidence
- 1DubravkaGKP
- 2Van HeckeDEF
- 3Van de VenDEF
- 4SenesiDEF
- 5Pedro PorroDEF
- 6FernandesMID
- 7TonaliMID
- 8BentancurMID
- 9GrayMID
- 10TelMID
- 11RicharlisonFWD
Bench: Gallagher, Marmoush, Bergvall, Robertson
Doubts: Sávio, Maddison
Out: P.M.Sarr, Kudus, Xavi, Odobert, Kulusevski
Full Spurs predicted XI →Match spread markets
Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line
| Market | Sell | Buy | Model | Most likely | Floor → ceiling | Edge | Prob | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total booking points | 38.00 | 42.00 | 44.20 | 42.40 | 21.2 74.2 | 2.20 | 58% | 76% | 31 | BUY |
| Total match goals | 2.50 | 2.70 | 2.41 | 2.00 | 1.0 5.0 | 0.09 | 58% | 76% | 29 | SELL |
| Total match corners | 9.6 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 5.0 14.0 | 0.3 | 56% | 76% | 27 | SELL |
| Total match shots | — | — | 25.2 | 24.0 | 17.0 34.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots on target | — | — | 7.3 | 6.0 | 4.0 11.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match fouls | — | — | 23.9 | 23.0 | 16.0 33.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Goal supremacy (home) | — | — | 1.22 | 1.00 | -1.0 3.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Shot supremacy (home) | — | — | 9.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 16.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| SOT supremacy (home) | — | — | 2.3 | 2.0 | -1.0 6.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Corner supremacy (home) | — | — | 2.4 | 2.0 | -1.0 7.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card supremacy (home) | — | — | -0.77 | -1.00 | -3.0 2.0 | — | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Match fixed-odds markets
Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only
| Market | Selection | Price | Implied | Model | Fair odds | EV | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match corners | Under 10.5 Corners | 8/151.53 | 65% | 66% | 1.51 | +1.4% | 76% | 47 | NO BET |
| Total match corners | Under 9.5 Corners | 5/61.83 | 55% | 56% | 1.80 | +1.8% | 76% | 37 | NO BET |
| Total match goals | Under 2.5 Goals | 8/111.73 | 58% | 58% | 1.74 | -0.5% | 76% | 35 | NO BET |
| Total match corners | Under 8.5 Corners | 7/52.40 | 42% | 44% | 2.27 | +5.8% | 76% | 33 | LEAN |
| Total match corners | Under 7.5 Corners | 11/53.20 | 31% | 32% | 3.10 | +3.4% | 76% | 27 | LEAN |
| Total match goals | Under 1.5 Goals | 11/53.20 | 31% | 32% | 3.15 | +1.5% | 76% | 26 | NO BET |
| Total match corners | Under 6.5 Corners | 15/44.75 | 21% | 22% | 4.61 | +3.0% | 76% | 24 | LEAN |
| Total match corners | Over 8.5 Corners | 1/21.50 | 67% | 56% | 1.79 | -16.2% | 76% | 24 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 5.5 Corners | 6/17.00 | 14% | 13% | 7.68 | -8.9% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 1/12.00 | 50% | 42% | 2.36 | -15.2% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 3.5 Goals | 13/53.60 | 28% | 23% | 4.38 | -17.8% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 9.5 Corners | 5/61.83 | 55% | 44% | 2.25 | -18.5% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Under 0.5 Goals | 7/18.00 | 13% | 10% | 10.27 | -22.1% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 10.5 Corners | 13/102.30 | 43% | 34% | 2.96 | -22.2% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 4.5 Corners | 10/111.00 | 9% | 7% | 14.84 | -25.9% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 11.5 Corners | 2/13.00 | 33% | 25% | 4.06 | -26.2% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 4.5 Goals | 11/26.50 | 15% | 11% | 9.33 | -30.4% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 12.5 Corners | 3/14.00 | 25% | 17% | 5.80 | -31.0% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Under 3.5 Corners | 22/123.00 | 4% | 3% | 35.09 | -34.4% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 13.5 Corners | 9/25.50 | 18% | 12% | 8.63 | -36.3% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 14.5 Corners | 13/27.50 | 13% | 7% | 13.35 | -43.8% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 6.5 Goals | 28/129.00 | 3% | 2% | 58.82 | -50.7% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 5.5 Goals | 10/111.00 | 9% | 4% | 23.09 | -52.4% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 15.5 Corners | 9/110.00 | 10% | 5% | 21.53 | -53.6% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 16.5 Corners | 14/115.00 | 7% | 3% | 35.97 | -58.3% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 18.5 Corners | 40/141.00 | 2% | 1% | 108.70 | -62.3% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match corners | Over 17.5 Corners | 22/123.00 | 4% | 2% | 61.35 | -62.5% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Total match goals | Over 7.5 Goals | 66/167.00 | 1% | 1% | 190.48 | -64.8% | 76% | 19 | AVOID |
| Match outcome (model price) | NFO win | — | — | 66% | 1.51 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Draw | — | — | 22% | 4.52 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | TOT win | — | — | 12% | 8.56 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score | — | — | 37% | 2.70 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NFO -1 goal handicap | — | — | 40% | 2.51 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | TOT +1 goal handicap | — | — | 60% | 1.66 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NFO draw no bet | — | — | 85% | 1.18 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NFO double chance | — | — | 88% | 1.13 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | TOT double chance | — | — | 34% | 2.96 | — | 76% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Player fixed-odds markets
Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only
No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.
Player spread markets
Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines
| Player | Market | Sell | Buy | Model | Floor → ceiling | Edge | Prob | Conf | Opp | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van HeckeTOT | Player Performance | — | — | 18.1 | 12.3 24.8 | — | 0% | 74% | 0 | NO BET |
| DelapNFO | Player Performance | — | — | 7.7 | 1.1 16.4 | — | 0% | 54% | 0 | NO BET |
| TonaliTOT | Player Performance | — | — | 16.8 | 10.9 23.7 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| SelsNFO | Player Performance | — | — | 4.7 | 2.5 6.7 | — | 0% | 71% | 0 | NO BET |
| N.WilliamsNFO | Player Performance | — | — | 15.3 | 8.7 23.0 | — | 0% | 74% | 0 | NO BET |
| MoratoNFO | Player Performance | — | — | 12.0 | 6.2 18.6 | — | 0% | 54% | 0 | NO BET |
| MilenkovićNFO | Player Performance | — | — | 10.3 | 5.8 15.9 | — | 0% | 79% | 0 | NO BET |
| MurilloNFO | Player Performance | — | — | 13.3 | 7.7 19.8 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| AinaNFO | Player Performance | — | — | 8.1 | 3.0 14.2 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| Jair CunhaNFO | Player Performance | — | — | 12.8 | 7.2 19.2 | — | 0% | 54% | 0 | NO BET |
| O.RichardsNFO | Player Performance | — | — | 13.5 | 7.2 20.8 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| Gibbs-WhiteNFO | Player Performance | — | — | 13.1 | 6.8 21.2 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| Hudson-OdoiNFO | Player Performance | — | — | 9.7 | 4.2 16.8 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| NdoyeNFO | Player Performance | — | — | 6.3 | 1.6 12.1 | — | 0% | 53% | 0 | NO BET |
| HutchinsonNFO | Player Performance | — | — | 10.2 | 4.2 17.9 | — | 0% | 54% | 0 | NO BET |
| DominguezNFO | Player Performance | — | — | 15.8 | 8.0 24.7 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| YatesNFO | Player Performance | — | — | 13.7 | 6.6 22.1 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| WoodNFO | Player Performance | — | — | 7.8 | 1.9 16.5 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| Igor JesusNFO | Player Performance | — | — | 10.1 | 3.2 19.2 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| DubravkaTOT | Player Performance | — | — | 5.5 | 3.0 8.1 | — | 0% | 68% | 0 | NO BET |
| SenesiTOT | Player Performance | — | — | 17.6 | 11.7 24.4 | — | 0% | 79% | 0 | NO BET |
| Pedro PorroTOT | Player Performance | — | — | 13.7 | 7.3 21.0 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| DansoTOT | Player Performance | — | — | 13.8 | 7.6 20.8 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| RobertsonTOT | Player Performance | — | — | 13.8 | 9.0 19.4 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| Van de VenTOT | Player Performance | — | — | 11.2 | 5.9 17.4 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| UdogieTOT | Player Performance | — | — | 10.5 | 5.0 17.0 | — | 0% | 65% | 0 | NO BET |
| KudusTOT | Player Performance | — | — | 8.7 | 3.1 15.8 | — | 0% | 71% | 0 | NO BET |
| TelTOT | Player Performance | — | — | 10.5 | 4.7 17.7 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| BentancurTOT | Player Performance | — | — | 14.5 | 7.8 22.2 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| P.M.SarrTOT | Player Performance | — | — | 11.9 | 5.4 19.7 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| GallagherTOT | Player Performance | — | — | 7.3 | 2.3 13.5 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| BergvallTOT | Player Performance | — | — | 5.7 | 1.3 11.3 | — | 0% | 63% | 0 | NO BET |
| GrayTOT | Player Performance | — | — | 9.8 | 4.9 16.0 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| FernandesTOT | Player Performance | — | — | 15.3 | 8.1 23.5 | — | 0% | 74% | 0 | NO BET |
| SolankeTOT | Player Performance | — | — | 8.1 | 1.9 16.5 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| RicharlisonTOT | Player Performance | — | — | 6.2 | 1.0 13.6 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| SchlagerNFO | Player Performance | — | — | 14.1 | 7.7 21.9 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| DiomandeNFO | Player Performance | — | — | 9.4 | 3.2 17.0 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| Van HeckeTOT | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 74% | 0 | NO BET |
| DelapNFO | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.4 | — | 0% | 54% | 0 | NO BET |
| TonaliTOT | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| SelsNFO | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 71% | 0 | NO BET |
| N.WilliamsNFO | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 74% | 0 | NO BET |
| MoratoNFO | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 54% | 0 | NO BET |
| MilenkovićNFO | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.2 | — | 0% | 79% | 0 | NO BET |
| MurilloNFO | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| AinaNFO | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| Jair CunhaNFO | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 54% | 0 | NO BET |
| O.RichardsNFO | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 49% | 0 | NO BET |
| Gibbs-WhiteNFO | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.5 | 0.0 1.6 | — | 0% | 76% | 0 | NO BET |
| Hudson-OdoiNFO | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.1 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| NdoyeNFO | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 53% | 0 | NO BET |
| HutchinsonNFO | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 54% | 0 | NO BET |
| DominguezNFO | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.0 | — | 0% | 48% | 0 | NO BET |
| YatesNFO | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.7 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| WoodNFO | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.4 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| Igor JesusNFO | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.5 | 0.0 1.5 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| DubravkaTOT | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | — | 0% | 68% | 0 | NO BET |
| SenesiTOT | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 79% | 0 | NO BET |
| Pedro PorroTOT | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 66% | 0 | NO BET |
| DansoTOT | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.2 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| RobertsonTOT | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.4 | — | 0% | 62% | 0 | NO BET |
| Van de VenTOT | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 67% | 0 | NO BET |
| UdogieTOT | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 0.1 | — | 0% | 65% | 0 | NO BET |
| KudusTOT | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 0.9 | — | 0% | 71% | 0 | NO BET |
| TelTOT | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.1 | — | 0% | 56% | 0 | NO BET |
| BentancurTOT | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| P.M.SarrTOT | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| GallagherTOT | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.3 | — | 0% | 57% | 0 | NO BET |
| BergvallTOT | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 63% | 0 | NO BET |
| GrayTOT | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.6 | — | 0% | 55% | 0 | NO BET |
| FernandesTOT | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 0.5 | — | 0% | 74% | 0 | NO BET |
| SolankeTOT | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 64% | 0 | NO BET |
| RicharlisonTOT | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 1.2 | — | 0% | 60% | 0 | NO BET |
| SchlagerNFO | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.2 | 0.0 1.0 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
| DiomandeNFO | Shots on Target | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 1.4 | — | 0% | 47% | 0 | NO BET |
Most likely scorelines
- 1–016.6%
- 2–014.7%
- 0–09.7%
Team news & model notes
Nott'm Forest
Savona (i), I.Sangaré (i), Bakwa (u)
Spurs
Vicario (u), Xavi (i), Romero (u), Spence (u), Odobert (i)
Model updated 30/08/2026, 02:25:13 · prices 29/08/2026, 14:31:21